PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Please tell me you have analogs besides 2007.  That is really short sighted if you don't.  As I've mentioned that November was totally different here observed weather wise.

I have three analog pools I’m looking at, actually.

The pool containing 1974, 1999, 2005, and 2007 has performed the best thus far.

Still time to shake things up.  But it ain’t gonna happen until the winter solstice, at earliest. First half of December is already shot.

[van city]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty hard to be very upset about the big picture at this point.

I think Andrew is.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Maybe, just maybe this could be one of those times the ensembles are significantly better than the op? It's not common, but does happen at times. Nah. I shot that down fast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, van city said:

I think Andrew is.

No. I'm not. I've said many times, it's coming... Just impatient and tired of the ridiculous torching. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have three analog pools I’m looking at, actually.

The pool containing 1974, 1999, 2005, and 2007 has performed the best thus far.

Still time to shake things up.  But it ain’t gonna happen until the winter solstice, at earliest. First half of December is already shot.

Pretty bold call when looking at the EPS and other models.  Certainly going to be far better than the crap we've had so far at the very least.  It figures you have 1999 in there too.  Solar max and a Nina that was a complete oddball.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er imagine if the block was amplified. Nice cold trough though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I don't know... Surface temps in the mid to upper 30s, 925s in -1/-2c range, and 850s around -3/-4c doesn't scream almost 4 inches of snow to me (or even all that cold) even with ESE winds. Not much of a cold pool east of the Cascades to work with either. 

This first round just got forked, at least per the 00z GFS, which is fine because I wasn't expecting jack crap out of this anyways. It could still switch but the real $$$ is later on.

I'm not that worried about this early stuff.  You've got to look at this as a comparison to what we have seen so far.  No matter how you slice this is going to be much cooler and more interesting.  The first half of December averaging below normal is a win and the chances are very good it will.

[GHweatherChris]

So we are allowed to group a bunch of years together as one big analog now?  GTFO.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er imagine if the block was amplified. Nice cold trough though.

We're going to get there.  We all know the drill with hiccups early in the game.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Enjoy the barney on the control 

ohh, some backdoor play down Purcell Trench for NYE

 

PARTY TIME!

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have three analog pools I’m looking at, actually.

The pool containing 1974, 1999, 2005, and 2007 has performed the best thus far.

Still time to shake things up.  But it ain’t gonna happen until the winter solstice, at earliest. First half of December is already shot.

And all kidding aside, it pains me to be this pessimistic. I’d love to see you guys score a top notch blast. Or anyone in the lower-48, for that matter. Doesn’t have to be imby for me to enjoy it.

Anything but flat and lazy.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

So we are allowed to group a bunch of years together as one big analog now?  GTFO.

That's how analogs are used.  There are always multiple analogs.

[Requiem]

At this point sorta reminding me of 1990/1991/1992/1993/1994/1995/1996/1997/1998/1999/2000/2001/2002/2003/2004/2005/2006/2007/2008/2009/2010/2011/2012/2013/2014/2015. Analog, perhaps?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Cancel winter,

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

And all kidding aside, it pains me to be this pessimistic. I’d love to see you guys score a top notch blast. Or anyone in the lower-48, for that matter. Doesn’t have to be imby for me to enjoy it.

Anything but flat and lazy.

I just don't know what you're looking at.  These model runs all show positive anoms over the Pacific better located than 2007-08.  1999 just makes no sense at all as an analog IMO.  I agree that 2007 should be one analog in the group, but this will almost certainly be more amplified.  You have obviously ignored the EPS showing the cold getting dislodge from AK a bit down the road.  As I've said though, I'm weighting observed weather analogs highly this year, because of the sequence of events we have seen.

[SalemDuck]

At least Phil’s Scandinavian ridge is still there 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You were right! Still more to run

if that played out it would be HIGHS in Spokane at or below 0.  I'm not sure when the last time that happened here.  I'm sure someone on here does.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

At this point sorta reminding me of 1990/1991/1992/1993/1994/1995/1996/1997/1998/1999/2000/2001/2002/2003/2004/2005/2006/2007/2008/2009/2010/2011/2012/2013/2014/2015. Analog, perhaps?

Ridiculous post.  Some of those years were totally different weather and background states from this year.  It pisses me off when people make fun of long range forecasting.  Some of us put work into it.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

So we are allowed to group a bunch of years together as one big analog now?  GTFO.

You generally need an ensemble of analogs for seasonal scale predictability. Relying one or two years is fooking pointless.

[Deweydog]

Is it completely ignored that the last ten days of 1999 were very blocky?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Cancel winter,

Why?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You generally need an ensemble of analogs for seasonal scale predictability. Relying one or two years is fooking pointless.

I think we can both agree that some of us take this stuff seriously.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

At least Phil’s Scandinavian ridge is still there 

Needs to amplify now. But yes.

That NW-Pacific ridge is decimating +WAFz through the NPAC, though, and would force a ++AO if left to its own accord.

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is it completely ignored that the last ten days of 1999 were very blocky?

It depends on the other 27 years you add to the pool.

[Gradient Keeper]

Tons of potential ahead and I'll say it, as good as December 2008, but will that potential be realized. Yes, of course. Did you think I was going to say, "Nah, not really?" no chance. What fun would that be? NOPE! C'MON!!!! Ya gotta believe!

00z ECMWF 57 minutes

[MossMan]

.58” on the day so far, 15.58” on the month. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

At least Phil’s Scandinavian ridge is still there 

 

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.58” on the day so far, 15.58” on the month. 

I honestly thought you were gonna end up with more rain this month than me at one point, nope, up 20.34" here now.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is it completely ignored that the last ten days of 1999 were very blocky?

Does it matter?

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Does it matter?

Blocking? Yes.  It’s a thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Meanwhile the Canadian might be improving?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18.11 rain for the month. STUPID. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Blocking? Yes.  It’s a thing.

And if it doesn't go right it can really sting.

[Anti Marine Layer]

What's the most pages for one month?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And if it doesn't go right it can really sting.

But inversions and the cold anomalies they bring?

[Deweydog]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's the most pages for one month?

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,069

[Anti Marine Layer]

38 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

2021/22

That is the year that will best match up with this winter

[Outpost54]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I disagree.

The GFS D5 z500 skill scores are on par with where the ECMWF was in 2008. 

 

Interesting chart, but this might be comparing apples to oranges somewhat. I would agree that the Euro is still more accurate in the 5-day range. I'm referring more to its ability to detect significant pattern changes in the long range.

Anecdotally, it seems to me that ever since the upgrade, the GFS has picked up on the gist of major events significantly earlier than the Euro, but then it still struggles with the details. The Euro on the other hand has seemed slower to detect major pattern changes, but then once it finally does catch on to what the GFS had already been showing for a few days, it nails down the details much better. Like with the heat wave for example, I remember the GFS was showing 120+ at PDX for several days before the Euro got on board with even breaking 100. But then once the Euro finally recognized that a major event was coming, it remained pretty firm that PDX would only top out around 115, which was what actually happened. Meanwhile the GFS kept spitting out 120+ degree insanity pretty much all the way up until the event actually happened.

Just my purely anecdotal perception though, I admit I could be totally off base here if the data says otherwise. I'd be curious to see a chart like this for the 10 day mark, if it exists. I bet the new GFS beats the Euro there.