PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

We must have a different definition of torching, as I don't call highs in the 30s a "torch".

Perhaps that's just me.

That isn't the first week of December. He is right that the first week has trended pretty mild. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

We must have a different definition of torching, as I don't call highs in the 30s a "torch".

Perhaps that's just me.

Those are highs on December 10th... I said first week of December. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Somebody able to bring me to their place when the mountain snow starts lol? I've gone the longest in my whole life without seeing snow now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It does seem like at least the operational GFS has been pretty consistent showing cold troughing taking hold late next week. 

Something else I would mention, is looking at a lot of the record lows being broken or challenged in Western and South Central Alaska right now, many of them are from 1990 or 1948... Which is cool to see, also it shows that Alaskan cold this time of year definitely does not doom us to a 1999-2000 redux. 

[Phil]

Still looks like 2007/08. And the operational GFS is the only model that’s even that good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

First full week of December includes December 10th. If you were talking about this week, I would have thought you said "this week has trended to be a torch".

To clarify, by week I meant first 7 days. 

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

That isn't the first week of December. He is right that the first week has trended pretty mild. 

And that will most likely slide east as everything else shown in the extended has. 

[LowerGarfield]

55 and overcast when I checked an hour ago. Light showers too.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does seem like at least the operational GFS has been pretty consistent showing cold troughing taking hold late next week. 

Something else I would mention, is looking at a lot of the record lows being broken or challenged in Western and South Central Alaska right now, many of them are from 1990 or 1948... Which is cool to see, also it shows that Alaskan cold this time of year definitely does not doom us to a 1999-2000 redux. 

These +EPO winters are mild more often than not. We just remember the ones that weren’t due to confirmation bias, but the system state is what it is.

Something has to dislodge that vortex. It’s not easy to do. Models often show crazy stuff in the clown range, but it is unlikely to verify in reality.

[MossMan]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS found the MDMA

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Still looks like 2007/08. And the operational GFS is the only model that’s even that good.

 2007-2008 feels like the most likely scenario for us as well. That winter it took until the first of Jan for a mega storm to spin up and then we had 6 weeks of cold storms. After the super bowl in 2008 that was it for storms in the Sierra and spring started. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

These +EPO winters are mild more often than not. We just remember the ones that weren’t due to confirmation bias, but the system state is what it is.

Something has to dislodge that vortex. It’s not easy to do. Models often show crazy stuff in the clown range, but it is unlikely to verify in reality.

I wasn't saying one or the other really, but many times cold in Alaska does portend cold later on down here. I'd much rather have legit cold on this side of the pole. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

 2007-2008 feels like the most likely scenario for us as well. That winter it took until the first of Jan for a mega storm to spin up and then we had 6 weeks of cold storms. After the super bowl in 2008 that was it for storms in the Sierra and spring started. 

I could see that being a pattern this winter. Chilly NW flow that absolutely buries You, Andrew, Tim, Brian-Leavenworth, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snow maps would be a lot more pepto if this thing had come in just a bit further south...

Really strong low though. 

[paulb/eugene]

Modeled 850 temps not supportive of valley floor snow, not even close .  Looks like  1000’-1500’ snow level in Willamette Valley

[Phil]

For what little it’s worth, I’m not concerned about the Cascade snowpack. I’m pretty sure that will recover substantially through the winter. Probably will finish above average.

Meaningful lowland snow is another question.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Modeled 850 temps not supportive of valley floor snow, not even close .  Looks like  1000’-1500’ snow level in Willamette Valley

So weird with the 522 thickness line crossing and having rain. This location sucks.

[kokaneekidz]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And here comes the pretty colors for the lowlands...

What gives.! Is there a heater over Fife?

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs) Much improved with the first chilly trough digging back cooler air towards us. Ridge is a few notches more amplified. IF this is a trend we're going into a colder pattern folks! C'MON!!!!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Final 850mb frame. Some seepage through the Cascades.

2016-esque 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

For what little it’s worth, I’m not concerned about the Cascade snowpack. I’m pretty sure that will recover substantially through the winter. Probably will finish above average.

Meaningful lowland snow is another question.

I think we will atleast get something. I don’t think we see a December 2008 or February 2019 redux…but maybe one or two shots of snow and a few days in the low to mid 30s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So weird with the 522 thickness line crossing and having rain. This location sucks.

It’s really hard to have accumulating snow at the valley floor with onshore flow. If gradients go flat that would be another story. 

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS found the MDMA

quick shots.  More like DMT

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Final snow frame...

Oh wow 3 feet here.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM much improved Day 7+

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Oh wow 3 feet here.  

Swamp showing maybe 2 inches You could say we live in two different worlds

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the EC throws in its hat into the ring on this then we can start to get a little more excited.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks a lot like the GFS...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I could see that being a pattern this winter. Chilly NW flow that absolutely buries You, Andrew, Tim, Brian-Leavenworth, etc.

Let's have a snow pack. lol

[AlTahoe]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

I could see that being a pattern this winter. Chilly NW flow that absolutely buries You, Andrew, Tim, Brian-Leavenworth, etc.

We picked up 140" in about 5 weeks time. What was memorable about that winter was the amount of drifting snow we received. We rarely get snow dry enough to drift in town and that 5 week barrage was all very cold storms. Water content was low though, so we suffered another drought year. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We picked up 140" in about 5 weeks time. What was memorable about that winter was the amount of drifting snow we received. We rarely get snow dry enough to drift in town and that 5 week barrage was all very cold storms. Water content was low though, so we suffered another drought year. 

not going to lie your avatar reminds me of a glass of milk. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

not going to lie your avatar reminds me of a glass of milk. lol

Haha, that's what I always think it is at first glance. 

[Phishy Wx]

Dozens trapped in England's Highest Pub

 

https://twitter.com/samgmorrissey/status/1465360864509194242?s=20

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dozens trapped in England's Highest Pub

 

https://twitter.com/samgmorrissey/status/1465360864509194242?s=20

Just awful. Hope they are okay.  

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dozens trapped in England's Highest Pub

 

https://twitter.com/samgmorrissey/status/1465360864509194242?s=20

[Snownerd3000]

Dear lort, just caught the 12z GFS.  Here's hoping that mass of cold air towards the clown range verifies.  Nothing better than very cold air locked up in interior BC to get reinforcing shots of cold for the PNW. Funny, the timing looks to jive with what a number of the Weekly and GFS ext forecasts have shown.

Here is the most recent Weekly control for the week starting the 15th.

and the ensemble mean.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dear lort, just caught the 12z GFS.  Here's hoping that mass of cold air towards the clown range verifies.  Nothing better than very cold air locked up in interior BC to get reinforcing shots of cold for the PNW. Funny, the timing looks to jive with what a number of the Weekly and GFS ext forecasts have shown.

Here is the most recent Weekly control for the week starting the 15th.

and the ensemble mean.

Actually the most recent one comes out today.  This is from last Thursday