PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SouthHillFrosty]

37 in Puyallup 

[snow_wizard]

Thursday certainly looks nippy right now.  The GFS is showing a lot of places only making about 40 on that day.  925mb temps drop to 0 or -1, so it could be close for getting some snowflakes.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS vs GEM. Canadian is a tad different and maybe a touch promising.

 

GFS

GEM

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Frosty here, but still 4˚C (40˚F) at YVR.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sharing this info. I can't even think of what to say it is becoming a tragedy on a scope and magnitude I can't comprehend.

Yikes!  I was just thinking earlier how much worse this could have been if everything had been shifted south 100 miles.  Many more highly populated areas would have been effected.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS vs GEM. Canadian is a tad different and maybe a touch promising.

 

GFS

GEM

 

I think one of the earlier GFS runs was more like the 0z GEM.  Nice looking setup actually.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yikes!  I was just thinking earlier how much worse this could have been if everything had been shifted south 100 miles.  Many more highly populated areas would have been effected.

Thankful we didn’t get hit. I think we have seen enough rain. Bring on the snow!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1 C'mon Block!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

To repeat what I posted on the Canadian forum: Sumas Prairie flooding like this shouldn’t be a super-big surprise… it used to be Sumas Lake before the Vedder Canal and the Sumas Drainage Canal were dug to drain it. Due to those canals getting overwhelmed, Sumas Lake is simply making a temporary comeback.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

To repeat what I posted on the Canadian forum: Sumas Prairie flooding like this shouldn’t be a super-big surprise… it used to be Sumas Lake before the Vedder Canal and the Sumas Drainage Canal were dug to drain it. Due to those canals getting overwhelmed, Sumas Lake is simply making a temporary comeback.

I really hope it won't be a super-big deal.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

To repeat what I posted on the Canadian forum: Sumas Prairie flooding like this shouldn’t be a super-big surprise… it used to be Sumas Lake before the Vedder Canal and the Sumas Drainage Canal were dug to drain it. Due to those canals getting overwhelmed, Sumas Lake is simply making a temporary comeback.

It was probably inevitable to happen at some point in that case.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Thankful we didn’t get hit. I think we have seen enough rain. Bring on the snow!!

I think we've checked all of the boxes necessary to give us a lot of extra aces in the deck for this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive to think it's about 30 degrees colder than two nights ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Pretty impressive to think it's about 30 degrees colder than two nights ago.

That's nothing compared to what can happen in 24 hours in Denver.

[snow_wizard]

I'm hoping we see something like December 1924 this winter.  A huge baroclinic band that switched from heavy rain to heavy snow with plummeting temperatures.  It's pretty common for cold air to dam up along the north side of those bands.  We've already seen an AR way south of us this season.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That's nothing compared to what can happen in 24 hours in Denver.

I know, but this is a different type of climate.

[Gradient Keeper]

Rainfall totals ending 4 PM Friday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hoping we see something like December 1924 this winter.  A huge baroclinic band that switched from heavy rain to heavy snow with plummeting temperatures.  It's pretty common for cold air to dam up along the north side of those bands.  We've already seen an AR way south of us this season.

1924 or 1919, I know it snowed 24”

in Salem with the 1919 blast. I know the 1924 one was pretty legendary too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31.8, finally got a freeze.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Latest SSTs
Nino 3.4: -0.855
Nino 3: -1.083
Nino 4: -0.573
Nino 1+2: -1.647

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hoping we see something like December 1924 this winter.  A huge baroclinic band that switched from heavy rain to heavy snow with plummeting temperatures.  It's pretty common for cold air to dam up along the north side of those bands.  We've already seen an AR way south of us this season.

I believe that Sumas lake was drained in 1924 and now it’s reforming. Very viable analog. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Rainfall totals ending 4 PM Friday

I'm in the gray zone on a rain map! Yay!

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

To repeat what I posted on the Canadian forum: Sumas Prairie flooding like this shouldn’t be a super-big surprise… it used to be Sumas Lake before the Vedder Canal and the Sumas Drainage Canal were dug to drain it. Due to those canals getting overwhelmed, Sumas Lake is simply making a temporary comeback.

I guess you could say that about nearly every river in the PNW.  Most have some sort of dyke for flood control and many of them have houses and infrastructure built in their floodplain

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Both tonight's 00z GEFS, 00z CMCE show a fairly big pattern change and perhaps a bit promising for blocking. C'MON!!!!

North Pacific and North America view

GEFS

CMCE

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO

Day 7

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Both tonight's 00z GEFS, 00z CMCE show a fairly big pattern change and perhaps a bit promising for blocking. C'MON!!!!

North Pacific and North America view

GEFS

CMCE

GEFS has been showing this the last couple of days.  The long range GEFS has as well.  And the 46 day ECMWF has too.  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEFS has been showing this the last couple of days.  The long range GEFS has as well.  And the 46 day ECMWF has too.  

Yeah the latest weeklies Week 4 looks excellent. Here we go !

00z ECMWF in 23 hours 5 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Deweydog]

MASSIVE ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT season is about to get underway!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

MASSIVE ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT season is about to get underway!!!

No question about it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F. Second freeze of the season.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 32F. Second freeze of the season.

Here we go!

6z GFS in 2 hours 15 minutes