PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Yakima ensembles. It's always a good sign when we see high temperatures cooling significantly to near freezing for the Columbia Basin. A cluster of members drop below 32. This signals colder air spilling southward from Canada into eastern Washington. PDX and Seattle also turn chilly with high temps in the upper 30s to near 40. This is of course way out there into the end of the 2nd week of December, but encouraging signs nonetheless. Hopefully over the next 3-5 days we'll see this pattern bumped ahead with time.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Yet another monumental rain bust for Portland. All high-res models had us getting .50” - 1” through this morning. Those were the 00z runs from yesterday. Looks like we’ll end up with .20”. My house is at .13”. How does this continually happen? 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Wow 06z delivers some goodies. Looks like hr 138 is a nice little shot of wet snow for me, and from that point on it's storm after storm with precip at near freezing temps. Lots of chances for snow. The end of that run is just a monster system.

You weren't kidding.

7 feet at Snoqualmie Pass and almost 10 feet of snow at some location in the Gorge for some reason over the next couple weeks.   

[Gradient Keeper]

As I mentioned 6z GEFS shows colder air dropping south out of Canada into eastern Washington. Omak sees a nice dip with high temperatures nosedive holding into the low 20s and a cluster of members into the teens. All promising signs!

[smerfylicious]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You weren't kidding.

7 feet at Snoqualmie Pass and almost 10 feet of snow at some location in the Gorge for some reason over the next couple weeks.   

We both might grab our first powder of the year on the 6th. From there it gets better and better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The cold in Alaska is pretty incredible right now. Nome is running a -13 departure for November. 

[TT-SEA]

It not raining this morning!    And it might not rain much today.    Currently 52 and cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 with moderate rain here. The hills are squeezing the juice this morning...

[Chewbacca Defense]

Held at 1.99" for a good chunk of the evening, then a line of showers moved through right before midnight pushing us up to 2.04" on the day.  That gives us 3" exactly for the Saturday/Sunday period, and I've picked up another .13" since midnight.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 18 minutes. I don't expect any improvements before Day 7, but it would be D**n nice. More interested is how the ensembles look Day 10+ handling the Aleutian ridge/Gulf of Alaska block, and WPAC jet.

[MossMan]

I’ve done it!!! Time to celebrate!!

15” of liquid for the month!!!! 

[MossMan]

It snowed at my house 7yrs ago today!

And then winter was over. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Mild morning 52 here. We’re over +2 on the month now not quite as warm as 2008 and 2016 but still pretty warm month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It snowed at my house 7yrs ago today!

And then winter was over. 

Oh yeah I remember that little cold snap.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All time warmest November likely out of

reach for SLE, but they will probably get top 5.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It snowed at my house 7yrs ago today!

And then winter was over. 

Facebook just reminded me of that event on this day in 2014...

 

[GHweatherChris]

31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’ve done it!!! Time to celebrate!!

15” of liquid for the month!!!! 

That's it?  Meh

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Facebook just reminded me of that event on this day in 2014...

 

It never snowed in Tahoe that winter. I picked up a whopping 11" Nov-March (Average is 150"). I never had an icicle on my roof as most of the snow storms were a T - 2" that would melt during the day. Literally the year without a winter. There was no snow pack to measure at the top of Echo summit on April 1st for the  first time in recorded history. Brings back horrible memories. 

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Facebook just reminded me of that event on this day in 2014...

 

I also recorded a low of 14 degrees on November 13th of that year. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[smerfylicious]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

A small improvement here...Kona low a bit west, ridge also further west with a bit of amplification...go on, reel me in

[AlTahoe]

What a terrible start for the western snowpack. Gfs is still kicking the can down the road. Last week we were looking at cold air and a pattern change Dec 5th. Then the 8th. Now I am guessing we will have to wait till around Christmas for any kind of meaningful change. Lame. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm a bit slow posting the 12z GFS and other things as we have guys installing new floors, so I'm not all that available.

Day 9

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 850s @Kayla nice chilly shot for you!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3! I meant Day 10. I WISH it was at Day 3! Wait until December we're going to see model/ensembles off the charts cold! 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[van city]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3! I meant Day 10. I WISH it was at Day 3! Wait until December we're going to see model/ensembles off the charts cold! 

Can someone post the 10 day snowfall map, please. 

[GobBluth]

Far too progressive and overwater to be anything resembling an arctic blast, but it will be nice to enter a pattern to catch up on the mountain snow.

[TacomaWaWx]

24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm liking the dryness set for this week. By the end of the week less than a quarter of an inch of rain has fallen, mainly from some light rain tomorrow morning and some very light rain again on Thursday morning. Otherwise, it's mostly dry.

Post-Thanksgiving miracle. 

The firehose had to take a break eventually. 

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

Holy 2007/08 analog batman.

 

2 snowiest winters in KGEG history

[FroYoBro]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I could certainly imagine a worse pattern than this...

Yeah, the GFS keeps pushing interesting troughs to days 10-15 in the models. But hopefully it eventually locks into a real one. I would love to see a deep trough to start our mountain snowpack to get the winter started. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Far too progressive and overwater to be anything resembling an arctic blast, but it will be nice to enter a pattern to catch up on the mountain snow.

Yep chilly La Nina pattern. Day 7-11 progressing as I expected maybe a touch colder. I'm eager to see the ensembles.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12 for poops n giggles

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

@van city

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At some point we will see something better. Unfortunately it looks like we just torch through the first week of December now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had 0.61" of rain since midnight when I left the house around 8am. Some clear skies now down in Salem. 

[van city]

The Weather Network Winter forecast for those intrested to read. 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canada-2022-winter-forecast-snow-and-cold-temperature-predictions?utm_campaign=WinterForecast2022&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter_Article&utm_content=TWN-Generic

[Gradient Keeper]

Beautiful

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like 850s bottom out at -7c through D12...

Cold enough for a rain/snow mix down to the lowest elevations.