PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Brennan]

Absolutely drenching rain coming down for the past hour. Relentless. Never seen anything like it. 

[Requiem]

This is a horrid situation unfolding up north. Afraid at what daylight may reveal as the rain continues to fall.

[North_County]

13 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

If the records on this site are correct, then I believe the Nooksack River should set a record high in the next few hours (forecast looks underdone).

The description of the flood impacts does not sound good: 

The Nooksack River will cause major near record flooding downstream through Lynden. Deep and swift flood waters will inundate farm lands...roads...and residential areas. The flood may overtop levees. In addition...flood waters could overflow and flood the Sumas drainage. Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the Nooksack River Basin.

The historical data from the North Cedarville gauge is misleading. If you look at the historical crests, the earliest I can find is from 2003, which is.....telling. I believe this is the same location as what we used to call the Nugent's Corner gauge back in the 90s, and flood stage started at about 12 feet. My guess is they switched to measuring by elelvation rather than depth in the early 2000s.

FWIW, it already reached the point of flooding the Sumas drainage several hours ago, and I'm expecting the water to reach Sumas proper any minute now.

[Gradient Keeper]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

If the records on this site are correct, then I believe the Nooksack River should set a record high in the next few hours (forecast looks underdone).

The description of the flood impacts does not sound good: 

The Nooksack River will cause major near record flooding downstream through Lynden. Deep and swift flood waters will inundate farm lands...roads...and residential areas. The flood may overtop levees. In addition...flood waters could overflow and flood the Sumas drainage. Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the Nooksack River Basin.

Not good at all. Thanks for the additional information. Another one of my admins lives in Lynden. I hope he is not going to be flooded.

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

The historical data from the North Cedarville gauge is misleading. If you look at the historical crests, the earliest I can find is from 2003, which is.....telling. I believe this is the same location as what we used to call the Nugent's Corner gauge back in the 90s, and flood stage started at about 12 feet. My guess is they switched to measuring by elelvation rather than depth in the early 2000s.

FWIW, it already reached the point of flooding the Sumas drainage several hours ago, and I'm expecting the water to reach Sumas proper any minute now.

That's what I figured based on the nature of all the dates being more recent and close to the same values. Stay safe!

[Cloud]

These are some pretty big numbers being show for the winds tomorrow. And the situation near the BC border is downright grim base on multiple reports.  The 3rd siren rang in Hamilton and people are now forced to flee. 

 

[North_County]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Not good at all. Thanks for the additional information. Another one of my admins lives in Lynden. I hope he is not going to be flooded.

Lynden is on a ridge above the river. There will be no river flooding in Lynden itself (maybe small streams and standing water). The farmland at the base of the ridge will almost certainly flood, however.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, North_County said:

Lynden is on a ridge above the river. There will be no river flooding in Lynden itself (maybe small streams and standing water). The farmland at the base of the ridge will almost certainly flood, however.

Oh, thanks for the info. That is a relief.

[Cloud]

AR update: The bad news is that we have many many hours of this left to go. The good news is that it is starting to break at the end, so there is light at the end of the tunnel. 

The most important thing to look for is a shift somewhere to get the firehose out of the Northern region. Don't see it yet. Gotta hope for the best. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Nooksack River at North Cedarville is minutes away from reaching major flood stage.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the last thing they need.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021

Areas affected...Northwest Washington

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 150858Z - 152000Z

SUMMARY...Atmospheric river conditions will continue to produce
heavy rainfall through midday across the Olympic Peninsula and the
northern portion of the Cascades.  The potential exists for an
additional 2 to 3 inches of rain by noon local time with instances
of enhanced run-off and localized flooding possible. 

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-17 satellite imagery continues to portray
a corridor of enhanced moisture that is associated with an
atmospheric river oriented from WSW to ENE, originating from near
Hawaii.  Regional Doppler radars indicate a steady surge of
moderate to heavy rain moving across the northern Olympic
Peninsula and the northern-most Cascades and extending into
southern British Columbia.  It is these areas where the flow will
be orthogonal to the terrain and the greatest rainfall totals
realized.

A strong west-southwest low-level jet on the order of 50-60 mph,
in combination with IVT values of 600-900 kg/m/s and PWs of 1.2 to
1.4 inches, per recent SPC mesoanalysis within the moisture plume,
will sustain widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through the
late morning hours, followed by a gradual abatement in intensity
by the afternoon as the frontal boundary drops southward as a cold
front.  The latest CAM guidance is suggesting the potential for up
to 3 inches of additional rainfall through noon local time.

Given highly saturated soils from anomalous rainfall over the past
three days, there will be additional run-off and potential
localized flooding of poor drainage areas through the remainder of
the morning hours.  Any burn scar areas will be even more
sensitive to these heavier rains.

[Gradient Keeper]

3:24 AM Radar Update - No changes

[The Blob]

It's 60 in Troutdale right now  

[GoldenEars]

Woke up to go to the bathroom and discovered every room in my basement suite has soaked carpet and the water just keeps getting higher outside in the fields around my place.

[Meatyorologist]

35 minutes ago, GoldenEars said:

Woke up to go to the bathroom and discovered every room in my basement suite has soaked carpet and the water just keeps getting higher outside in the fields around my place.

stay safe man

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, GoldenEars said:

Woke up to go to the bathroom and discovered every room in my basement suite has soaked carpet and the water just keeps getting higher outside in the fields around my place.

That's awful. I hope it doesn't get any higher!

[Gradient Keeper]

Yet another river in Washington has now reached major flood stage. The Bogachiel River near La Push. Not only is it in major flood stage, but it is at record levels. Wow.

 

[The Blob]

@DJ Droppinit's not windy here, maybe a light breeze.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is some hopeful good news. The new forecast peak crest for the Skagit River at Mt. Vernon has come down quite a bit from 41.6' now to 37.4' which still puts it at record levels though.

 

Additionally the Skagit River at Concrete forecast peak crest has also bumped downward from over 41' to 39.2' which is about 12' from record levels. We will take any good news we can get right now for those folks.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

@DJ Droppinit's not windy here, maybe a light breeze.

Breezy south winds here near west Gresham.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was about as mild and boring as one could imagine for this time of year. Starting to look familiar... hopefully by thanksgiving we see a sign of a pattern change. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The Nooksack River at North Cedarville is now at a new record level and just inches from major flood stage.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z was about as mild and boring as one could imagine for this time of year. Starting to look familiar... hopefully by thanksgiving we see a sign of a pattern change. 

By my estimation we're about 4 days out from seeing a major pattern change to blocking. Whether the block sets up right over us, just offshore, or out in the Gulf of Alaska is uncertain.

[Tyler Mode]

The average temperature for 11.14.21 was 61.7, good enough for the 2nd warmest November day in my records.

In addition, the first 12 days of the month were the wettest on record with 6.82" of rain.

The next closest wasn't even close, with 2.43" in 2015.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

By my estimation we're about 4 days out from seeing a major pattern change to blocking. Whether the block sets up right over us, just offshore, or out in the Gulf of Alaska is uncertain.

Hope I’m wrong, but I bet we see another significantly wet mild stretch once the pacific ramps up again.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope I’m wrong, but I bet we see another significantly wet mild stretch once the pacific ramps up again.

You could very well be right.

[Blizzard777]

Prayers for all up north as this event unfolds and for those currently dealing with the nightmare that’s already unfolded! Being trapped in between landslide……no words for that one…powerless situation being trapped like that. Ugh   

[Blizzard777]

59* this morning and winds have come down a bit.  Most active winds took place between 1-3 am.  No new rainfall 

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here is some hopeful good news. The new forecast peak crest for the Skagit River at Mt. Vernon has come down quite a bit from 41.6' now to 37.4' which still puts it at record levels though.

 

Additionally the Skagit River at Concrete forecast peak crest has also bumped downward from over 41' to 39.2' which is about 12' from record levels. We will take any good news we can get right now for those folks.

This might be because main plume has lifted north of Mt. Vernon and the mountains directly to the east of there just enough to give them a break.   Its not much... but I think it helps.

[TT-SEA]

Totally dry out here this morning... drizzle stopped yesterday evening.     

[Ellsworb]

0.00" logged since midnight with all surfaces (including grass) dry on the east shore of lake tapps.  Breeze picking up.  We had to weight down the tarps on the roof yesterday afternoon.  Appears our leak is just a symptom of a larger issue and a new roof is now going on.  Found damage to some of our rafters that "appears" to be from an impact of something.  Alas, it will be awesome to get rid of these obsolete concrete tiles that give me pause every time I look at them.

[The Blob]

56 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Breezy south winds here near west Gresham.

It's breezy at my house. So I don't know why is wasn't at work

[Skagit Weather]

Samish river is about to crest at a new record (although records have only been kept here for a couple decades I believe). I'd imagine Samish Island is currently close to or completely cut off.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thankful to see the river forecasts have improved a bit.  Also....I apologize if I seemed a bit pedantic yesterday.  I'm at the age where mad scientist syndrome has set in a little bit. 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

59* this morning and winds have come down a bit.  Most active winds took place between 1-3 am.  No new rainfall 

It apparently got pretty windy here too.  Quite a few limbs down.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It apparently got pretty windy here too.  Quite a few limbs down.

Wind is howling here this morning... we might lose power today.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thankful to see the river forecasts have improved a bit.  Also....I apologize if I seemed a bit pedantic yesterday.  I'm at the age where mad scientist syndrome has set in a little bit. 

I had to look up pedantic... I think I have the same syndrome.   

Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I had to look up pedantic... I think I have the same syndrome.   

Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter.

Oh... you do...

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh... you do...

Shots fired! Coffee isn’t even ready yet …lol

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Shots fired! Coffee isn’t even ready yet …lol

I have already had my first cup of coffee... and I fired the shot at myself.