PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Blizzard777]

Forks looks to be cut off from the world. Unsure how the vampires feel about that 

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS takes the Thursday system way south and basically misses WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GFS takes the Thursday system way south and basically misses WA.

We’re on the northern edge of it. Wasn’t a bad run though. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We’re on the northern edge of it. Wasn’t a bad run though. 

Gets going again after day 10... but through day 10 it was quite dry.

 

[TT-SEA]

Full EPS run... takes us into December now.     Much drier than normal over the next 15 days again like previous runs.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I did it a bunch when I was a kid. It has to be in the mid 20's or colder for a good outcome.  Next time it gets in the teens I want to fire up my pressure washer and shoot it in the air.

I remember a story on the news several years back of a time when Portland got skunked on snow but it still got really cold.  The dad rigged something up with his air compressor and the water hose and turned their backyard into a winter wonderland.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM is much farther north with the Thursday system...

 

[LowerGarfield]

41F outside and it feels cold. I was expecting a colder temperature though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gets going again after day 10... but through day 10 it was quite dry.

 

A little dry weather would be fine. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM also shows lots of snow for Vancouver Island...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Full EPS run... takes us into December now.     Much drier than normal over the next 15 days again like previous runs.

 

Looks like a nightmare. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, North_County said:

I've been trying to save battery. I flipped the main breaker on Monday morning when it looked like I was going to get water in the house. Power was cut to town around that time anyway. No idea when we'll get it back. I've got nowhere dry to put the generator in the meantime.

Water a step-and-a-half from entering the house (it's in the garage), but hasn't risen for several hours now. I think i got lucky. From what I can tell, my neighborhood is probably the only one that was spared to this extent. Areas that were billed as "out of the floodplain" have water in them. Houses that have never even had floodwaters touch their yards....ever....have water in them and had to be evacuated. This is just absurd. I was finally able to see a picture of the business we own in town. It was dry in the largest flood of my lifetime in 1990, which was considered a 35-year-flood. There was violent, raging water easily 2 feet up the walls in the photo I saw, and I was told it got much worse later. By that standard, this is a what, 50-year flood? 100? My guess is the central business district is annihilated. I dont know what else to add.

D**n that sucks.  Glad that at least your house is ok.  As for your business, hopefully it can be replaced.  It's been a tough 1.5+ years for border town businesses, and this doesn't help at all.  One thing I will say about that part of the county is the "community" seems to be strong up there and folks really seem to rally to help one another out.  I doubt I can get up there until the waters recede and the roads are deemed safe, but if you need anything let me know.

[ShawniganLake]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Full EPS run... takes us into December now.     Much drier than normal over the next 15 days again like previous runs.

 

Flooding is still getting worse in the Fraser valley with new evacuations. And they are resuming the search for possible victims in numerous landslides. Looks boring but and absolute blessing. 
 

That snowstorm for Vancouver island on the NAM is probably just the nam being stupid. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Flooding is still getting worse in the Fraser valley with new evacuations. And they are resuming the search for possible victims in numerous landslides. Looks boring but and absolute blessing. 
 

That snowstorm for Vancouver island on the NAM is probably just the nam being stupid. 

Yeah... the real nightmare right now is what is going on up north.      Not a period of quieter weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the real nightmare right now is what is going on up north.      Not a period of quieter weather.

Pretty sure the nightmare in the Vancouver paper yesterday was COVID 19. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty sure the nightmare in the Vancouver paper yesterday was COVID 19. 

Very true.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Surprised how forested northern Arizona is. There are more trees around Flagstaff than I've seen through a lot of my trek so far. 

68 yesterday and low of 30 this morning at FLG. 

Gets quite a bit of snow in the winter, too. I think Flagstaff averages about 100"/year.

That the Southwest is not all desert tends to surprise a lot of people from outside the Southwest.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF snow maps are going to be annoying this winter if this is a real issue.   I have never seen it miss so badly with two consecutive storms.   And its not related to the storm track... but rather precip type and overestimating snow amounts.   Its going to be hard to trust anything it shows right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Gets quite a bit of snow in the winter, too. I think Flagstaff averages about 100"/year.

That the Southwest is not all desert tends to surprise a lot of people from outside the Southwest.

When we were in flagstaff around March 10,2019 all of their record breaking snow from late February had melted, however, it snowed about 6” while we were there. It was really very pleasant, the previous day had morning snow, but cleared out and had a high near 50.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

C-zone is still very active between Mt. Vernon and Everett right where the ECMWF showed it would be this morning.   So it can still pinpoint the c-zone location... but apparently does not do so well with precip type now.   Unless its snowing at Randy's house right now.

Had off and on flakes coming down, and had white dogs when I let them out but nothing sticking anywhere else. 37 degrees. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ventrice said recently the Nina was going to start to strengthen.  It is starting now in region 1+2.  This is the region just off the coast.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Brian_in_Leavenworth
Misspelling

[T-Town]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Gets quite a bit of snow in the winter, too. I think Flagstaff averages about 100"/year.

That the Southwest is not all desert tends to surprise a lot of people from outside the Southwest.

It’s an easy day trip from Phoenix to Flagstaff. The transition in climate and scenery is striking. 

[Kayla]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF snow maps are going to be annoying this winter if this is a real issue.   I have never seen it miss so badly with two consecutive storms.   And its not related to the storm track... but rather precip type and overestimating snow amounts.   Its going to be hard to trust anything it shows right now.

Kuchera seems to be working just fine. It's all I ever look at these days. 

Also a quick check of 925mb temps of 0 to +1 was never going to get the job done. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice said recently the Nona was going to start to strengthen.  It is starting now in region 1+2.  This is the region just off the coast.

7-day change map shows it quite clearly as well...

 

[Randyc321]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We have been around in some form for much longer than that.  I've been through three of four different incarnations and different owners / admins.  The core group has been around 20 to 22 years or something like that.

I started on the OFA forum.  Was that 2005 or '06?  I don't know.  Some of you were there but with different names I think.  I remember Atmospheric Wraith (DJ).  Who else?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

36 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I started on the OFA forum.  Was that 2005 or '06?  I don't know.  Some of you were there but with different names I think.  I remember Atmospheric Wraith (DJ).  Who else?

I was there. Jim and Brennan were there.  I was  Brian in Bellingham then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nourishing rains for California on the GFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM contains further blessings for early next week. 

[ShawniganLake]

Transportation of goods to and from Vancouver and the BC interior will be impacted for weeks if not months.  With winter coming I’m not even sure of the logistics of completing repairs to the Coquihalla hwy (an area that can see 20-30 feet of snow)

I just saw that hwy1 in the Fraser Canyon has sustained catastrophic damage. 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The GEM contains further blessings for early next week. 

Remember when you called out Josh for being silly?  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Transportation of goods to and from Vancouver and the BC interior will be impacted for weeks if not months.  With winter coming I’m not even sure of the logistics of completing repairs to the Coquihalla hwy (an area that can see 20-30 feet of snow)

I just saw that hwy1 in the Fraser Canyon has sustained catastrophic damage. 

 

Really tough year for Lytton.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Remember when you called out Josh for being silly?  

Of course. He was saying the AR last week would bust. It did not. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Of course. He was saying the AR last week would bust. It did not. 

Yeah... you are being silly right now too.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 38 this morning…coldest we’ve been since October 12th. Only the 4th low in the 30s this fall but maybe we will get down to freezing tomorrow morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 38 this morning…coldest we’ve been since October 12th. Only the 4th low in the 30s this fall but maybe we will get down to freezing tomorrow morning. 

Yeah... I think we are going to have our first hard freeze out here tonight.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I think we are going to have our first hard freeze out here tonight.

 

Probably 32-34 here. Nice turnaround from the last few days with 4 +60 high temps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The tea leaves for December, at least the first half of the month are not very promising. My hunch is things will start improving the 2nd half of the month. 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Requiem said:

My dream climate has honestly gotta be Boulder, Colorado. So much to love about the weather there imo. The roar of the chinooks, snow in winter, summer thunderstorms, spring blizzards, etc.

You’d love the dolly sods. One of the most dynamic climates in the world that nobody knows about.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolly_Sods_Wilderness

It’s so windy up there all the trees are flagged in one direction, and in some places they can’t grow at all. Regularly see gusts in the 70-100mph range in the winter. And frequent severe weather in the summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

15.99” of rain here since September 12th. Not a ton of rain on the models for now but the storm train could get going in the last few days of November and boost those numbers for the fall a bit. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you are being silly right now too.  

I think Andrew said he was only like 6” above average for rainfall this fall.  It’s a desperate situation down there in Oregon too