PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might not be as good in the long range though.

We shall see.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a definite round two on this run.  Glad to see the stronger anomaly centers again.

 

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might not be as good in the long range though.

 Who will win? Hurry place your bets with our bookie Tiger! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

 

 Who will win? Hurry place your bets with our bookie Tiger! 

I'll put $15 on SnowWiz

[Deweydog]

[Cloud]

This is the wettest meteorological fall on record at SEA. 

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is the wettest meteorological fall on record at SEA. 

 

Drought map still shows drought over 90% of the West.   But they need a color other than white for the non-drought area of western WA.   The need a deep green color to represent ridiculously wet.   If we could pump out our water to the rest of the West... we could probably resolve all drought conditions from here to Mexico.   Nature is being just stupid... wasting all the moisture available across the Pacific by drenching the already the drenched areas where the ground can't hold another drop of water.

[MWG]

[Omegaraptor]

Just drove back to Corvallis. Can’t say I’ve ever used my car’s AC on November 28 before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MWG said:

Ohhhh brrrr... Winter of the Century type stuff. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad run. Just have to get through one more week of torching...

[van city]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a bad run. Just have to get through one more week of torching...

Easy there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, van city said:

Easy there. 

Kind of 50/50 there... a lot of members want to go cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 1971 redux.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible tongue of maritime polar air blasting toward us late in this run.  Could be fun times ahead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW. 

[The Swamp]

I'm not a scientist and I struggle to read these here models posted but I can remember for the last 50 years or so when we have these warm southerly AR type systems we usually flip the switch at some point and go into the deep freezer.  Sometimes it's a quick hitter and other times it's a week to ten days of cold either with or with out snow.

Once this things flips, and it will, all your teeth gnashing about hour 384 will be forgotten because the goodies will suddenly appear within 7 days and the signal will get stronger and it will happen.

I'll say it again. December 10th the good stuff begins. 

[snow_wizard]

Very snowy run.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Kolk1604]

19 minutes ago, MWG said:

Lol I don't see Medford so I'm not sure the closest station to you

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1971 redux.

Seattle area got 20-30 inches that January.

I can only imagine what the outlying areas received. Perhaps Snowwizard and others can provide more context for that event.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I'm not a scientist and I struggle to read these here models posted but I can remember for the last 50 years or so when we have these warm southerly AR type systems we usually flip the switch at some point and go into the deep freezer.  Sometimes it's a quick hitter and other times it's a week to ten days of cold either with or with out snow.

Once this things flips, and it will, all your teeth gnashing about hour 384 will be forgotten because the goodies will suddenly appear within 7 days and the signal will get stronger and it will happen.

I'll say it again. December 10th the good stuff begins. 

This is a really good take.    

The GFS after about day 7 or 8 is a complete crapshoot... and has tended to be much more extreme in both directions since the upgrade.     None of it means much at all.   But then suddenly something totally different will appear out of nowhere and be very close and its game on.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.08” so far 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1971 redux.

I've had my eye on that analog.  A somewhat colder / more amplified version of 2007-08.  The EPS lends a lot of support to this outcome.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is why this location sucks.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice to see that snowstorm still hit the PNW In the mid range. Not worried about the specifics right now. Great run!!!

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a really good take.    

The GFS after about day 7 or 8 is a complete crapshoot... and has tended to be much more extreme in both directions since the upgrade.     None of it means much at all.   But then suddenly something totally different will appear out of nowhere and be very close and its game on.

You can feel we are getting there.  I think this ridiculous wet period has nearly run its course.  At this point some lowland snow in December is seeming like a decent bet, but beyond that we have a ways to go.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can feel we are getting there.  I think this ridiculous wet period has nearly run its course.  At this point some lowland snow in December is seeming like a decent bet, but beyond that we have a ways to go.

Hopefully... but I am getting a nagging feeling this could be one of those wall-to-wall wet winters.   The blocking always seems to get to muted as it gets closer.       I feel like I have been chasing dry periods in the long range for 2 months and it never arrives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully... but I am getting a nagging feeling this could be one of those wall-to-wall wet winters.   The blocking always seems to get to muted as it gets closer.       I feel like I have been chasing dry periods in the long range for 2 months and it never arrives.

Maybe at some point it will be anomalously wet down here. 

[MWG]

17 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lol I don't see Medford so I'm not sure the closest station to you

Rogue Valley International Airport. I guess we will have to wait till next week for better low temps. 

[Omegaraptor]

Why does every building on this campus have the heat on full blast?

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a really good take.    

The GFS after about day 7 or 8 is a complete crapshoot... and has tended to be much more extreme in both directions since the upgrade.     None of it means much at all.   But then suddenly something totally different will appear out of nowhere and be very close and its game on.

Some of those p-type maps look suspect to me as well.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just need another 1/3” of rain to be the wettest fall ever here. 

[The Blob]

Such a November looking sky

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice mild November afternoon. 56/51 on the day... currently at our low for the day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Some fun GFS/ECMWF Op runs today and before Day 10. From snow storms to wind storm. GEM not so much.

00z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 44 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 12 (Past 4 runs)

[Phishy Wx]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

60-65 mph gusts with that storm system in the mid range. 

Would certainly fit with the extreme weather narrative this year to get a big windstorm.

Could I get the E WA version of that?

[Gradient Keeper]

Ah well at least we return to more typical La Nina conditions and build the snowpack.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, snow drift said:

It was a dud up here, too.

somehow KGEG still recorded ~50" of snow, technically above normal but yeah it was super warm and nothing stuck around more than a couple days

[Deweydog]

Looks pertty dry after tomorrow.