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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving.   This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_48hr_inch-7949600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving.   This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_48hr_inch-7949600.png

Thankfully it’s the gfs so it won’t happen…right?

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Every run is swinging wildly. 12z keeps the same pattern going pretty much the whole month. Mild SW flow.

You beat me to it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We just hit 7" for the storm total, 2.2" since midnight at Doe Bay on Orcas. The one road to town has apparently washed out this morning- right next to the resort. Lots of power outages across the islands but we still have power for now.

Here are some pic from the stream on our property...

IMG_20211115_082826.thumb.jpg.0ccf7d8ca66d4d6cd0015f5fb9c768bf.jpg

IMG_20211115_080414.jpg

IMG_20211115_082815.jpg

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving.   This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_48hr_inch-7949600.png

The N/S gradient is a cruel mistress.

More warm overcast for us.

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The N/S gradient is a cruel mistress.

More warm overcast for us.

Yeah... you are missing out on all the fun they are having up north.  🙄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Remember a couple runs ago when the GFS was showing a big cold trough in the east. LOL

gfs_z500a_namer_56.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you are missing out on all the fun they are having up north.  🙄

Maybe it will trend south and soothe our parched land. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Parts of the town of Princeton BC are reported to have flood water 6-7 feet deep this morning 

Pretty crazy... that location is east of the Cascade crest.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some hope in the long range.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_59.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Just realizing that Tiger is right about the south valley. We can’t get a single interesting event aimed at us.

Thank God I live north of the Santiam River. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

This run does??

FF86873B-7DE5-4906-A83E-03032AD9128D.png

Must be pretty transitory...

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z GFS shows over 8 inches at SEA in the next 2 weeks... would give 2006 a run for its money.     If that were to verify this might end up the wettest month ever recorded in Seattle.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just realizing that Tiger is right about the south valley. We can’t get a single interesting event aimed at us.

Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964).

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964).

As far as recent months go December 2015 was pretty gnarly. Just dumped rain for days as system after system came through.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964).

Ahhh January 2012... That was a good one. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Touring some of the flood waters in Skagit before going to help sandbag.

Flood is pretty comparable with other events in the last couple decades on the Samish although supposedly this is a record high crest.

46AFA279-79EF-4068-90C3-543C4EEAF2E2.thumb.jpeg.8d2f823c949fd85ddb643bdf31f4d352.jpeg

4F5F66C0-9CD1-49E6-941C-6B06D6D6EE53.thumb.jpeg.611fbb346d946a6e25ed8e8fe57493b9.jpeg

E52A3543-6825-4582-89C1-6CD3207BC8A1.thumb.jpeg.7d5376ba3480484a6f213e0b6f6324ff.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

As far as recent months go December 2015 was pretty gnarly. Just dumped rain for days as system after system came through.

Yeah, that would be an example of Oregon getting in the jet's crosshairs without any massive cold air to the north. The raging Nino helped set that up.

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty crazy... that location is east of the Cascade crest.   

Merritt has sustained major flooding as well. 

 

Reports of the Coquihalla highway may have sustained major damage. Possibly involving bridges.  That is the main truck route from Vancouver to the Interior. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just got an alert that I-5 northbound is closed at Nulle Rd due to a mudslide.

Since Hwy 9 is almost certainly closed now, that means the only way into whatcom county from the south would be Chukanut Drive, right? And I'm not sure I'd feel real comfortable taking that route right now, either.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, that would be an example of Oregon getting in the jet's crosshairs without any massive cold air to the north. The raging Nino helped set that up.

Somehow that was the snowiest December since moving here in 2011... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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