TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: This feels sooo much like 2008 it's not even funny! 00z ECMWF in 56 minutes Could be. Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things. 2 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nice run. Jim’s going to go bonkers. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 CVO is in a fog pocket of some kind. OSU campus has clear skies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Could be. Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things. I'd take 08-09 again on a platter served twice please. snowiest winter in Spokane history. 97.7" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nice 00z run. Took the snow away of course for Sunday, but nicer in the long range. RIP Hawks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need the ECMWF on board... 12Z was not there. Maybe the 00Z run will pick it up. To be fair, Euro hasn't exactly been consistent lately. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Could be. Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things. Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years. 2 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years. Those are just running jokes. He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes based mostly on gut instinct. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The LR GFS never fails to do something special. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Those are just running jokes. He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes. Me or Matt? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: The LR GFS never fails to do something special. Yeah... its just wildly extreme in the long range on most runs since the upgrade. Makes for good conversation but not much else. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Those are just running jokes. He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes based mostly on gut instinct. He didn't call for a frozen turkey this year. Good non-call! Guess he forgot about the running joke 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Me or Matt? Actually both of you in general. But you did not do so well this past summer. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 00z GEFS That Day 7-8 trough is trending a bit colder. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Actually both of you in general. But you did not do so well this past summer. If I were perfect I wouldn’t be human. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The 06Z GFS last night showed 105 inches of snow in Hood River over the next 2 weeks... the new 00Z run is down to just 24 inches there over the same time period. Something tells me the 06Z run will be back up over 100 inches. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Could be. Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things. I'm new but have been calling this since my first post on the 18th. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: I'm new but have been calling this since my first post on the 18th. Duly noted! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: He didn't call for a frozen turkey this year. Good non-call! Guess he forgot about the running joke Phorecasting should be phun! But yeah, it IS coming… 5 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nice run tonight! It basically turns much cooler on Thursday and then just gets colder from there. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The canadian sure sucked. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years. No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens. He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months. There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it. When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen. Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human 1 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens. He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months. There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it. When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot. Lol I think he talked about it in like January 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Not horrible but not crazy. Not yet. Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run. FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time. Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need the ECMWF on board... 12Z was not there. Maybe the 00Z run will pick it up. The other map is just another consequence of the GFS operational run being a cold outlier. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 48 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Temps never get below freezing in Whatcom County during this event, except the mountains of course. Looks like 1000ft snow level kind of deal and the GFS not very good at showing that in the mid and long range 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human Our electric company is called SUB. Always makes me chuckle. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The canadian sure sucked. Not that bad, and way better than last night's run. Anyway....it's not as chilly with the first shot later this week so it won't take long to see which model is closer to right. The GFS has been pretty darn consistent overall. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run. FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time. Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive. You can count on the GFS being too warm with ridgy periods in the warm season and too cold with troughy periods in the cold season. The ECMWF and EPS seem to be far superior for temp guidance beyond 2 or 3 days. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nice AR on day 9 One of these times an AR is going to mix with some cold air if this keeps up. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Foggy and 52 degrees here. Nice September morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: SSW coming in mid december? cold Jan? Wouldn't that be something. Some moderate cold and snow in December and then just crushed in January. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 This run has quite a remarkable N to S gradient with the cool period late this week and this weekend. At one point 850s slope from -5 over SEA to +5 around Eugene. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 48 and clear. So unbelievably mild. About a week from a real pattern change towards winter up here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The CFS is on a huge roll with January. The average of the last 12 runs is about the best I've seen yet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 48 and clear. So unbelievably mild. About a week from a real pattern change towards winter up here. This warmth was kind of like the final piece of the puzzle for me. It just screams cold weather coming when combined with everything else. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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