PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Several 55 mph gusts today in Everett.

It has been blowing hard since late last night and all day today.  Strong constant wind, and super strong gusts.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

1990. 

1990 had back-to-back arctic outbreaks.  I remember some areas closer to Seattle had thunder snow.  And it was a white Christmas.  Even had snow falling Christmas morning.

[ShawniganLake]

2.42” so far here. Seems like the real heavy stuff is starting to move in. I wouldn’t be surly if we doubled that amount by morning

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

1990 had back-to-back arctic outbreaks.  I remember some areas closer to Seattle had thunder snow.  And it was a white Christmas.  Even had snow falling Christmas morning.

That's Eugene's most recent white Christmas.

[MossMan]

Just starting to rain. 

[NWbyNW]

Some fun variation in the weather today and will be posting a very unique cloud formation that looks like waves in the Washington Weather Discussion for those interested.  Maybe someone will know their name or what they are called.  But for now, check out the changes in the sky color and water today.  Very windy all day, moderate sustained winds and pretty strong gusts.  Flag hasn't stopped whipping on that flag pole. 

[MossMan]

People in Hamilton are being told to get out. It’s going to be bad up there. 

[Skagit Weather]

I thought for certain the models were overdoing how sharp the precipitation cutoff would be, but they seem to be nailing it. Only 0.7" so far today and 1.4" in the last 24 hours while places 5-7 miles north have an extra inch in that time. I'm just right on the southern edge. 5.5" on the month so far.

[The Winter Warlock]

8.41 inches so far for the month outside of Covington. Wind is starting to pick up.

[Skagit Weather]

Just got back home and driving over the Skagit it was hard to imagine another 8-10 ft of water as it was pretty close to bankfull already. The news crews were set up in downtown Mount Vernon and there were flood lights all along the levees. Will probably go out to take pictures and try to help sandbag tomorrow in the light even though I'm thankfully not in the flood plain.

[The Blob]

47 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

1990 had back-to-back arctic outbreaks.  I remember some areas closer to Seattle had thunder snow.  And it was a white Christmas.  Even had snow falling Christmas morning.

I would love another white Christmas

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

People in Hamilton are being told to get out. It’s going to be bad up there. 

This is going to be terrible for the Skagit.  I hope they can save Mount Vernon from serious flooding.  If I didn't have my new job I would go up and volunteer.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

1990 had back-to-back arctic outbreaks.  I remember some areas closer to Seattle had thunder snow.  And it was a white Christmas.  Even had snow falling Christmas morning.

Those were both intense blasts too.  The first one gave me a low of zero IMBY, and the second one 5.  The Christmas morning snow was actually pretty widespread.  There was also snow going into the second blast, and of course the big one with the initial blast.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

Just doing a little research on the flood history. Seems there was a bad period of destructive flooding on the Skagit in the 1880's to 1920's... followed by a quiet period through the 1960's. Many of the destructive floods followed similar weather patterns to this: heavy snow in the North Cascades followed by a warm rain event. They called the warm rain a "Chinook" back then, pre-Pineapple Express days.   https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1527/report.pdf

 

 

According to what I found the most serious flood between 1921 and 1990 was 1949.  Another interesting fact is they found evidence of a monumental flood in 1815....the same year Tambora erupted.  For what they can tell that flood was orders of magnitude greater than anything since.  If the usual story of major floods on that river leading to cold winters held true with that one it might have been epic.

[Requiem]

Pretty sharp pressure gradient on Monday as that low pressure system slides into the region-- feels like there's definitely the possibility for some pretty strong gusts. 

[snow_wizard]

It looks like the north is getting pounded even harder now.  The radar is just plain nasty.  Too bad that band is so locked into one place.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Up to 2.08" today, which puts us over 3" since yesterday.  Its coming down at a rate of about .3-.4"/hour for about the past 30-40 minutes. 

 

Currently 49.

[MossMan]

Our shower quickly passed by, still only .07” on the day. 58 degrees. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like an extra juicy section of the AR coming through right now.  The radar is starting to fill in over King County.  Snohomish County is in the Olympic shadow or they would be getting hit now.

[snow_wizard]

They upped the Skagit again.  Getting close to 40 feet on the projection now.  This is going to be the greatest flood in over a century on that river.

[Skagit Weather]

Flood forecast continues to worsen for the Skagit. I can't imagine it will actually peak 2' above the record, but it's possible.

Also, unless they're seeing something that I'm not, I'm not exactly sure this forecast for the Samish River is correct either. The rate of river increase is still accelerating and it's still dumping rain out there.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Windy morning on the 00z NAM as well.

 

Got this for Portland and the Central W. Valley? I'd imagine gusts look somewhat similar.

[mtep]

Just got some sketchy pics from my parents of their place in Sudden Valley. These were obviously taken earlier, and I'm scared to think of how much worse it'll get overnight. They don't currently live there (being rented until they move back to the states next year). The creek that runs behind their house is fed by tributaries that go up Lookout Mt (2,600+'). I'll throw some pics from 11/7/18 in for reference. Sorry for the absolute potato quality.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Max gusts for tomorrow per 00z HRRRR.

 

On the FB weather groups they are possibly comparing this potential blow tomorrow to the one that happened on January 13th of this year. I was without power for nearly 5 days. 

[Requiem]

Just now, MossMan said:

On the FB weather groups they are possibly comparing this potential blow tomorrow to the one that happened on January 13th of this year. I was without power for nearly 5 days. 

It is a similar situation in many ways-- albeit the EURO was far more bullish on that system than it is with this one.

[Gradient Keeper]

7:29 PM Radar Update

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty similar. In both cases, winds are tied directly to the frontal passage and timing is dependent on when that moves through. 

Yep fairly uniform pressure rises over western WA, OR which look quite impressive.

00z GFS in 4 minutes

[Skagit Weather]

High Wind Warning just kicked into effect up here. Forecasting 20-30 mph sustained with gusts to 45 mph which I believe is below the standard criteria of 40-60 mph sustained, but maybe they're worried about extra saturated soils causing greater damage (or maybe they're just being cautious in case the mesoscale models verify and we see gusts to 60 mph).

[Cloud]

This is all too ominous.

 

[Meatyorologist]

It absolutely blows my mind how high the 1815 flood of the Skagit river got. Using present guidelines, it had a peak water level of 65 feet! That is over 25 feet higher than what is forecast for this weekend.

That kind of flooding today would submerge the entirety of Sedro-Wooley in at least 1.5 feet of water, and leave the center of the town under 10 feet. A vast stretch of highway 9, including the Skagit River Bridge, would be wiped clean off the map. I can barely imagine the meteorological precursors which would allow such a monstrous volume of water to flow down a single river valley.

That valley is cursed. Without damming it would be a nightmare to live in.

[TacomaWaWx]

[MossMan]

High wind warning just toned on my phone with the Dark Sky app…This November is living up to its old school reputation! 

[Cloud]

Quite windy tomorrow.

[TacomaWaWx]

64/57 today 0.49” this morning…will probably get 0.5-1” of rain with the frontal passage tomorrow. Looks pretty windy tomorrow too. Really hoping people don’t stay behind on those flood warning areas. We got spared from the worst of it down here but unfortunately that means that the northern folks will pay for it. 

[yellowstone]

Just passed an inch for the day. Surreal to see this band just hang out over us since early this AM. Concerned about the wind tomorrow, especially for spots that got so much rain today. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It absolutely blows my mind how high the 1815 flood of the Skagit river got. Using present guidelines, it had a peak water level of 65 feet! That is over 25 feet higher than what is forecast for this weekend.

That kind of flooding today would submerge the entirety of Sedro-Wooley in at least 1.5 feet of water, and leave the center of the town under 10 feet. A vast stretch of highway 9, including the Skagit River Bridge, would be wiped clean off the map. I can barely imagine the meteorological precursors which would allow such a monstrous volume of water to flow down a single river valley.

That valley is cursed. Without damming it would be a nightmare to live in.

I can't imagine what caused that flood. It looks like there isn't a firm date established, but it was based on indigenous retellings of a great flood that happened around 1815. This is an excerpt from a USGS paper about floods on the Skagit from 1962:

INDIAN LEGEND FLOOD OF ABOUT 1815

Reflector Bar (Diablo Dam)

The stories which were told by the Indians support the evidence that the highest flood marks not associated with a more recent flood, and still visible when J. E. Stewart made his investigations over a hundred years later, were left by a flood that occurred "about 1815." Mr. Frank Davis found where sand had been deposited on the ground in a gulch near the present Diablo Dam at an elevation of 22 feet about the datum of the former gaging station at Reflector Bar. It was assumed from the nature of the deposit that the sediment had been left by the stream during a high flood...

Rockport

The magnitude of the 1815 flood is supported further by a legend among the Indians at Rockport that a number of their tribe were drowned on the bench where the Cuthbert ranch is located, during a great flood that occurred at night. This bench is at least 15 feet above the floodmark of 1917.

Concrete

At The Dalles, L. J. Wright, Assistant County Engineer of Skagit County, found deposits of flood sand on the ground in the small northside gulch which lies back of an old cabin at the head of the canyon. This deposit corresponds to a gage height of 69.3 feet present datum.

Sedro Woolley

Stewart estimated that this flood probably exceeded the flood of 1909 by about 7 feet and covered the highest ground in the town of Sedro Woolley with 1.5 feet of water. This would be equiv- alent to 10 feet of water in the present business district. Also, a stage of 63.5 feet (gage datum) is indicated for the 1815 flood.

[Cloud]

As of 5pm, SEA 0.84" for the day. The 63F today was couple degrees shy of tying record high.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3