PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Appears as if Bellingham have broken a handful of daily rainfall totals this fall. 
 

 

Speaking of 1999..

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

That is an abrupt snow line.

I am talking about the difference between nothing and a light coating... its not that dramatic but it is noticeable at times.  

What is more interesting is watching the snow line on the ridge behind our house.    Its often a nearly perfect line across the ridge and if you look closely you can actually see trees on that line with snow on the top branches and no snow on the lower branches.   Its fascinating.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yup unfortunately 

Looks OK to me! Of course, it’s the operational, not the ensemble (not to mention ).

[snow drift]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am talking about the difference between nothing and a light coating... its not that dramatic but it is noticeable at times.  

What is more interesting is watching the snow line on the ridge behind our house.    Its often a nearly perfect line across the ridge and if you look closely you can actually see trees with snow on the top branches and no snow on the lower branches.   Its fascinating.  

Yeah, that happens around here at times.

[Gradient Keeper]

King GEM

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 16 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2nd system early next week is way further north on this run. Looks like our unabated torch will continue until further notice. ;). 

yep, instead of heading south and reinforcing NW flow, it books it into British Columbia and sends gobs of warm SW flow into the whole region.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

42 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Appears as if Bellingham have broken a handful of daily rainfall totals this fall. 
 

 

BLI is now at over 13" for the month (and counting).

Some rain gauges on the North Shore are now pushing 25" for the month.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

yep, instead of heading south and reinforcing NW flow, it books it into British Columbia and sends gobs of warm SW flow into the whole region.  

Is it too late to plant bananas or am I okay?

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Unsurprisingly the next seven days are completely wasted. It just astounds me how the pattern progresses. Conventional wisdom would convey that strong NPac ridging would force deep troughing in its lee, but in this case, not so. Instead, for whatever reason, another ridge just builds right on top of us. It's "troughing" is basically a thin notch south of Anchorage where height anomalies are less positive. Don't know what to make of it.

It’s hard to dislodge that Alaska vortex. Much easier to bump it east into Greenland/NE-Canada than send it south into BC.

Would need Eurasian help for the latter.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am talking about the difference between nothing and a light coating... its not that dramatic but it is noticeable at times.  

What is more interesting is watching the snow line on the ridge behind our house.    Its often a nearly perfect line across the ridge and if you look closely you can actually see trees on that line with snow on the top branches and no snow on the lower branches.   Its fascinating.  

I love, love , love this stuff. Wintertime melting dynamics w/ varying precip rates and local topography/ low level temp profiles changing drastically due to microclimates.... That stuff captivates me for some reason

[Christensen87]

For once, can the 00z stop being a buzzkill.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow drift said:

Is it too late to plant bananas or am I okay?

I’m thinking taro would be the crop for Whatcom County and the Lower Mainland. It’s aquatic….

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yup unfortunately 

Who could have known that would happen ???

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

For once, can the 00z stop being a buzzkill.

He's the studious and largely sober brother of the druncle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love, love , love this stuff. Wintertime melting dynamics w/ varying precip rates and local topography/ low level temp profiles changing drastically due to microclimates.... That stuff captivates me for some reason

One of the things that impressed me in my first Seattle winter was the storm that dusted the hilltop neighborhoods of the city white while lower areas were bare. I had thought that “snow on the higher hills” referred to the foothills well east of the city proper. Nope.

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love, love , love this stuff. Wintertime melting dynamics w/ varying precip rates and local topography/ low level temp profiles changing drastically due to microclimates.... That stuff captivates me for some reason

There’s been a few times here in Tacoma where the snow line starts at 150’ or so. Nothing down at the waterfront but a dusting at my house at 300’. I remember this happening in late February 2018. Started snowing when I was at the waterfront and about halfway walking up the hill it was sticking. Accumulating snow level finally got down to sea level overnight and there was a 1/2” down there the next morning but 2” of snow at my house. That stuff is always fascinating to see. Just a few blocks down the hill barely anything but a winter wonderland up on top of the hill. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Painful

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing even remotely interesting so far on this run.

[Phishy Wx]

This Met on American WX is east coast focused but good.  some of his thoughts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55776-some-thoughts-on-the-winter-2021-22-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=6193520

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s been a few times here in Tacoma where the snow line starts at 150’ or so. Nothing down at the waterfront but a dusting at my house at 300’. I remember this happening in late February 2018. Started snowing when I was at the waterfront and about halfway walking up the hill it was sticking. Accumulating snow level finally got down to sea level overnight and there was a 1/2” down there the next morning but 2” of snow at my house. That stuff is always fascinating to see. Just a few blocks down the hill barely anything but a winter wonderland up on top of the hill. 

I remember driving through fife on I-5 after a weak snow storm.
 

I could clearly see snow on the hilltop area with white roofs and nothing near sea level. Kind of cool. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[GobBluth]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Kona low moves too far west for optimal blocking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Not as bad as some recent GEM runs. 

[snow drift]

Well, la niña winters can be late bloomers. Who knows, right?  Although, a warm and wet winter may not be a bad forecast this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

November 28th. Winter hasn't even started. Relax people Lol. Please.

12z ECMWF in 13 hours 2 minutes

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

I remember driving through fife on I-5 after a weak snow storm.
 

I could clearly see snow on the hilltop area with white roofs and nothing near sea level. Kind of cool. 

Yeah it’s always really cool too see…I remember in January 2020 it was a similar situation too. Didn’t end up sticking down on the waterfront but we had 1/2” of snow that day literally just a quarter of a mile away and 300’ up. Sometimes microclimates can be quite interesting around here February 2021 was also pretty interesting just 5 miles east they probably had half the snow we had here we got buried but the east wind ruined it out towards federal way and Covington. 

[TT-SEA]

Strange AR passage today... it peaked at 63 in North Bend around noon before the rain started.    Now the rain is done and its still 56 this evening.     Normally it takes much colder air to shut off the rain in these events.    

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

This Met on American WX is east coast focused but good.  some of his thoughts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55776-some-thoughts-on-the-winter-2021-22-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=6193520

Interesting. He’s mentioning the same Eurasia/NW-Pacific patterns I was referencing yesterday. And I agree with his general take re: how to flip the EPO.

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nothing even remotely interesting so far on this run.

Lame

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... I definitely haven't given up on December.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah... I definitely haven't given up on December.

Its good that you haven't given up on December on November 28th.  

[Christensen87]

I’m just glad that next weekend, we start getting into a cooler, more December-like pattern. Everyone is putting up their lights already, but I just can’t get into the Christmas spirit right now with these warm temps. Definitely keeping an eye on that low a week from now, it’d be nice to have some snow BEFORE Christmas for once. 

[snow_wizard]

This run is far from terrible.  Lots of potential and certainly colder than it's been.

[Snownerd3000]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

This Met on American WX is east coast focused but good.  some of his thoughts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55776-some-thoughts-on-the-winter-2021-22-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=6193520

Great share! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range is decent...

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I’m just glad that next weekend, we start getting into a cooler, more December-like pattern. Everyone is putting up their lights already, but I just can’t get into the Christmas spirit right now with these warm temps. Definitely keeping an eye on that low a week from now, it’d be nice to have some snow BEFORE Christmas for once. 

I have lights everywhere!! Inside/outside upstairs/downstairs…It’s bright! We are ready for December and snow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have lights everywhere!! Inside/outside upstairs/downstairs…It’s bright! We are ready for December and snow! 

Wishing you and yours a snowy holiday season.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice.  Another run with snow and some decent cold.  Maybe very cold at the very end.