PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Sounds like we may wrap this thing up with a destructive windstorm. 
 

 

Yikes! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

up to 1.21" since midnight.  Temp popped up to the upper 50's briefly but it now back down to 51.

[Blizzard777]

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

up to 1.21" since midnight.  Temp popped up to the upper 50's briefly but it now back down to 51.

Looks lovely there! 
Blowing rain here currently 

62*

[Cloud]

Power went out in Bothell at my sister’s place. 

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not the usual yearly flooding for NW Washington.

O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0080.211115T0327Z-211117T2351Z/
/NKSW1.2.ER.211115T0327Z.211116T1800Z.211117T1900Z.NO/
128 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At Ferndale.

* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.5 feet, the Nooksack River will overflow levees
  and banks along the east bank of the river from Hovander Park
  downstream to Marietta, causing widespread flooding from near
  Ferndale downstream to the mouth...with swift waters in
  residential areas and over farm lands and roads. Erosion may
  damage some river banks.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 14.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 21.2 feet late Tuesday morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage late Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.1 feet on 01/05/1984.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast. This approaches the flood of
  record.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 36.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause severe near
  record flooding from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon
  to the mouth. Deep and swift flood waters will inundate and
  possibly damage many roads...farmlands and residential areas.
  Levees may be damaged.  Flood areas will also include headwaters...
  tributaries...and other streams in the Skagit basin. This level
  for this location corresponds to a Phase 1 flood in the Skagit
  County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 26.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 37.1 feet Tuesday afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    37.0 feet on 11/11/1906.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

1906?  Didn't know about that one.  Guess what...another great winter.  I suppose they could have meant 2006.  Both years had big rains in the general time frame of the 11th.

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some nostalgia for Phil... raining at his old stomping grounds.  

Was such an awful drive over the pass. Was so windy over blewett all I was doing was watching the trees bending over the road and then Snoqualmie was just as windy with pouring rain/spray and traffic. About as bad as it can get during a daytime trip without snow

[snow_wizard]

Yikes.  They upped the Skagit and Nooksack again.  Record floods on both, although still not record at Ferndale on this update.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Was such an awful drive over the pass. Was so windy over blewett all I was doing was watching the trees bending over the road and then Snoqualmie was just as windy with pouring rain/spray and traffic. About as bad as it can get during a daytime trip without snow

I don't like Blewett Pass no matter what the weather is.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1906?  Didn't know about that one.  Guess what...another great winter.  I suppose they could have meant 2006.  Both years had big rains in the general time frame of the 11th.

I don't know if those were record years or just years with a similar crest.  Either way major flooding

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Power went out in Bothell at my sister’s place. 

Power went out across the street from me…..wasn’t planning on this! 

[North_County]

2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Really coming down here as well.  You having to do sandbags for yourself or are you going to one of the community sandbag stations?

Mostly the community. The stream that floods town borders my backyard, but my house itself sits up pretty high. Fingers crossed. My back shed is in play, and possibly my garage. But the living space should be fine.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS has another cool /dry interlude around day 9.  Surface gradients go northerly again.  Looks like we are transitioning to a different regime.

[Randyc321]

The current radars  in No WAY representative of reality.  
I’m just sayin.  

[MossMan]

.07” on the day. 

[mtep]

Whatcom Falls is going pretty strong

 

 

[snow_wizard]

They are just getting pounded on the Northen Olympic Pen and the North Interior.  The radar shows a constant pummeling up there.  They now have the Elwha shattering the previous record crest.

[Tyler Mode]

65 and mostly cloudy.  Warmest day of the month, and even opened up the house.  Would have been a great day to put up outside decorations!

[snow_wizard]

They just raised the projections on the Skagit yet again.  Now going for 6 feet above major flood stage and a foot over the record.  They may not be able to get enough sandbags in place to protect Mount Vernon with that level.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

65 and mostly cloudy.  Warmest day of the month, and even opened up the house.  Would have been a great day to put up outside decorations!

It feels ridiculous out there.  Perfectly comfortable just in short sleeves and it only made 61 here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA came in with a 63/55 day.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA came in with a 63/55 day.

That qualifies as a torch.

[Blizzard777]

Hidden lenticular clouds and depleted snow

43* up there at Crystal 

[Blizzard777]

25 minutes ago, mtep said:

Whatcom Falls is going pretty strong

 

Nice screensaver pic too! 

[North_County]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They just raised the projections on the Skagit yet again.  Now going for 6 feet above major flood stage and a foot over the record.  They may not be able to get enough sandbags in place to protect Mount Vernon with that level.

This has the potential to be horrifically bad for some areas. And I'm trying to avoid hyperbole. My 15-year-old son and I just spent 3 hours in torrential rain filling probably hundreds of sand bags between the two of us. And I don't feel like I did nearly enough.

The flood we had in February 2020 turned me off from weather for a good while. I might need to take a break after this too.

[bainbridgekid]

Several 55 mph gusts today in Everett.

[LowerGarfield]

I see snowflakes....in Green Bay.

[Phil]

This looks fun.

 

[Phil]

 

[snow_wizard]

Rather impressively the 18z GFS show the entire last half of November being devoid of 50+ max temps for SEA.

[Deweydog]

Down to 65 at PDX.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, North_County said:

This has the potential to be horrifically bad for some areas. And I'm trying to avoid hyperbole. My 15-year-old son and I just spent 3 hours in torrential rain filling probably hundreds of sand bags between the two of us. And I don't feel like I did nearly enough.

The flood we had in February 2020 turned me off from weather for a good while. I might need to take a break after this too.

I wish the AR would have sagged down this way like it was supposed to.  That would have taken some of the pressure off you up there.  It's unusual for these things to remain in the same place for so long.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Down to 65 at PDX.

Brrrrrrr...............

[The Swamp]

I hit 65 here in the swamp.  What a nice day it turned out being.

[joelgombiner]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not the usual yearly flooding for NW Washington.

O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0080.211115T0327Z-211117T2351Z/
/NKSW1.2.ER.211115T0327Z.211116T1800Z.211117T1900Z.NO/
128 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At Ferndale.

* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.5 feet, the Nooksack River will overflow levees
  and banks along the east bank of the river from Hovander Park
  downstream to Marietta, causing widespread flooding from near
  Ferndale downstream to the mouth...with swift waters in
  residential areas and over farm lands and roads. Erosion may
  damage some river banks.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 14.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 21.2 feet late Tuesday morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage late Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.1 feet on 01/05/1984.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast. This approaches the flood of
  record.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 36.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause severe near
  record flooding from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon
  to the mouth. Deep and swift flood waters will inundate and
  possibly damage many roads...farmlands and residential areas.
  Levees may be damaged.  Flood areas will also include headwaters...
  tributaries...and other streams in the Skagit basin. This level
  for this location corresponds to a Phase 1 flood in the Skagit
  County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 26.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 37.1 feet Tuesday afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    37.0 feet on 11/11/1906.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Now projected to reach a record flood stage of at least 38 feet. 

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Hidden lenticular clouds and depleted snow

43* up there at Crystal 

Looks like they had quite a bit before the melt off.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Now projected to reach a record flood stage of at least 38 feet. 

They just keep raising it.  I remember they had a major flood years ago and they were barely to get enough sand bags in place for that one.  This one will be a lot worse.  One thing the models showed from the start on this is the Skagit would be bad.  Unfortnatley the last minute changes have made it worse.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They just keep raising it.  I remember they had a major flood years ago and they were barely to get enough sand bags in place for that one.  This one will be a lot worse.  One thing the models showed from the start on this is the Skagit would be bad.  Unfortnatley the last minute changes have made it worse.

Just doing a little research on the flood history. Seems there was a bad period of destructive flooding on the Skagit in the 1880's to 1920's... followed by a quiet period through the 1960's. Many of the destructive floods followed similar weather patterns to this: heavy snow in the North Cascades followed by a warm rain event. They called the warm rain a "Chinook" back then, pre-Pineapple Express days.   https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1527/report.pdf

 

 

[The Blob]

It's the same temperature as when I went to bed this morning

[The Swamp]

I'm not into stats and I can't quote years or anything but I remember as a kid when we had these nice warm fall/winter days sometimes it was followed by the mother of all arctic dumps into our region.

Fingers crossed.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I'm not into stats and I can't quote years or anything but I remember as a kid when we had these nice warm fall/winter days sometimes it was followed by the mother of all arctic dumps into our region.

Fingers crossed.

1990.