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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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7 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z CFS was so good I have to post it. Ohhh it makes me think, "What IF?" This is model porn right here! Well, not towards the end. Ignore that. Cold, reloads, snow, more cold. MBG Money Back Guarantee! YEAH! C'MON!!!!

floop-cfs-2021111700.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-cfs-2021111700.850th.conus.gif

floop-cfs-2021111700_sfct.conus.gif

Wow that would be amaaaaaazing if that panned out. 🥶

How reliable is the CFS though? 😁

 

 

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Pretty breezy all night so temperature only dropped to 34F. Interestingly, in sheltered areas there were frozen puddles so it must have gotten cold enough for that.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Took my spouse and I 15-20 mins to get the ice off ours cars when it usually takes five. Ice puddles on the roads too.

Just start the car and turn on the defrost full blast... only takes 2 or 3 minutes no matter how frosty.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Did that today....ice was very thick. But usually that's the way to go.

I have done that when the car is a block of ice... go back in the house and get a cup coffee and come back out and the car is cooking and and covered in water.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have done that when the car is a block of ice... go back in the house and get a cup coffee and come back out and the car is cooking and and covered in water.   😀

This is why I keep coming back to this forum. Stellar model analysis and valuable life hacks. 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Andrew appears to have been involved in the evolution of the 12z GFS.

:)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like Springfield made it down to 30F. Coldest temp so far.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have done that when the car is a block of ice... go back in the house and get a cup coffee and come back out and the car is cooking and and covered in water.   😀

Or stolen but apparently not in an HOA subdivision 

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Already up into the mid 40s down in the valley... and you can see the east wind blowing on the NB cam.   Still calm up here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No action here on the GFS as is tradition...unless we're talking about heat and warmth. Then we're rockin' and rollin'!

GFS Shit Location.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, Chris said:

Company vehicle got stolen and stripped by doing that.

OK... well in some areas you might have to start the car and sit in it and wait.    Still easier than scraping ice.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

OK... well in some areas you might have to start the car and sit in it and wait.    Still easier than scraping ice.  😀

I just walk upstairs and fire up my work computer. 😁

 

When I *do* have to go into the office I just plug my coolant heater in the night before and have 140-150* water temp at the turn of the key! 

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Interesting weather discussions on the community Facebook group today... They are talking about a Thanksgiving in the late 80s that had a lot of snow... They seem to be claiming it was 1989, but looking at the Silver Falls data, I don't think there would have been much if any snow that Thanksgiving. Temps at the Silver Falls station look fairly close, and our area sits a little higher and gets more snow usually, but I kind of think they must be thinking about 1985... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z ECMWF keeps the Seattle area dry through most of the day tomorrow with the precip finally moving in during the evening and overnight hours.    Even with the more favorable timing... the suddenly generous ECMWF snowfall maps do not show any lowland snow with this event. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-7272800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-7366400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting weather discussions on the community Facebook group today... They are talking about a Thanksgiving in the late 80s that had a lot of snow... They seem to be claiming it was 1989, but looking at the Silver Falls data, I don't think there would have been much if any snow that Thanksgiving. Temps at the Silver Falls station look fairly close, and our area sits a little higher and gets more snow usually, but I kind of think they must be thinking about 1985... 

It's funny, now they are talking about a huge snowfall in "January 1981," the lady says her son was born in June 1980 and it was after that, so they must be talking about December 1980, that was a major event up here, but January 81' was a total torch. 

Interesting, it must have been 1989, the lady names the kids in the picture, and I know one of them is the same age as me, and he looks about 5 in the picture... That few hundred feet difference between Drakes Crossing and South Falls must have made the difference that time. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny, now they are talking about a huge snowfall in "January 1981," the lady says her son was born in June 1980 and it was after that, so they must be talking about December 1980, that was a major event up here, but January 81' was a total torch. 

Interesting, it must have been 1989, the lady names the kids in the picture, and I know one of them is the same age as me, and he looks about 5 in the picture... That few hundred feet difference between Drakes Crossing and South Falls must have made the difference that time. 

I always fight the urge to lose it when people casually bring up things like January 2004 or December 2008 and sh*t the bed when it comes to what year it actually occurred.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Very slow to warm up here today.  Only up to 37.

Just about 50 in North Bend now with the east wind blowing. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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38F and still cloudy. Nice day!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny, now they are talking about a huge snowfall in "January 1981," the lady says her son was born in June 1980 and it was after that, so they must be talking about December 1980, that was a major event up here, but January 81' was a total torch. 

Interesting, it must have been 1989, the lady names the kids in the picture, and I know one of them is the same age as me, and he looks about 5 in the picture... That few hundred feet difference between Drakes Crossing and South Falls must have made the difference that time. 

Also, I think that was 1988. We had a bunch of chunky rain right around Thanksgiving that year.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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