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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 hour ago, snow drift said:

It was super cold into the center of the country. January was a massive inversion up here in Spokane. We kept snowcover for 2-3 months. 2016-17 was kind of similar. I feel like it's a mistake to use analogs like 1984-85, because the climate is warmer now. 

Nice to see another person on here from Spokane. Moved here about a year and half ago from Bonney Lake WA. The long time local told me last winter was very mild and mellow here compared to usual. It appears this year is starting off similarly? Thanks, as I am still learning the weather here, as I had my old location down, but starting over here. Praying for a white Christmas!

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52 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I have no idea how to read a 10mb map but isn't this showing a sudden warming over Canada?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-1638273600-1638273600-1639656000-10.gif

That’s a Canadian warming. 10mb PV itself is actually much stronger than average, but displaced onto the Eurasian side of the pole.

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11 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That is one positive AO.  Good news though is NAO goes positive when PNA and EPO look to go negative

Would help to have some blocking in the arctic at least (Eurasian side) such that more of the TPV bleeds into North America.

If it’s just a monster +AO that hurts the prospects of arctic cold, all else being equal.

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS control run looked nice as well.

I feel like more models are starting to look nice for mid month than not. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9116000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9418400.png

They either are or they aren’t. Nothing to “feel”. ;) 

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13 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Nice to see another person on here from Spokane. Moved here about a year and half ago from Bonney Lake WA. The long time local told me last winter was very mild and mellow here compared to usual. It appears this year is starting off similarly? Thanks, as I am still learning the weather here, as I had my old location down, but starting over here. Praying for a white Christmas!

I'm out in LL, but I'm incognito and you can't seeee meeee. I've been here since May 2018.  winters have been pretty meh compared to the climate record from what I can gather.  18-19 wasn't terrible but I came from Socal via the southeast US so

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm out in LL, but I'm incognito and you can't seeee meeee. I've been here since May 2018.  winters have been pretty meh compared to the climate record from what I can gather.  18-19 wasn't terrible but I came from Socal via the southeast US so

Great to meet you, and thanks for the info. I was not asking to meet you, I have been on this forum since 2014 and have not met anyone here nor asked. ;) I am up in North Spokane currently but own property up in Chewelah and hope to build up there in the next year or two. Unless the world goes to hell in a hand basket under our current leaders. We shall see! :) Again nice to meet you and look forward to reading your posts on here. 

 

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18 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Nice to see another person on here from Spokane. Moved here about a year and half ago from Bonney Lake WA. The long time local told me last winter was very mild and mellow here compared to usual. It appears this year is starting off similarly? Thanks, as I am still learning the weather here, as I had my old location down, but starting over here. Praying for a white Christmas!

Things are starting out extremely mild this year. Tomorrow should be close to 60. Highs should be in the 30s. You would have really enjoyed 2016-17. It was a good old fashioned winter. It put me in mind of 1984-85. Feb-Mar 2019 was another really good wintry period. Maybe this year starts out slow. Who knows, right?

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13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm out in LL, but I'm incognito and you can't seeee meeee. I've been here since May 2018.  winters have been pretty meh compared to the climate record from what I can gather.  18-19 wasn't terrible but I came from Socal via the southeast US so

February to March 2019 was really good. Otherwise mild has been the overall theme.

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Interesting ICON. To bad there is no cold air to work with in that first system. Takes a good track for W. Washington. Looks like that 2nd one is primed to come in further south too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS kind of sucks for the next couple of weeks, but then delivers for Christmas.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Whoa that's cool. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting ICON. To bad there is no cold air to work with in that first system. Takes a good track for W. Washington. Looks like that 2nd one is primed to come in further south too. 

Solid track for sure, just no cold air like you say. This would be close though IMO.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.thumb.png.5b59f64be4d01ca74cadcdda2081fce1.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Solid track for sure, just no cold air like you say. This would be close though IMO.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.thumb.png.5b59f64be4d01ca74cadcdda2081fce1.png

This shows it a bit weaker than the GFS. We really need some heavier precipitation rates

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18z coming colder with the Saturday system. Nice. 

Weak low coming on onshore around Lincoln City. Maybe even a little snow on Mt. Hood. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I don't see any snow eating southerly gradients, it could happen with good dew points and precipitation rates.

Yeah, that low is coming in way south of the Puget Sound. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A fairly chilly upper level airmass by Saturday evening on this run...

gfs_T850_nwus_19.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The Monday system is coming in further south. Going to be a snowy run. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12/14/16 redux?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_23.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snku_024h.us_nw.png

Kuchera rates because let's be real.

10:1 just for fun...

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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