SouthHillFrosty Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Snow on day 10: Looks like snowstorm is coming onboard right at end of the model run at day 10! You can see the snow line stop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Snow on day 10: Wait what? So snow up and down the coast and in the mountains but I-5 corridor is pretty much nothing. Yikes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Three of the main analogs in recent days have been 1971, 1990, and 2008. Talk about a nice trio! 1971-72 was a really solid winter with moderate cold and some lowland snow in December and then a major event in January. One of the snowiest winters on record for SEA. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Wait what? So snow up and down the coast and in the mountains but I-5 corridor is pretty much nothing. Yikes. Shadowing. The ECMWF is telling us patience may be required over the next week or so. Maybe the GFS has just been rushing things too much. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Wait what? So snow up and down the coast and in the mountains but I-5 corridor is pretty much nothing. Yikes. It looks like it just starts at the end of the run. If it continued, high probability the snow would come onshore. Obviously need to see the placement of it though 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Mild last day of fall mostly cloudy 58/48. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Shadowing. The ECMWF is telling us patience may be required over the next week or so. Maybe the GFS has just been rushing things too much. Yup. I can definitely see that. I just find it really odd to see a map like this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: It looks like it just starts at the end of the run. If it continued, high probability the snow would come onshore. Obviously need to see the placement of it though I'm not worried about the placement 10 days in advance of a Low that will certainly move. Just excited for the prospects of whats to come. Nothing more magical than snow around the holidays. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: In most places around here and in most cases, yes, you need an artic high pressure. Otherwise the best you can get is cool onshore flow. It's PNW lowland snowstorms 101. Not true. One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area. Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours. A lot of places got a foot. Nothing more than maritime polar air with that. We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: I'm not worried about the placement 10 days in advance of a Low that will certainly move. Just excited for the prospects of whats to come. Nothing more magical than snow around the holidays. We have a really good shot this year. We are way due for a white New Years. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 I think the big story right now is how much the EPS and GEFS have improved over the past few runs. Then of course the weeklies that came out on Monday. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not true. One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area. Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours. A lot of places got a foot. Nothing more than maritime polar air with that. We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place. I recommend reading Cliff Mass's book, it is true. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not true. One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area. Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours. A lot of places got a foot. Nothing more than maritime polar air with that. We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place. To get a modestly chilly air mass in place, say mid thirties, you need an artic high pressure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: To get a modestly chilly air mass in place, say mid thirties, you need an artic high pressure. Not true 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not true. One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area. Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours. A lot of places got a foot. Nothing more than maritime polar air with that. We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place. One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to a heavy wet snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Nice change in the lowering of heights on the latest EPS. I wonder when Phil will start changing his tune… 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. Yes I said in most cases you need an artic high it place and northerly flow. I can also think of cases where it snowed without an artic high. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to a heavy wet snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. Totally forgot about that! I was in Bham at the time at WWU. The week before that I waited in line in front of the Best Buy to get the Wii(one and only time I ever camped out for a console) and I remember playing Zelda watching the snow dumping down. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Hahaha know dude, we're a bunch of knuckle heads when it comes to weather. We'd be all there but still looking at the forum lol. Yeah, this is pretty much what a forum meetup would look like (only older) 1 4 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Just to circle back to this real quick: They are. You know what else they are all showing, besides a trough in the PNW? East coast ridging. Goes together like peanut butter and chocolate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 600 seconds!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: I'm watching Yellowstone. Good show. The bad model runs need to be taken to the train station. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: I wonder when Phil will start changing his tune… Looks pretty similar to 2007... 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Looks pretty similar to 2007... Which is not a bad thing at all. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 600 seconds!!! #december2remember is gonna start off pretty torchy! 54 here right now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: #december2remember is gonna start off pretty torchy! 54 here right now. From frying pan to the ice box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Which is not a bad thing at all. Just a few tweaks and notches. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: From frying pan to the ice box Should end the month below 0! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Aleutian / GOA positive anomaly center on the EPS is very close to the sweet spot at the end of the run. Move it north a few degrees and east about 10 and you're there. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: #december2remember is gonna start off pretty torchy! 54 here right now. Decent chance the month ends cooler than it will start. HAVE YOU SEEN THE WEEKLIES??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Looks pretty similar to 2007... December also had 31 days in 2007. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Decent chance the month ends cooler than it will start. HAVE YOU SEEN THE WEEKLIES??? I live for Monday and Thursdays 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Decent chance the month ends cooler than it will start. HAVE YOU SEEN THE WEEKLIES??? Wow bold statement! It’s December by the way! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 We have a really decent shot at things getting quite good around mid month. Should be fun model riding. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 No one's done it yet so i went ahead and made it -> 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The thing about 2007 is the high pressure over the Pacific was much more suppressed than what's being shown on the models currently. Way more potential with this positioning. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 52 minutes ago, MossMan said: My dad has a 1966 with the tri power! He had that 455 big block that is in it BUILT! I swear he can almost lift the front tires off the ground in that beast! I had cousins who own an Oldsmobile dealership in the small town where a lot of my family lived south of Atlanta. So naturally most the family drove Oldsmobiles, though nothing hot like the 442s. My brother did get a used Olds from an aunt (I think it was a '70 or 71 2 door fastback with the 350) that he said ran like a raped ape. On the weather side I ended up with 1.44" today, which finishes off the month at 17.45" 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: No one's done it yet so i went ahead and made it -> Actually Fred started one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Goodbye November 2021 thread was a fun wet argumentative month with lots of disliked analogs and winter cancels! 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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