Jump to content

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That was a pretty ideal setup actually, at least from Salem-north. Strong low landfalling around Reedsport with a very cold airmass (850s ended up getting to -10c at SLE) advecting in from the NE. Almost a picture perfect setup. 

Had a little too much downslope component to the north of the low, otherwise it would have been amazing, but still wound up with a respectable 3" of 28-30F powder here going into a cold spell. 1/10/2017 totally overshadowed it here but that was still a great event.

Thanks for the analysis on that, for some reason I remember it being forecasted kind of late in the game, and being more marginal than it sounds like it was... That and the 1/7/17 event were really good in the Salem area. They haven't really done well since. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS continues to want to drop another cold trough on us next weekend.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_50.png

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks for the analysis on that, for some reason I remember it being forecasted kind of late in the game, and being more marginal than it sounds like it was... That and the 1/7/17 event were really good in the Salem area. They haven't really done well since. 

Yeah, they're probably the folks most due on the westside for a significant (4"+) event. Corvallis-Albany, too. They're still making up for 2013-14 when they got about 25". 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yet another epic trough to close the run... Basically 5 troughs, each progressively colder and further south...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_62.png

  • Like 7

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49F and mostly sunny. Did I miss anything?

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That's 3 runs in a row with that real cold air coming down into interior BC.  If the pattern the GFS is pushing verified and continued troughing could make for some bitter cold entering the PNW.

1639656000-qqThhrss1no.png

Not really enough amplification for a true arctic outbreak IMO, but insane amounts of cold air on this side of the pole just waiting to be dislodged. 

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm no expert but isn't this amplified?  It basically a straight shot from Santa 

1639656000-9ZUznMTLO1s.png

Not really. There is actually a low in the Bering Sea. Ideally we would like 564 heights into Anchorage for a real BLAST.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really. There is actually a low in the Bering Sea. Ideally we would like 564 heights into Anchorage for a real BLAST.

Thanks for the response.  Still learning how to read a lot of these maps. Just need that low to ride down that trough and pull down some more cold air down through the fraser with proper placement of course. :)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really. There is actually a low in the Bering Sea. Ideally we would like 564 heights into Anchorage for a real BLAST.

At the very least we will have a snowpack accumulating in the mountains *** and foothills *** which is severely lacking at the moment.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Thanks for the response.  Still learning how to read a lot of these maps. Just need that low to ride down that trough and pull down some more cold air down through the fraser with proper placement of course. :)

Something more like this. 

A6E9B353-4ABE-4FBB-97BC-C9531617D89F.jpeg

  • Like 6
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need 0.20” to make it the wettest fall ever at this location…not sure if we’re going to get there it’ll be close. Very wet fall overall though I’d still consider it the wettest ever in western WA despite it falling just a bit short here. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, kokaneekidz said:

At the very least we will have a snowpack accumulating in the mountains *** and foothills *** which is severely lacking at the moment.

Yeah the pattern being shown on these runs is golden for here... Really couldn't ask for anything better. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Thanks for the response.  Still learning how to read a lot of these maps. Just need that low to ride down that trough and pull down some more cold air down through the fraser with proper placement of course. :)

Plus that map was hour 384, it doesn't count.  Nothing more than 72 hours out should be considered.

  • Like 1
  • Troll 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Plus that map was hour 384, it doesn't count.  Nothing more than 72 hours out should be considered.

Yeah I’m definitely not on board yet either. I’ve been watching the models long enough to know we’ve got a long way to go to be excited (January 2005,2011 and 2020 come to mind)…but there’s promising signals better than seeing split flow or ridgy model runs all the way through hr 384.

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m definitely not on board yet either. I’ve been watching the models long enough to know we’ve got a long way to go to be excited (January 2005,2011 and 2020 come to mind)…but there’s promising signals better than seeing split flow or ridgy model runs all the way through hr 384.

Yeah its been 36 days since I last saw a snowflake here. Will most likely get close to 50 days which is ridiculous. Hopefully these hints of a change actually happen. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well at least the predicted weather of mid/up 50's around here hasn't come true for this past 2 days. Yesterday was supposed to be over 55 degrees and sunny and we made it to 49F and it was fog/cloudy and mist. Today looks like it's going to be the same as yesterday. Currently 44F foggy/cloudy with mist.

image.png.7a89b0c7ef487c54492aed8b7187a141.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 177

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 177

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    3. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...