Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Recommended Posts

Big block on the 18z but way to far west at this point. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45/41 today 0.43” this morning. Haven’t had any rain this afternoon but totally overcast all day. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

If the column is dry enough and/or the precip is heavy enough, it can snow at surprisingly warm temperatures. There are some anecdotes of 50°F snow in the highlands of the Rockies during spring showers. Dry late Spring air, heavy convective showers, and thin air (lower thermal conductivity) allow it, albeit transient and only lasting for a few seconds. That's an extreme example though.

Yeah, I've seen 47F snow in Nevada near Reno before. Now, that was based on the car thermometer, but I don't think it was much colder than 45F.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I forgot all about the ECMWF weeklies yesterday and they are pretty good.  The mean is decent and the control was quite cold and snowy during part of December.  In a more generalized way of looking at it the teleconnection forecasts have the PNA and EPO both minus for a good period of time on yesterday's run.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only 44 for the high here today.  Decently chilly.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

December will be decent to good. January is when the shoe really drops. THIS IS THE YEAR. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December will be decent to good. January is when the shoe really drops. THIS IS THE YEAR. 

This isn't like you...

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1637344800-1637344800-1638727200-10.gif

No doubt the general theme is showing up on all of the models now.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models are finally showing the MJO might wake up and end up in octant 7 next month.  Statistically the best spot for cold here.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I forgot all about the ECMWF weeklies yesterday and they are pretty good.  The mean is decent and the control was quite cold and snowy during part of December.  In a more generalized way of looking at it the teleconnection forecasts have the PNA and EPO both minus for a good period of time on yesterday's run.

For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here.

Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow.

  • Snow 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here.

Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow.

It would be interesting if you get December back and we get January back this winter.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rather interestingly the ECMWF shows much of King County being one of the coldest places in the Western Lowlands tomorrow night.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It really rained a lot up here this morning. I left for work around 8a and according to radar it continued to rain for several more hours. Ended up with 0.97” today after nearly half an inch yesterday evening. Surpassed the 12” mark on the month now. We have a decent shot at 15” this month which is generally what I consider an impressively wet month here. Amazing how much more rain we got with this than SLE. Often we have the biggest differential with these weaker systems as the valley gets shadowed a little more and they hang up along the west slopes of the Cascades. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This isn't like you...

It’s not. I am usually much more pessimistic, and who knows we could end up with a hideously lame winter regardless. But things seem to be progressing pretty well... it’s really cold up north right now too, so there is some fairly cold air to work with on this side of the pole. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days).

image.thumb.png.971e48ee18eb88ce3276f05ab2b4a98a.png

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Gloomy dark day it was 

46/41 currently 43*

 

It has actually managed to clear out here for now at least.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days).

image.thumb.png.971e48ee18eb88ce3276f05ab2b4a98a.png

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

What pray tell would those years be?

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

What pray tell would those years be?

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Analogs usually make me yawn.  Pete Parsons lives by them.

This should tell you all you need to know.  I would rather just wait and see and GOLU like I never have before.

Analogs are just one of many tools in the box for long range forecasting.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Days are short and it's almost the 25th (Thanksgiving, that is).

If you haven't seen how short the days are up here this time of year you should visit sometime.  It can be VERY dark if we are in a gloomy pattern.

  • Like 3
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

Pretty nice group

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Most of us know this, but we have 4 or 5 good ones spanned out 100 years.  They hold no water though if you really look at the overall picture.  Mark knows this as well.

We’ve had more good ones in the past 100 years than you would think... they were just all before about 1980... lol

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

2006/2007 was decent in Oregon. I was still living there at the time. It was the winter I joined this forum. :wub:

  • Like 3
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

Woah, pardon me for being late to the game here but please divulge on the Skagit river flood connection. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...