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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny, now they are talking about a huge snowfall in "January 1981," the lady says her son was born in June 1980 and it was after that, so they must be talking about December 1980, that was a major event up here, but January 81' was a total torch. 

Interesting, it must have been 1989, the lady names the kids in the picture, and I know one of them is the same age as me, and he looks about 5 in the picture... That few hundred feet difference between Drakes Crossing and South Falls must have made the difference that time. 

So 1985 was the year with big snows for a lot of people.  Don't know about Oregon, but this was a major and long lasting cold event with quite a few different snowfalls spread out region wide.

1981 could be between Christmas and New Years.  We seemed to have a few years during in the early 80s with snow during that time frame.  But I can't remember which years exactly.  

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So 1985 was the year with big snows for a lot of people.  Don't know about Oregon, but this was a major and long lasting cold event with quite a few different snowfalls spread out region wide.

1981 could be between Christmas and New Years.  We seemed to have a few years during in the early 80s with snow during that time frame.  But I can't remember which years exactly.  

1985 would have definitely been a white Thanksgiving up here, I think the bigger willamette valley snows were early December, but our area would have gotten 6-10” a few days before Thanksgiving. I’ll have to check December 81’, I know January 1982 got cold. There was a big snow event up here in December 1980, the rest of that winter was pretty awful though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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CFS looks better...

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1985 would have definitely been a white Thanksgiving up here, I think the bigger willamette valley snows were early December, but our area would have gotten 6-10” a few days before Thanksgiving. I’ll have to check December 81’, I know January 1982 got cold. There was a big snow event up here in December 1980, the rest of that winter was pretty awful though. 

Jan 1982 was the record breaking snowfall in Tahoe. 67" in 24 hours at Echo summit. My neighbor recorded 50" in 24 hours at lake level in the "banana belt"

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I have done that when the car is a block of ice... go back in the house and get a cup coffee and come back out and the car is cooking and and covered in water.   😀

I hit a button on my truck key fob while inside sipping coffee to start it up. It sits under a carport so it’s never frosty but the truck auto senses the temp outside and turns on the heated seats and heated steering wheel along with the heat and defrosters. In the summer it automatically turns on the AC and the cooling seats…I love my truck. 🥰

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I always fight the urge to lose it when people casually bring up things like January 2004 or December 2008 and sh*t the bed when it comes to what year it actually occurred.  

YES!!! This!! I can’t help but correct them…Even if I am not a part of the conversation. 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I hit a button on my truck key fob while inside sipping coffee to start it up. It sits under a carport so it’s never frosty but the truck auto senses the temp outside and turns on the heated seats and heated steering wheel along with the heat and defrosters. In the summer it automatically turns on the AC and the cooling seats…I love my truck. 🥰

What brand of truck do you have, if you don't mind me asking? My Tacoma's steering wheel might as well be made out of Otter Pop's during winter. My next one will have a heated steering wheel no matter what. I didn't realize that some trucks can auto enable it once the temp is cold enough. I want that 🙂 

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7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

What brand of truck do you have, if you don't mind me asking? My Tacoma's steering wheel might as well be made out of Otter Pop's during winter. My next one will have a heated steering wheel no matter what. I didn't realize that some trucks can auto enable it once the temp is cold enough. I want that 🙂 

must be a toyota thing my sequoia is the same way. I even bought a heated steering wheel cover but it was garbage. 

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12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

What brand of truck do you have, if you don't mind me asking? My Tacoma's steering wheel might as well be made out of Otter Pop's during winter. My next one will have a heated steering wheel no matter what. I didn't realize that some trucks can auto enable it once the temp is cold enough. I want that 🙂 

It’s a 2020 GMC Sierra. 🙂

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

welp. Full EPS run

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1637150400-1637150400-1638403200-10.gif

I actually don't hate it. Nice to finally see some NPAC blocking showing up and the AK vortex getting pushed out right at the end of the run. Baby steps.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I actually don't hate it. Nice to finally see some NPAC blocking showing up and the AK vortex getting pushed out right at the end of the run. Baby steps.

Also the -NAO helps keep the high arctic cold, effectively shutting off cyclonic warm advection from the NATL.

The majority of winters since the 1990s have had the opposite DJF pattern (+NAO), and it has hurt the ice pack/drawn in lots of warm water. This reversal (even if temporary) is a joy to see.

72807CA5-11A7-47E5-9FE7-4F4043A32FEF.png

E941070C-DE1F-496B-A0B0-27FACAF0CB9C.png

CDD63E3A-6902-4A7A-BCC8-BFADC83A3FE2.png

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14 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I actually don't hate it. Nice to finally see some NPAC blocking showing up and the AK vortex getting pushed out right at the end of the run. Baby steps.

Exactly! It is progress in the right direction!

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 21 minutes

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Guys, what if I told you that Thursday/Friday's rain is trending north? Would that be surprising to you? It's the opposite for me. The 18z HRRR, 18Z ICON, 18z NAM, and 18z high-def GEM all agree. Olympia and Tacoma will probably be the big winners. Portland is on the far southern periphery of making out ok right now. You, me, and the mailman all know that Oregon will get left out again.

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Temps do look like there getting Colder at the end 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-7150400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7150400.png

Unfortunately, that is only because the last day only goes till 12z which is 4 AM. Easy mistake to make as it can look misleading on these charts.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Temps do look like there getting Colder at the end 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-7150400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7150400.png

I know we have mentioned this many times... but the last day on the 12Z runs is the high temp for the day through 4 a.m.  so that day does not count.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Unfortunately, that is only because the last day only goes till 12z which is 4 AM. Easy mistake to make as it can look misleading on these charts.

Thanks for getting this one...

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Guys, what if I told you that Thursday/Friday's rain is trending north? Would that be surprising to you? It's the opposite for me. The 18z HRRR, 18Z ICON, 18z NAM, and 18z high-def GEM all agree. Olympia and Tacoma will probably be the big winners. Portland is on the far southern periphery of making out ok right now. You, me, and the mailman all know that Oregon will get left out again.

I think at this point we up here are just us frustrated with precip trending north as you are, and would root bigtime for a southern reversal. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know we have mentioned this many times... but the last day on the 12Z runs is the high temp for the day through 4 a.m.  so that day does not count.  😀

Yes you have and I forgot lol

These new upgrades should fix that 😉

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Easterly gradients continue to strengthen as a chilly and gusty east wind continues east of I-205 in PDX area. It feels great!

  • 1 PM
[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -7.9mb
TTD-DLS: -7.3mb
 
[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -9.8mb
PDX-MWH: -10.7mb
PDX-GEG: -11.1mb
OTH-GEG: -15.1mb
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9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I think at this point we up here are just us frustrated with precip trending north as you are, and would root bigtime for a southern reversal. 

Well, root all you want, but it doesn't work that way. It's a one way street and it heads north.

18z GFS says... north she goes. Game over.

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

North enough to cut our QPF by more than half in one run. And, it will continue trending north until we end up with .15'' when it's all said and done.

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

Not worth it. Just trolling at this point. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

A solid 1" for me.

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

A solid 1" for me.

Yeah... PDX should be close to 6 inches of rain for November by the 19th.   Not everything is completely missing PDX.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Well, root all you want, but it doesn't work that way. It's a one way street and it heads north.

18z GFS says... north she goes. Game over.

Happiness in life is infants drowning in swollen holding ponds.

I should write greeting cards.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

Wait until the 18z and 00z runs. That's old news.

I don't have a specific target to be statistically satisfied. Maybe when we have a yearly surplus of +10'' or greater for two consecutive years. 

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I'm not going to wring my hands over where some weak dying system goes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Wait until the 18z and 00z runs. That's old news.

I don't have a specific target to be statistically satisfied. Maybe when we have a yearly surplus of +10'' or greater for two consecutive years. 

The ECMWF at 24 hours out is not going to change much.     

And you are probably going to have a long wait for +10 inches for two consecutive years.    That is a real stretch statistically.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Deweydog said:

If it might fall as snow I would. 

That's a good point. If this was mid-December this system might actually be fairly interesting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF at 24 hours out is not going to change much.     

And you are probably going to have a long wait for +10 inches for two consecutive years.    That is a real stretch statistically.  

The Euro has been playing follow the leader in regards to QPF lately. It's the last to flip. It might take until 00z run tonight or even the 12z run tomorrow, but it will come around. You'll see.

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Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The Euro has been playing follow the leader in regards to QPF lately. It's the last to flip. It might take until 00z run tonight or even the 12z run tomorrow, but it will come around. You'll see.

It will be wetter than today!  Enjoy.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

Fun fact Tim is going to LOVE. Since 1892, Salem has never had back to back calendar years that were 10"+ in precip. The only two times they came very close were 2016& 2017 and 1995&1996. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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