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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard that GM is no longer putting heated/cooled seats and steering wheel warmers in any of their truck models except for the highest Denali package due to the chip shortage. Glad I bought my SLT when I did! I could not live without my heated steering wheel…I would have been forced to spend 10k (or more now) more for the Denali! Crazy how much has changed since buying my truck in April 2020. Dealers had massive stock and you still have wiggle room for negotiations! 

Jesse stole all the chips.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't even have a vague idea of what crypto currency is.  I think it's basically just a make-believe number in a computer though.  Scary stuff in the big picture IMO.

There's huge money it it Jim.  But it's also high risk. A friend of mine bought 5k of this one called saitama and he cashed out 2 weeks ago when it spiked and profited over 1 million lol. Dude pd off his house and anything else that was high interest.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

6B2BFCC3-2DA6-40AD-A554-4589BA440682.thumb.jpeg.a8171efe9c5bafc5d59217eebd57cc01.jpeg

12F583A4-9682-403D-944C-D348D4DE26F8.thumb.jpeg.f49a14345251d7c519fbc1895de2a9f2.jpeg

ABD15519-1D1A-4203-964C-411CB7EF9FA7.thumb.jpeg.e9de8efd5b051ab99a0d510d82941b71.jpeg

3A3A3D6F-203D-44F0-A508-08F2767A4E13.thumb.jpeg.01862bed6f35ad6cb90adf52b95edbdf.jpeg

Hiked up Mt. Si this morning, got to the peak around dawn. Absolutely gorgeous and quite cold and snowy up at the top. Started at 40°F and got down to 28°F or so at the peak, with lots of fog along the way (got some ice accretion on my hair near the summit); pretty closely following the moist adiabat, which makes sense given PSCZ mixing and near constant fog along a ~3500’ ascent.

Yeah… but how’s your stock portfolio???

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Yikes. 12z gfs is a disaster too. Funny how all was well until this morning.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Google GM trucks stored in grass fields.  Gm has a surplus of trucks sitting in muddy fields waiting for chips. They don't run, they are getting moved with heavy equipment and getting trashed with mud. I guess some of them have been outside waiting since February. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There's huge money it it Jim.  But it's also high risk. A friend of mine bought 5k of this one called saitama and he cashed out 2 weeks ago when it spiked and profited over 1 million lol. Dude pd off his house and anything else that was high interest.  

I put $60 into Shiba a few weeks ago, but it was to late and I feel like a chump. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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46 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Many of you aren't car people but I share my pics anyway.  Newest addition to the family.  2021 hellcat challenger super stock. Beautiful color.  807hp from tha factory lol. If you drive it easy it'll get 20 mpg. Pretty impressive. 20211119_072558.thumb.jpg.3227de4c414dd5beb44e6efb373a1331.jpg

Sick. Can I have it? 😂

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34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Back in the day there were perfectly fine cars made without a single chip.  We have become way too dependent on that type of technology.

The only chip in my first car was installed in November 1996 when I didn’t negotiate a turn onto a snow covered road and scraped one of those green phone junction pedestals. Chipped the paint a little. 

B82E4916-D6DE-4DFF-BE3D-12937BF0F23A.jpeg

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As for weather...I think we're going to have to get through some more crap before the good stuff comes.  Still reason to believe it will happen by Dec 10 or so.

Gonna have to wait until mid-December at earliest, bro.

Believe me I’m looking under every stone for indicators of near term amplification and continental cold. I just can’t find anything right now. 😶🌫️

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17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not to late. Actually right now is a good time to buy. It'll go back up. 

#Hodl. #Diamond hands. There are actually some pretty big moves in some larger corporations towards taking Shiba as actually payment in the fairly near future 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-theatres-accept-shiba-inu-052824454.html

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Google GM trucks stored in grass fields.  Gm has a surplus of trucks sitting in muddy fields waiting for chips. They don't run, they are getting moved with heavy equipment and getting trashed with mud. I guess some of them have been outside waiting since February. 

I saw that…Just amazingly…Sad. I’m sure the field mice have had a field day with the wiring. Yet I’m sure they will still sell for $70k when they get chips put in finally. 

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Looks like we will probably tack on another 2 or 3 inches of rain or so before the month is over.  We certainly checked the wet / active November box on the checklist.

  • Rain 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Gonna have to wait until mid-December at earliest, bro.

Believe me I’m looking under every stone for indicators of near term amplification and continental cold. I just can’t find anything right now. 😶🌫️

We've had a lot of runs from various models showing the Pacific ridge and Aleutian block joining in early December.  Certainly possible they are rushing it a tad.  I imagine the possible coming MJO wave will give things a kick in the butt.  I'm just impatient.  I'm well aware that what happens in the early going in no way reflects how a Nina winter will ultimately turn out.  I'm still betting we at least get something solid in December though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We've all felt like a chump at one time or another my friend. 

Sadly any and all experiences I've had with investing have left me feeling chumpish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Google GM trucks stored in grass fields.  Gm has a surplus of trucks sitting in muddy fields waiting for chips. They don't run, they are getting moved with heavy equipment and getting trashed with mud. I guess some of them have been outside waiting since February. 

It's just amazing how the shock waves from COVID just keep reverberating through the economy.  We had better hope and pray we don't have another pandemic anytime soon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice morning... and on a weekend!

20211120_091349.jpg

I'm going to enjoy this crisp / dry weekend.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  It was freezing here for about 8 hours the other night, but nothing to write home about for sure.  Some Nina seasons are terrible early on and then go nuts.

Kind of an usual autumn out here as well. Especially for La Niña. More of an occluding southern storm track w/ the trough anomaly in the SE and relatively infrequent SW flow.

Somewhat reminiscent of both 2006 and 2007 (locally). Also reminds me of 2015, but obviously that’s not a seasonal analog. 😂

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The 12Z ECMWF is about as far as you can get from a GOA ridge at 240 hours... great news if you like 50-degree rain for days on end.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11 (8).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m sure in all likelihood Brian in Leavenworth, Tim, and Andrew are sitting pretty this winter unless we have a +EPO that puts 1999 to shame. And maybe even then.

I’d be nervous if I lived in a more borderline area, though.

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On the subject of investments.  For people looking to diversify you couldn't go wrong with platinum.  It's grossly undervalued right now, and has real value if things go sideways down the road.  Several years ago I told people who were interested in metals to buy palladium (which I didn't do, but that's for another discussion) and it went from 200 to 3000 an oz.  Right now palladium is much higher than platinum which is absurd from a scarcity / metal properties standpoint.

A consensus exists that platinum will at least triple over the next few years.  Just throwing it out there

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure in all likelihood Brian in Leavenworth, Tim, and Andrew are sitting pretty this winter unless we have a +EPO that puts 1999 to shame. And maybe even then.

I’d be nervous if I lived in a more borderline area, though.

Phil, there’s never been a PNW winter where us snow freaks that live in borderline areas (almost all of us) aren’t nervous. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This winter has the feel of lots of activity.  Good chance we'll have multiple chances for low elevation snow. 

 

 

 

I think we have a great shot this time.  The recent histrionics we've seen in the weather is typical of La Nina winters that really perform down the road.  We also have the Skagit River flood rule in effect.  It takes just the right pattern to make that thing seriously flood unlike other rivers that flood much more regularly.  That pattern seems to be a precursor to major cold down the road.  If it does get seriously cold I'm sure there are people on here who will say it's just a coincidence.  The truth is nobody will be able to prove one way or the other whether that's the case or not.  I just look for signs, and this is a big one.  Then of course there are many other much more traditional indicators this winter will deliver.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

6B2BFCC3-2DA6-40AD-A554-4589BA440682.thumb.jpeg.a8171efe9c5bafc5d59217eebd57cc01.jpeg

12F583A4-9682-403D-944C-D348D4DE26F8.thumb.jpeg.f49a14345251d7c519fbc1895de2a9f2.jpeg

ABD15519-1D1A-4203-964C-411CB7EF9FA7.thumb.jpeg.e9de8efd5b051ab99a0d510d82941b71.jpeg

3A3A3D6F-203D-44F0-A508-08F2767A4E13.thumb.jpeg.01862bed6f35ad6cb90adf52b95edbdf.jpeg

Hiked up Mt. Si this morning, got to the peak around dawn. Absolutely gorgeous and quite cold and snowy up at the top. Started at 40°F and got down to 28°F or so at the peak, with lots of fog along the way (got some ice accretion on my hair near the summit); pretty closely following the moist adiabat, which makes sense given PSCZ mixing and near constant fog along a ~3500’ ascent.

That’s on my list in a few weeks hopefully!  Did you use crampons near the top? 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Phil, there’s never been a PNW winter where us snow freaks that live in borderline areas (almost all of us) aren’t nervous. 

There is no question about that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to enjoy this crisp / dry weekend.

It might be dry... but not real crisp.    Calm and damp here with very little dewpoint suppression.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Phil, there’s never been a PNW winter where us snow freaks that live in borderline areas (almost all of us) aren’t nervous. 

Yeah pretty much every winter is like that. snows never fully guaranteed below 1000’ here…even during a La Niña that has all the signs of being great. I think if you added up all the winters with atleast 1” of snow it’d probably be ~70% of them roughly. There’s always good odds it’ll snow but there’s always a chance things will totally bust and we get nothing too. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we have a great shot this time.  The recent histrionics we've seen in the weather is typical of La Nina winters that really perform down the road.  We also have the Skagit River flood rule in effect.  It takes just the right pattern to make that thing seriously flood unlike other rivers that flood much more regularly.  That pattern seems to be a precursor to major cold down the road.  If it does get seriously cold I'm sure there are people on here who will say it's just a coincidence.  The truth is nobody will be able to prove one way or the other whether that's the case or not.  I just look for signs, and this is a big one.  Then of course there are many other much more traditional indicators this winter will deliver.

Skagit River rule? :rolleyes: 

How many of those floods occurred in the autumn vs the spring? And how many of those years featured analogous mean states and array(s) of pattern forcings with respect to time(of year)? Makes all the difference.

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Ironically, having Phil not on board should help lower the anxiety level a bit. If he can absolutely blow January 2018 such as he did, there’s no reason things can’t swing the other way.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Ironically, having Phil not on board should help lower the anxiety level a bit. If he can absolutely blow January 2018 such as he did, there’s no reason things can’t swing the other way.

Reverse psychology. I learned it from Tim.

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There’s been some really frustrating stretches of winter weather here from time to time…winters of 14-15 and 15-16 was a bad stretch. Only had 1/2” of snow total here from February 2014 to December 2016. Didn’t even see a single snowflake fall during the winter of 15-16. Things have been much better recently though every winter since 16-17 has delivered…5 years in a row with atleast 1” of snow. only “meh” one was 19-20 with 2” of snow total divided up between 3 separate events locally that all melted pretty quickly after falling. We’re probably due for a 2-3 year stretch of barely anything soon. I think this winter will be decent IMO but eventually the good times will end. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cottonwoods still clinging to some color here... unusually late.  

20211120_112101.jpg

20211120_111944.jpg

Jim will be in your neighborhood soon to pick the leaves off the trees to accelerate the winter transition. I’m sure he’s taken care of the Covington area already. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure in all likelihood Brian in Leavenworth, Tim, and Andrew are sitting pretty this winter unless we have a +EPO that puts 1999 to shame. And maybe even then.

I’d be nervous if I lived in a more borderline area, though.

Nothing to get nervous about here. We never have sub-freezing temps anymore so this is our normal pattern. Not even really thinking that much about cold or snow, which again, almost never occurs in this location. We are simply too far south and rapidly warming and drying. Stuff like 13-14 or 16-17 gets further in the rear view and will eventually be a very distant memory. 2-25-19 was a fluke and will likely not be repeated for a very long time.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Jim will be in your neighborhood soon to pick the leaves off the trees to accelerate the winter transition. I’m sure he’s taken care of the Covington area already. 

He might have a tough time with those trees!    Going to need a crane.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF still likes the idea of a general frosty night for King County in particular.  Temps are shown to go below 40 very early.  I think it's picking up on just a trickle of dry air flowing in from the passes.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah pretty much every winter is like that. snows never fully guaranteed below 1000’ here…even during a La Niña that has all the signs of being great. I think if you added up all the winters with atleast 1” of snow it’d probably be ~70% of them roughly. There’s always good odds it’ll snow but there’s always a chance things will totally bust and we get nothing too. 

We almost always get something.  There are very few winters with none.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Interesting being right on the edge of the inversion here in Corvallis. Walked to downtown and there was fog right over the river while the rest of Corvallis is sunny. Didn’t realize that fog was covering pretty much all of valley Linn, Lane, and Douglas counties until I looked at the satellite.

080E1C45-8EDE-48F3-BEDE-E1DF71808B4A.jpeg.5e48dd8f1da1feb6ef513567083f51a8.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We almost always get something.  There are very few winters with none.

We’ve had a couple total bust years but most of the time it works out just fine. Would be nice if we started getting more events in December and January though. Have had 17” in January and 25” in December compared to 61” of snow in February over the last 15 years. February has been so dominant with big time snow events like 2011, 2017, 2019 and 2021…while the only big events for December and January are December 2008 and January 2012. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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