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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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54 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

BLI is currently +4.22 for the year, so he would be disappointed and griping about a general lack of rain even if he lived there… LOL. Set impossibly high standards and you will be disappointed virtually all the time.

I would be a lot less disappointed if the models didn’t constantly overpromise and underdeliver. I know… fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 75 times, shame on me. It really is remarkable though.
 

I would estimate that we bust >90% of the time on QPF. By bust, I mean that the actual amount is <75% of the forecasted amount within 3 days. Don’t get me started on 5, 7, 10 days out. Might as well start by dividing by at least 3 or 4. 
 

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00z is significantly wetter for Seattle tomorrow afternoon/night. Gives us about an inch of QPF with well more than that for the South Sound.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

From a 401k point a view I always want more! 💰 

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26 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z is significantly wetter for Seattle tomorrow afternoon/night. Gives us about an inch of QPF with well more than that for the South Sound.

Would've been a great snow storm with colder air in place. Still might be a few surprises with it. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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If this was a month later the chances are pretty good we would be looking at snow tomorrow given the track of the low and the precip intensity being shown.  As it is tomorrow certainly looks like a chilly day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

47/29 and currently 36* 

Enjoyable day in the yard cleaning up leaves and finishing off with a relaxing walk enjoying the fascinating clouds preceding tomorrow’s storm 

07BD8B02-57E3-432B-B4BA-10FC597262E2.jpeg

Should be a painting. How was the wind?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Really interesting pattern being shown after day 10.  Extremely deep trough with a low tracking south of Seattle.  Loving the west based -NAO showing up on some runs now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I have a really good feeling the way the models are shaping up for weeks 2 and 3.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yes! Fun side story. We almost moved to Bozeman when I was a kid. Family friends of ours moved there. We visited twice and were sold on it, but the bindery job for my Father didn't pan out. One visit there was a severe t-storm and I remember the guy told us you don't want to go outside in our storms and not shortly after lightning hit a chimney across the street.

00z GFS in 45 minutes

You all will be shocked, but I think my ideal climate would be Vancouver, Victoria, and convergence zone around Sno-King line. I grew up in a warm (or cool) summer  Csb Mediterranean climate when the weather was always 70F and sunny in the summer and 45-55F in Winter. Rain only from late Oct-April. Very boring but with fog.  Even my college town in a Csa climate at least had frosts and t-storms on occasion. The overcast weather of Seattle made me feel at home. I really like Oceanic climates though ones less extreme than found directly on the coast such as Cannon Beach. Oceanic climates are cool enough that snow does happen and you do get at least three seasons with lesser fire risk in an average year. Oceanic climates are also better than my current semi-arid climate which is brutal when you get those 20 degree days that make your hands dry out.

 

I simply don't understand why Oceanic climates don't get more love from the general population. I love them. I understand it here because the marine influence makes snow less frequent, but you get a great mix of everything. A Minnesota winter is too cold and snowy for me, but my old climate bores me too much. I would hate a humid subtropical climate the most of all though. Seattle in a normal year gets just enough rain to be interesting but not too much. Note I said normally. You all have too much at the moment.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Thanks!   Winds were from the North today 10-15 mph…..quieted down around 4pm but water was still a little agitated.  

I'm really liking how the models have been advertising more north wind days coming up.  Many times that is just as important as 850s in determining how chilly it's going to be during the cold season here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You all will be shocked, but I think my ideal climate would be Vancouver, Victoria, and convergence zone around Sno-King line. I grew up in a warm (or cool) summer  Csb Mediterranean climate when the weather was always 70F and sunny in the summer and 45-55F in Winter. Rain only from late Oct-April. Very boring but with fog.  Even my college town in a Csa climate at least had frosts and t-storms on occasion. The overcast weather of Seattle made me feel at home. I really like Oceanic climates though ones less extreme than found directly on the coast such as Cannon Beach. Oceanic climates are cool enough that snow does happen and you do get at least three seasons with lesser fire risk in an average year. Oceanic climates are also better than my current semi-arid climate which is brutal when you get those 20 degree days that make your hands dry out.

 

I simply don't understand why Oceanic climates don't get more love from the general population. I love them. I understand it here because the marine influence makes snow less frequent, but you get a great mix of everything. A Minnesota winter is too cold and snowy for me, but my old climate bores me too much. I would hate a humid subtropical climate the most of all though. Seattle in a normal year gets just enough rain to be interesting but not too much. Note I said normally. You all have too much at the moment.

This climate is ok some years.  Once in a while we get into a cold regime which can bring decently snowy winters and lots of active weather.  On the other hand we can get a run of 2 or 3 years that is just insufferably boring.

images (7).jpeg

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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