Canadian guy Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Anyone wanna join me in the art room for some after384hours extrapolations? I’ll bring refreshments! Jim will be joining you this evening about this! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, snow drift said: 07 was great for snow. I don't feel too good about this one. 2007/08 was trash here. Only 7” of snow all winter. Plus some ice. Would much rather repeat 2008/09 but that’s unlikely to be a good pattern match. March 2008 was violent af, though. Had two wind events with hurricane force gusts in the span of 10 days. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Only 10 days until sunsets start getting later. 1 1 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Anyone wanna join me in the art room for some after384hours extrapolations? I’ll bring refreshments! I'll put my extrapolating hat on! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z GEFS looks pretty nice... Seems like an improvement. Go figure. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The weeklies look solid today with the mean showing EPO going to zero or below quite consistently beginning in a couple of weeks with constant -PNA. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: A little delayed compared to 12z, but not denied... There's quite a bit of chilly stuff before that too. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, snow drift said: Our sunset is at 4pm today. The earliest sunset is on December 13th at 3:57pm. Sunsets start getting later on December 14th. Our earliest sunset is December 4. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wow! I hadn't looked at that yet. 2007-08 patterns certainly wouldn't do that. I think the 2007 analog is trash simply because the most outstanding thing about this fall has been the AR's and extreme wetness and 2007 didn't have that. From an observed weather standpoint it's a terrible match...November was one of the drier ones on record. We have checked all of the boxes of what you usually see in a La Nina autumn that leads to a big winter. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, Phil said: Only 10 days until sunsets start getting later. On December 14th our sunset moves forward to 3:58pm from 3:57pm on the 13th. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Our earliest sunset is December 4. Our latest sunset actually starts on the 8th and continues through the 13th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’. We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’. We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be. I had sloppy snowflakes that never accumulated at 500’ in 07/08. Hoping my new location at not quite 600’ will help if it’s a redux! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Looking at the individual ensemble members on the weeklies things look really promising. A very good number of members show it getting solidly cold at some point between now and Jan 14, and the mean snowfall is up to 11 inches now. Usually over 10 is where the chances get good we will actually see snow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, snow drift said: On December 14th our sunset moves forward to 3:58pm from 3:57pm on the 13th. Days still get shorter for a while though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’. We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be. that's some seriously extreme golfing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: I had sloppy snowflakes that never accumulated at 500’ in 07/08. Hoping my new location at not quite 600’ will help if it’s a redux! I had some snow here, but it was wet. I think I ended up with 6 inches out of about 20 days it snowed. If the positive anomaly center off the coast had been a tad further north it could have been much better. Being real I think 2007 is one of several analogs that should be used this winter. Phil is way too hung up on it IMO. He's probably just trying to get a rise out of me. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Wow! I hadn't looked at that yet. 2007-08 patterns certainly wouldn't do that. I think the 2007 analog is trash simply because the most outstanding thing about this fall has been the AR's and extreme wetness and 2007 didn't have that. From an observed weather standpoint it's a terrible match...November was one of the drier ones on record. We have checked all of the boxes of what you usually see in a La Nina autumn that leads to a big winter. A snow map from the GFS at 342 hours does not count as actually happening though. The GFS can show whatever it wants... but that does not mean nature is following along. And in fact nature usually doesn't do what the GFS shows. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 38 degrees in DC for the Seahawks game... its actually considerably colder there than if the game was being played in Seattle where its in the mid 50s. What gives Phil? 2 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 38 degrees in DC for the Seahawks game... its actually considerably colder there than if the game was being played in Seattle where its in the mid 50s. What gives Phil? No summer humidity. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: A snow map from the GFS at 342 hours does not count as actually happening though. The GFS can show whatever it wants... but that does not mean nature is following along. And in fact nature usually doesn't do what the GFS shows. I knew somebody would bring this up. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I knew somebody would bring this up. Also the problem with analogs based on what the models show in 10 days. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 hours ago, joelgombiner said: Well November is almost over. Looks like Sea-Tac will come in about 4 inches wetter than normal, and about 1 degree F warmer than normal. We had our first frost of the year on November 17, about 2 weeks before normal. We set two daily record highs on the 15th and 28th, and set no new record lows. It was a fun and stormy month. Not bad for a changed climate! I'm still optimistic that we'll see at least one snow storm this winter. Nov 17 is actually earlier than your normal first frost? I had mine in early October this year. That early October cold snap was actually pretty impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said: Weeklies temp anomaly map really likes that mid month shot. Now that graphic says it all! Look at the way the AK cold gets dislodged. High chance of a major blast with that. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: I know it's just the GFS and things will probably change a million times between now and the time period in question but when we see crazy snowfall map after crazy snowfall map, that generally leads me to believe that while we may not score 10+ inches, we should see something over the next couple weeks. Even if it's just snow in the air. I still think anything that happens prior to 12/15 is just a bonus and the real flavorful stuff will hold off until after that point. But who knows! Definitely agree with this! Holiday love is going to happen and cause havoc for the retailers Christmas week. I’m on board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted November 30, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nice to see a sunset again 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Jginmartini said: Definitely agree with this! Holiday love is going to happen and cause havoc for the retailers Christmas week. I’m on board 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Jginmartini said: Nice to see a sunset again Wow, very nice! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, T-Town said: Wow, very nice! The sun sets so far to the south now….right on top of you from my location 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 SSW coming in mid december? cold Jan? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: SSW coming in mid december? cold Jan? We really do need a historic cold and snow January….been way to long 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Nice to see a sunset again Just gray skies up here, but there were one or two holes to the south and from the glimpses I got it looked very nice. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: The sun sets so far to the south now….right on top of you from my location It’s amazing to me how far it shifts between summer and winter. From here it sets over the Olympics in the summer and the Black Hills right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Hit 61 here in The Swamp today. That is only 9 degrees from 70 and 19 degrees from 80. Yikes! December 10th is the day we get a warning shot. I talked to Old Man Winter and he says he is saving himself for mid-January. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Nov 17 is actually earlier than your normal first frost? I had mine in early October this year. That early October cold snap was actually pretty impressive. Good point. I was thinking of a resource that gives the first frost date for Seattle as December 1, but another source gives the first frost date for Sea-Tac as November 13. Sea-Tac actually had a light freeze on the 17th, dipping to 31. We briefly touched 32 in north Seattle that night. I think Sea-Tac can have a cold bias relative to Seattle on clear, winter nights. Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Swamp said: Hit 61 here in The Swamp today. That is only 9 degrees from 70 and 11 degrees from 80. Yikes! December 10th is the day we get a warning shot. I talked to Old Man Winter and he says he is saving himself for mid-January. Kind of blows my mind away looking at it from your perspective but your right! 58* here….I did peel down to a shirt on my afternoon sunset walk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Kind of blows my mind away looking at it from your perspective but your right! 58* here….I did peel down to a shirt on my afternoon sunset walk This is one of the longest wet mild streaks I can remember. Makes me wonder what the flip side of the coin may look like. I'm not ever entirely sure we will see the flip side of the coin. This pattern is pretty locked in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Now that graphic says it all! Look at the way the AK cold gets dislodged. High chance of a major blast with that. The gfs ext is still running but so far very close to timing and scope. Will post after I get my shitlins down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I hadn't checked the IR satellite today because it was such a nice day. This is going to come as a big surprise... but there is another firehose pointed at SW BC and western WA! Perpetual AR situaiton. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Now that graphic says it all! Look at the way the AK cold gets dislodged. High chance of a major blast with that. Here is the Gefs ext 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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