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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
This feels sooo much like 2008 it's not even funny!
00z ECMWF in 56 minutes

Could be.   Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice run. Jim’s going to go bonkers.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could be.   Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things.  

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

Those are just running jokes.    He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes based mostly on gut instinct.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Those are just running jokes.    He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes.

Me or Matt?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The LR GFS never fails to do something special.

Yeah... its just wildly extreme in the long range on most runs since the upgrade.   Makes for good conversation but not much else.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Actually both of you in general.

But you did not do so well this past summer.   ;)

If I were perfect I wouldn’t be human. 😶

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The 06Z GFS last night showed 105 inches of snow in Hood River over the next 2 weeks... the new 00Z run is down to just 24 inches there over the same time period.     Something tells me the 06Z run will be back up over 100 inches.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice run tonight!  It basically turns much cooler on Thursday and then just gets colder from there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens.  He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months.  There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it.  When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen.

Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human 😉

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens.  He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months.  There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it.  When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot.

Lol I think he talked about it in like January 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not horrible but not crazy. Not yet.

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8230400.png

Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run.  FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time.  Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human 😉

Our electric company is called SUB. Always makes me chuckle.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The canadian sure sucked.

Not that bad, and way better than last night's run.  Anyway....it's not as chilly with the first shot later this week so it won't take long to see which model is closer to right.  The GFS has been pretty darn consistent overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run.  FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time.  Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive.

You can count on the GFS being too warm with ridgy periods in the warm season and too cold with troughy periods in the cold season.     The ECMWF and EPS seem to be far superior for temp guidance beyond 2 or 3 days.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice AR on day 9

One of these times an AR is going to mix with some cold air if this keeps up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

SSW coming in mid december?  cold Jan?

Wouldn't that be something.  Some moderate cold and snow in December and then just crushed in January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This run has quite a remarkable N to S gradient with the cool period late this week and this weekend.  At one point 850s slope from -5 over SEA to +5 around Eugene.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 and clear. So unbelievably mild. About a week from a real pattern change towards winter up here.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The CFS is on a huge roll with January.  The average of the last 12 runs is about the best I've seen yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

48 and clear. So unbelievably mild. About a week from a real pattern change towards winter up here.

This warmth was kind of like the final piece of the puzzle for me.  It just screams cold weather coming when combined with everything else.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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