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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Gorgeous rainbow right over the school at dismissal today.

D3039A9D-7407-4D48-BF44-DDA601A2F912.jpeg

Just noticed a rainbow on the space needle cam... same little cell moving SE.  

 

 

Screenshot_20211116-162433_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was watching that cell on the radar and hoping it missed SEA... would not want to ruin the 0.00 day!  

Of course tomorrow is a lock for another one.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You had more snow than I did last winter. It happens that way sometimes. Corvallis and Eugene had more snow than we did in 2013-14. 

Interesting, my current area had more snow than you in both winters. I had 15.5" last winter and about 14" in 2013-14.

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interesting, my current area had more snow than you in both winters. I had 15.5" last winter and about 14" in 2013-14.

Pretty much all of our snow last winter fell between January 20th and February 3rd. We were in the freezing rain zone during the big event, but being at the very top of the cooler column we had significantly less ice than the valley, so the damage wasn’t to bad. Didn’t keep us from being without power for nearly two weeks though. 
 

But anyways, we just didn’t have very many cool maritime air masses, or borderline elevation dependent snow situations last winter. Obviously the February event was a snow stopper, but February and March 2020 had a lot more in the way of cool troughing.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SEA is already down to 44... going to be a cold night.    First hard freeze seems likely here... its mostly clear and calm right now.   Although the ECMWF does show the east wind picking up overnight.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I heard the flooding in the town of Merritt, 7000 people evacuated, was so extreme that it likely exceeded a 200 year flood projection. 

 I actually visited that town once.  Spent the night and everything.  Nice place.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Totally clear and already down to 42.  Might get a two for the price of one freeze tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

Both.  Sometimes I stop watching the radar and let myself be surprised in certain situations.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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36 after a high of 43.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

36 after a high of 43.

Finally a real chill for your area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

It got close to be fair

20211116_153734.jpg

No... that is a straight up failure for the ECMWF.    This is what the 00Z ECMWF showed yesterday evening for last night and this morning.    There was no accumulating snow in the lowlands anywhere.     The ECMWF has been surprisingly bad so far this fall... worse than I have ever seen.   Even the Kuchera map showed accumulating snow in the same area... just less.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_24hr-7107200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I was about 3 miles too far south in February. I ended up with an inch or two of snow followed by at least an inch of ZR. It was brutal. Meanwhile, areas north of the Clackamas County line in the metro area got much more snow and much less freezing rain. Still damaging elsewhere, but I was in a terrible spot since I was far enough north to remain below freezing, but far enough south to not be influenced enough by the cold air pumping out of the Columbia Gorge. 

That's why I love that my job is at the mouth of the gorge. Good chances of getting paid to stay home. 

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

Once it begins I don’t want to see the radar and try to just enjoy it.  Of course I chime in here and scroll quickly past any radar post! Sometimes hard to do :( 

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12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Rex block mentioned the last couple days via nws. 

Does this crap ever end here?

The overall pattern has been very active since the middle of September... blocks do happen at times when the pattern relaxes.   We can't have a raging jet stream all the time... its not how the world works.    You live on the desert side of the Cascade crest so you might not notice the difference between a very active pattern and a blocking pattern.    But in western WA the difference can be night and day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

Yeah... you are definitely a radar hawk along with me.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No... that is a straight up failure for the ECMWF.    This is what the 00Z ECMWF showed yesterday evening for last night and this morning.    There was no accumulating snow in the lowlands anywhere.     The ECMWF has been surprisingly bad so far this fall... worse than I have ever seen.   Even the Kuchera map showed accumulating snow in the same area... just less.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_24hr-7107200.png

Yeah I even drove up past my neighbors on the hill and went to the highest point which is just over 800ft, it was almost pure snow falling but zero accumulation. 

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16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

My absolute favorite thing is when the precip looks like it's going to run out, but it starts to backfill out of nowhere.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I normally don’t root for an episode of ridging, but I am now rooting for an episode of ridging.

It will be a chance to get some chilly weather too.  Ridging in a La Nina November is fine....especially after the soaking we've been through.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The overall pattern has been very active since the middle of September... blocks do happen at times when the pattern relaxes.   We can't have a raging jet stream all the time... its not how the world works.    You live on the desert side of the Cascade crest so you might not notice the difference between a very active pattern and a blocking pattern.    But in western WA the difference can be night and day.  

You act like I have no idea.  I lived 40+ plus years on that side of the mountains.  13+ of them were in Western WA.

Just seems like the Rex block/ridging patterns set up way too often these days in Dec/Jan....and I could be wrong.

Probably just my yearning for a good "middle of the winter" pattern to finally set up.  Screw Turkey Day action......too early, even over here.  

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You act like I have no idea.  I lived 40+ plus years on that side of the mountains.  13+ of them were in Western WA.

Just seems like the Rex block/ridging patterns set up way too often these days in Dec/Jan....and I could be wrong.

Probably just my yearning for a good "middle of the winter" pattern to finally set up.  Screw Turkey Day action......too early, even over here.  

I was thinking you had forgotten.  😀 

There certainly hasn't been much blocking for the last couple months.   Seems like we are sort of due.  I thought you were saying it never ends.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Totally unreal.  The models absolutely nailed it for that area getting slammed.  The one thing they were consistent on right up to the end.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking you had forgotten.  😀 

There certainly hasn't been much blocking for the last couple months.   Seems like we are sort of due.  I thought you were saying it never ends.

Like I said.  I could be wrong, it just seems that we get incessant ridging every winter.....at some point.  It probably has always happened throughout our recorded history, I am probably just overly sensitive these days.

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My absolute favorite thing is when the precip looks like it's going to run out, but it starts to backfill out of nowhere.

I remember so vividly on 11/27/06 I was at work (large senior community as a full time landscaper/grounds person) my co worker and I were trying to keep up with the snow removal but it just kept coming and coming, the constant cracking and crashing of limbs and trees was becoming surreal. Anyway the sky kept brightening up that day and it was looking like the snow would stop, then BAM it would get dark again and the heavy snow would resume time and time again…It was epic! 

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11 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You act like I have no idea.  I lived 40+ plus years on that side of the mountains.  13+ of them were in Western WA.

Just seems like the Rex block/ridging patterns set up way too often these days in Dec/Jan....and I could be wrong.

Probably just my yearning for a good "middle of the winter" pattern to finally set up.  Screw Turkey Day action......too early, even over here.  

We're not even in Dec or Jan yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

It's easy for me since the radar coverage barely works here for snowfall, which commonly falls from clouds that aren't necessarily high enough up in the atmosphere for the radar to pick up. I do look at satellite loops a lot and infrared ones at night. It's also easy to do since it hasn't exactly been snowy here lately.

When the snow does fall, I always take walks around my neighborhood. I love how different everything looks under a coat of white and the unique quiet and sounds of the falling snow. I also love the return walk seeing my old footprints partially filled back up with snow. I also just love to stand outside in the privacy of my backyard and stare up at the snow looking like a dork, which I am. Finally, I love the squishy crunch sound fresh snow makes when you stomp it with your shoe. Man I miss snow.

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I just looked at the 1980s at SLE. Every December/January combo had at least one 7 day dry stretch except 1987-88... Which by the way, was a bit more decent of a winter than I had realized. Well Dec/January was decent, February was dry and mild. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You act like I have no idea.  I lived 40+ plus years on that side of the mountains.  13+ of them were in Western WA.

Just seems like the Rex block/ridging patterns set up way too often these days in Dec/Jan....and I could be wrong.

Probably just my yearning for a good "middle of the winter" pattern to finally set up.  Screw Turkey Day action......too early, even over here.  

Feels like we’re mildly overdue for a big mid winter dry spell. Seems like it’s been since December 2017 since our last fairly prolific run of such.

Phil says no way no how this year though…

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power crews have made good progress, though I do know a few people on Camano that are still in the dark. You can almost guarantee a loss of power up here during westerly surge events. 

BE933FF4-80BE-424C-8AAD-0A256C231897.jpeg

All the more if they live on the south end. My wife and I joke that it loses power every time there is a single gust. We lived in Lost Lake which is part of the central grid. They lose power often but less than south Camano. The north grid by Terry's corner loses it only in really terrible weather and not frequently. Stanwood proper is also not super common regarding outages.

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