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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I like snow. If it’s not gonna snow, sunny and 75 works for me. 

I like sustained cold.  It's especially great when there is snow on the ground to preserve.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

It's coming. By my estimation we are at about 2 days out now from the models beginning to show a big pattern change.

MBG Money Back Guarantee(c)Rob 2014?

It usually happens within 6 weeks of the type of pattern we just got out of.  Sometimes much fast than that.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I like sustained cold.  It's especially great when there is snow on the ground to preserve.

It is flat out magical to me when its cold enough to keep snow persisting for over 2 weeks on the ground. December 2008, January 2004. I'm trying to remember any other times....

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I want snow on the ground from mid to late November to the end of February. Is that too much to ask?

Edmonton would be nice.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Edmonton would be nice.

Northern MN and WI have snow on the ground almost all winter... often in the Twin Cities as well but not quite as consistent there.    Obviously the UP of Michigan is just about guaranteed to have snow on the ground that entire period.   And usually well into April.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I want snow on the ground from mid to late November to the end of February. Is that too much to ask?

The main draw of this forum for me is that a bunch of you guys know a ton about weather AND you want it snow as much or more than I do. So you analyze the models, indices, etc looking for any indication we might see snow. Some subjectivity creeps into the analysis at times, but if I want objectivity I can go read the nws afd. 😀

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47/30. Pleasant negative temp departure day. It was actually colder here than at the airport for a change.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I want snow on the ground from mid to late November to the end of February. Is that too much to ask?

Sooo Bozeman!?🤗 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A dp of 19 at SEA.  This air mass must have gotten a bit more continental than I thought.

dp of 6 here with an air temp of 17 currently. Chilly but pretty run of the mill type airmass for this time of year.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

A dp of 19 at SEA.  This air mass must have gotten a bit more continental than I thought.

Interestingly the DP is 34 in Everett.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I had snow on the ground for 43 days in 2019! 

Here too!   Actually... it became a solid layer of cement for the last 3 weeks of the period.   You could literally walk across the top of 2 feet of snow on the ground without breaking through... never seen anything quite like that.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

44/29 on the day. 
Currently 39.

.01” on the day, 10.23” for the month. 

.01?   Was that melted frost?   

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

.01?   Was that melted frost?   

 

I’m assuming it was, the frost was extremely thick this morning. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The ECMWF is pretty chilly for the next several days.  Looks like more frost this weekend.  I'm not liking the chances for lowland snow tomorrow in spite of the very dry / cool air that's in place.  A few flakes can't be ruled out in favored locations though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

BLI is currently +4.22 for the year, so he would be disappointed and griping about a general lack of rain even if he lived there… LOL. Set impossibly high standards and you will be disappointed virtually all the time.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

It is flat out magical to me when its cold enough to keep snow persisting for over 2 weeks on the ground. December 2008, January 2004. I'm trying to remember any other times....

The two times I remember Silverton having persistent snow cover for over two weeks were January 2017 and January 1993. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Sooo Bozeman!?🤗 

Yes! Fun side story. We almost moved to Bozeman when I was a kid. Family friends of ours moved there. We visited twice and were sold on it, but the bindery job for my Father didn't pan out. One visit there was a severe t-storm and I remember the guy told us you don't want to go outside in our storms and not shortly after lightning hit a chimney across the street.

00z GFS in 45 minutes

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That may have been another.

Down here we had a big snow event on New Year’s Day. Up at my house we had about 8” the morning of New Years, silverton got 4-5” that evening with a very narrow band of snow that set up as the colder air moved in. It was pretty wild. I had dropped my pregnant wife off at work in Mt Angel (about 4 miles north of Silverton), no snow in silverton. When I went back to pick her up around 10p, 5” of snow had fallen in silverton. Mt. Angel only had a dusting. That band also completely missed us up here or we would have been totally buried that day. 
 

But given my wife is pregnant again this winter it might be a good sign. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm not seeing anything in the models showing a arctic blast.  Usually it shows up after these types of AR events.  Jim, you say six weeks or so?  That seems like a long time.  Some co-workers today were discussing this issue and it seems like it is usually much sooner.

Dang.  We are almost out to the first week of December now in the models and we aren't seeing the goodies.

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3 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I'm not seeing anything in the models showing a arctic blast.  Usually it shows up after these types of AR events.  Jim, you say six weeks or so?  That seems like a long time.  Some co-workers today were discussing this issue and it seems like it is usually much sooner.

Dang.  We are almost out to the first week of December now in the models and we aren't seeing the goodies.

Yeah, but all of December is still in clown range and clown range cuts both ways.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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13 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I'm not seeing anything in the models showing a arctic blast.  Usually it shows up after these types of AR events.  Jim, you say six weeks or so?  That seems like a long time.  Some co-workers today were discussing this issue and it seems like it is usually much sooner.

Dang.  We are almost out to the first week of December now in the models and we aren't seeing the goodies.

December 7th. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yes! Fun side story. We almost moved to Bozeman when I was a kid. Family friends of ours moved there. We visited twice and were sold on it, but the bindery job for my Father didn't pan out. One visit there was a severe t-storm and I remember the guy told us you don't want to go outside in our storms and not shortly after lightning hit a chimney across the street.

00z GFS in 45 minutes

Oh that is a fun story! Too bad you guys didn't make the move back then, your home value would be worth about 20 times more today compared to then! We just refinanced and our appraisal came through more than double what we built the house for just four years ago. It's crazy here. 

We do get a lot of severe storms and a whole lotta lightning. Not really my thing but I do like a good shelf cloud!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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47 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That sounds like heaven to me, and then add the scenery and world class trout fishing and yep!

Yep, the secret is out! 😜

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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