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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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24 minutes ago, snow drift said:

07 was great for snow. I don't feel too good about this one.

2007/08 was trash here. Only 7” of snow all winter. Plus some ice. Would much rather repeat 2008/09 but that’s unlikely to be a good pattern match.

March 2008 was violent af, though. Had two wind events with hurricane force gusts in the span of 10 days.

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GEFS looks pretty nice...

1639180800-IeujiMiS9IM.png

Seems like an improvement. Go figure. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The weeklies look solid today with the mean showing EPO going to zero or below quite consistently beginning in a couple of weeks with constant -PNA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

A little delayed compared to 12z, but not denied...

1639332000-SxAG19fNsFw.png

There's quite a bit of chilly stuff before that too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

17BB98F3-0D6C-4D03-B60B-D6C159DCC221.jpeg

Wow!  I hadn't looked at that yet.  2007-08 patterns certainly wouldn't do that.  I think the 2007 analog is trash simply because the most outstanding thing about this fall has been the AR's and extreme wetness and 2007 didn't have that.  From an observed weather standpoint it's a terrible match...November was one of the drier ones on record.  

We have checked all of the boxes of what you usually see in a La Nina autumn that leads to a big winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’.

We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’.

We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be.

I had sloppy snowflakes that never accumulated at 500’ in 07/08. Hoping my new location at not quite 600’ will help if it’s a redux! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looking at the individual ensemble members on the weeklies things look really promising.  A very good number of members show it getting solidly cold at some point between now and Jan 14, and the mean snowfall is up to 11 inches now.  Usually over 10 is where the chances get good we will actually see snow.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, snow drift said:

On December 14th our sunset moves forward to 3:58pm from 3:57pm on the 13th.

Days still get shorter for a while though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember we trekked up the hill to Larch a couple times around New Years 2008 and played in about a two foot snowpack at about 1200’.

We could seriously do a lot worse than 2007-08. It’s not nearly the boogeyman it’s been made out to be.

that's some seriously extreme golfing!

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I had sloppy snowflakes that never accumulated at 500’ in 07/08. Hoping my new location at not quite 600’ will help if it’s a redux! 

I had some snow here, but it was wet.  I think I ended up with 6 inches out of about 20 days it snowed.  If the positive anomaly center off the coast had been a tad further north it could have been much better.

Being real I think 2007 is one of several analogs that should be used this winter.  Phil is way too hung up on it IMO.  He's probably just trying to get a rise out of me.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I hadn't looked at that yet.  2007-08 patterns certainly wouldn't do that.  I think the 2007 analog is trash simply because the most outstanding thing about this fall has been the AR's and extreme wetness and 2007 didn't have that.  From an observed weather standpoint it's a terrible match...November was one of the drier ones on record.  

We have checked all of the boxes of what you usually see in a La Nina autumn that leads to a big winter.

A snow map from the GFS at 342 hours does not count as actually happening though.      The GFS can show whatever it wants... but that does not mean nature is following along.   And in fact nature usually doesn't do what the GFS shows.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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38 degrees in DC for the Seahawks game... its actually considerably colder there than if the game was being played in Seattle where its in the mid 50s.    What gives Phil?    ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A snow map from the GFS at 342 hours does not count as actually happening though.      The GFS can show whatever it wants... but that does not mean nature is following along.   And in fact nature usually doesn't do what the GFS shows.   😀

I knew somebody would bring this up. 😮

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Well November is almost over. Looks like Sea-Tac will come in about 4 inches wetter than normal, and about 1 degree F warmer than normal. 

We had our first frost of the year on November 17, about 2 weeks before normal. 

We set two daily record highs on the 15th and 28th, and set no new record lows. 

It was a fun and stormy month. Not bad for a changed climate! I'm still optimistic that we'll see at least one snow storm this winter. 

 

Nov 17 is actually earlier than your normal first frost?  I had mine in early October this year.  That early October cold snap was actually pretty impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Weeklies temp anomaly map really likes that mid month shot. 

1069624765_Euroweeklies11-29-212MTanomolies.gif

Now that graphic says it all!  Look at the way the AK cold gets dislodged.  High chance of a major blast with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I know it's just the GFS and things will probably change a million times between now and the time period in question but when we see crazy snowfall map after crazy snowfall map, that generally leads me to believe that while we may not score 10+ inches, we should see something over the next couple weeks. Even if it's just snow in the air.

I still think anything that happens prior to 12/15 is just a bonus and the real flavorful stuff will hold off until after that point. But who knows!

Definitely agree with this! 
Holiday love is going to happen and cause havoc for the retailers Christmas week.  I’m on board 

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24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Nice to see a sunset again 

038C6D68-A94E-4A2A-90AC-6864F5178773.jpeg

97AADFE4-13DA-42DD-A0EF-CA6B2CB2358E.jpeg

AD4F9463-1439-44FE-B002-D94E9E2E2806.jpeg

Just gray skies up here, but there were one or two holes to the south and from the glimpses I got it looked very nice.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nov 17 is actually earlier than your normal first frost?  I had mine in early October this year.  That early October cold snap was actually pretty impressive.

Good point. I was thinking of a resource that gives the first frost date for Seattle as December 1, but another source gives the first frost date for Sea-Tac as November 13.

Sea-Tac actually had a light freeze on the 17th, dipping to 31. We briefly touched 32 in north Seattle that night. I think Sea-Tac can have a cold bias relative to Seattle on clear, winter nights. 

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2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Hit 61 here in The Swamp today.  That is only 9 degrees from 70 and 11 degrees from 80.  Yikes!

December 10th is the day we get a warning shot.  I talked to Old Man Winter and he says he is saving himself for mid-January.

Kind of blows my mind away looking at it from your perspective but your right! 58* here….I did peel down to a shirt on my afternoon sunset walk 

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12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Kind of blows my mind away looking at it from your perspective but your right! 58* here….I did peel down to a shirt on my afternoon sunset walk 

This is one of the longest wet mild streaks I can remember.

Makes me wonder what the flip side of the coin may look like.  I'm not ever entirely sure we will see the flip side of the coin.  This pattern is pretty locked in.

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I hadn't checked the IR satellite today because it was such a nice day.     This is going to come as a big surprise... but there is another firehose pointed at SW BC and western WA!      Perpetual AR situaiton.

 

sat 11-29.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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