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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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21 minutes ago, T-Town said:

No. Before that I had a 1967 Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser station wagon. Also with bald tires. That was a luxury automobile in its day, but it’s day had passed by the time I owned it. It did surprisingly well in the snow. It also leaked so that when it got cold there would be ice on the floor in the back seat. Good times. 

I call those cars "ditch magnets". The Fury may have been an upgrade.

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11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I call those cars "ditch magnets". The Fury may have been an upgrade.

They were both heaps, the Fury was even more unreliable. Towards the end it would leak a quart of power steering fluid between Tacoma and Seattle so I would have to park with no power steering and then refill it for the drive home. I ended up abandoning it. But it was kind of a right of passage to have a piece of crap car as a young person. Also glad to have moved past that stage. 

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59 minutes ago, T-Town said:

They were both heaps, the Fury was even more unreliable. Towards the end it would leak a quart of power steering fluid between Tacoma and Seattle so I would have to park with no power steering and then refill it for the drive home. I ended up abandoning it. But it was kind of a right of passage to have a piece of crap car as a young person. Also glad to have moved past that stage. 

My first car/truck was a 1975 Chevy ElCamino and I got my license in late November 1992, I learned real quick that a rear wheel drive with no weight in the back equals zero traction! Nothing like doing about 3 360’s while hitting black ice around a slight corner…Luckily it stayed on the road and no cars were coming! 

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1 hour ago, snow drift said:

-QBO seems to lead to mostly zonal winters like 07-08, 05-06, and similar years. +QBO winters tend to be better for us.

Well, I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say -QBO (esp towards tail of easterly shear) decreases seasonal/subseasonal predictability in La Niña/-ENSO base states, for a multitude of reasons.

In many cases, yes, it makes it more difficult to amplify NPAC/Aleutian High, such as 2007/08, 1974/75. But under certain conditions it can also open conduits to even more amplification into -EPO/-NPO via Eurasia/NATL and NW-Pacific, see 1970/71, 1984/85, etc.

Niña/+QBO is generally more predictable, and more reliable for the PNW. But some of the craziest, most tricked-out Niña patterns occur under -QBO. It’s just less stable/reliable, and easier to screw up.

And when it does fail, it’s usually via the hyper zonal/+EPO route, as opposed to stagnant ridging.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My first car/truck was a 1975 Chevy ElCamino and I got my license in late November 1992, I learned real quick that a rear wheel drive with no weight in the back equals zero traction! Nothing like doing about 3 360’s while hitting black ice around a slight corner…Luckily it stayed on the road and no cars were coming! 

More donuts than your local Krispy Kreme

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Nice trough at the end of the GFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say -QBO (esp towards tail of easterly shear) decreases seasonal/subseasonal predictability in La Niña/-ENSO base states, for a multitude of reasons.

In many cases, yes, it makes it more difficult to amplify NPAC/Aleutian High, such as 2007/08, 1974/75. But under certain conditions it can also open conduits to even more amplification into -EPO/-NPO via Eurasia/NATL and NW-Pacific, see 1970/71, 1984/85, etc.

Niña/+QBO is generally more predictable, and more reliable for the PNW. But some of the craziest, most tricked-out Niña patterns occur under -QBO. It’s just less stable/reliable, and easier to screw up.

And when it does fail, it’s usually via the hyper zonal/+EPO route, as opposed to stagnant ridging.

There is Jim's 1970-71 analog! Oregon Department of Agriculture is using that one too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say -QBO (esp towards tail of easterly shear) decreases seasonal/subseasonal predictability in La Niña/-ENSO base states, for a multitude of reasons.

In many cases, yes, it makes it more difficult to amplify NPAC/Aleutian High, such as 2007/08, 1974/75. But under certain conditions it can also open conduits to even more amplification into -EPO/-NPO via Eurasia/NATL and NW-Pacific, see 1970/71, 1984/85, etc.

Niña/+QBO is generally more predictable, and more reliable for the PNW. But some of the craziest, most tricked-out Niña patterns occur under -QBO. It’s just less stable/reliable, and easier to screw up.

And when it does fail, it’s usually via the hyper zonal/+EPO route, as opposed to stagnant ridging.

84-85, 07-08, and 74-75 were all really snowy here. 

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But yes, I think it is worth noting the closest match to the NPAC/WHEM pattern over the last 6 weeks is, indeed, 2007/08.

Perhaps a bit less extreme/more canonical, but it’s very close. An attempted re-run of that regime could easily produce a warmer outcome in the PNW, though.

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Congrats bro!

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Welcome the weather world fam🌏🌍

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9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Awww what a blessing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Has he mentioned anything about any upcoming SSW’s?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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18 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Congrats!  As far as anything to look forward to in the coming weeks....for you my friend...no sleep.  Looks like you'll be a fine addition to the night shift.  You just gotta figure out how to hold the little guy with a bottle in his mouth with one hand while running the mouse/keyboard with the other.  With a little work you can shift his sleep/wake cycle to the timing of the model runs!  😆

 

Glad to hear he is doing well, hopefully Mom is also doing well!

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36 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Congrats! Make sure he doesn't gain too much information from conference calls.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Well, I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say -QBO (esp towards tail of easterly shear) decreases seasonal/subseasonal predictability in La Niña/-ENSO base states, for a multitude of reasons.

In many cases, yes, it makes it more difficult to amplify NPAC/Aleutian High, such as 2007/08, 1974/75. But under certain conditions it can also open conduits to even more amplification into -EPO/-NPO via Eurasia/NATL and NW-Pacific, see 1970/71, 1984/85, etc.

Niña/+QBO is generally more predictable, and more reliable for the PNW. But some of the craziest, most tricked-out Niña patterns occur under -QBO. It’s just less stable/reliable, and easier to screw up.

And when it does fail, it’s usually via the hyper zonal/+EPO route, as opposed to stagnant ridging.

I've heard that a -QBO can increase the chances for SSW events, and those can deliver some of the longest cold and snowy patterns in the PNW. If this is the case, then that would be a situation where the PNW could have an epic winter under a Nina/-QBO state. But as you said, its a lot easier to amplify the N Pacific ridge under Nina/+QBO so a SSW would be less of a necessity under such a combo.

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58 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster.

I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well!

Anything to look forward to in the coming weeks?

20211103_114230.jpg

Congratulations, and welcome to the Night Shift!

night2.jpg.d30eb2caa1fdc2ed7092e04c76e49

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Last 60 of the year?  

Screenshot_20211103-124046_Chrome.jpg

I think we will probably get atleast one more 60 this month. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Still some pretty decent colors here in Tacoma but lots of the trees are getting to the half bare point. Probably will be a lot more bare after the breezy conditions expected tomorrow. Nice day though 55 and cloudy. 

9FB53BC8-8EC8-4694-9A9C-6A87B78446AB.jpeg

0DFF2BF7-E23A-4B62-97B8-E99C39666BD3.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still some pretty decent colors here in Tacoma but lots of the trees are getting to the half bare point. Probably will be a lot more bare after the breezy conditions expected tomorrow. Nice day though 55 and cloudy. 

9FB53BC8-8EC8-4694-9A9C-6A87B78446AB.jpeg

0DFF2BF7-E23A-4B62-97B8-E99C39666BD3.jpeg

Poor trees are all naked here.

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Springfield now up to 64F. Very warm day.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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One of the best snow cars I ever had was the 1970 Dodge Polara station wagon I had in college. A big old “lead sled” of a rustbucket, but its 383 V8 hauled *ss. Great fun to get the stink eye from people in much newer, better looking cars as I zoomed past them up the mountain passes at full highway speed in it. It had a good set of snow tires on it, and its mass meant great momentum for breaking through drifts. It was almost unstoppable in that regard.

My apologies if I’ve related the story before, but I schemed long and hard to get my parents to give it to me. While a sophomore in high school, I said to my self: “Self, the old green car looks like crap but it runs great. Ask your parents if they will let you have it when you go off to college. They will probably agree because they do not believe it will still be running then.” So I did. After the gales of laughter (“He actually thinks that old heap will still be running in three years!”), they reassured me that if they still had the green car, and it still ran, then of course they would let have it when I went off to college.

When the day arrived, “We weren’t being serious when we said that.” But I pressed the issue, and got the car.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One of the best snow cars I ever had was the 1970 Dodge Polara station wagon I had in college. A big old “lead sled” of a rustbucket, but its 383 V8 hauled *ss. Great fun to get the stink eye from people in much newer, better looking cars as I zoomed past them up the mountain passes at full highway speed in it. It had a good set of snow tires on it, and its mass meant great momentum for breaking through drifts. It was almost unstoppable in that regard.

My apologies if I’ve related the story before, but I schemed long and hard to get my parents to give it to me. While a sophomore in high school, I said to my self: “Self, the old green car looks like crap but it runs great. Ask your parents if they will let you have it when you go off to college. They will probably agree because they do not believe it will still be running then.” So I did. After the gales of laughter (“He actually thinks that old heap will still be running in three years!”), they reassured me that if they still had the green car, and it still ran, then of course they would let have it when I went off to college.

When the day arrived, “We weren’t being serious when we said that.” But I pressed the issue, and got the car.

383 like the Road Runner

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31 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Our hands look like this in November so our hands can look blue in December

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1635940800-1636459200-1636804800-10.gif

I think a lot of you are going to be disappointed with December. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

i'll bet you 50 bucks that i'm not disappointed for a single minute in the entire month of December

 

I take it you will be spending the month in TWISP. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Week-2 12z EPS is Tim-errific.

Ehhh... probably still wet.   But it might be amplified enough in reality (as opposed to a blended mean) to shut off the rain.    Trough becomes centered in the East.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-7236800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I did predict a warm/dryish November... Seems like that is a LOCK. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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