PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TT-SEA]

WB maps for the 00Z ECMWF run are coming in very slowly... only up to 55 hours and it should be at 192 hours by now.  

[Deweydog]

If tomorrow’s system happened a month from now there would only be SEVEN SHOPPING DAYS UNTIL XMAS!

[TT-SEA]

Back to wet and warm on the 00Z ECMWF in the 7-10 day period.    

Fortunately it does not show any AR plumes remaining parked over WA or BC... at least not yet.     Although its certainly the type of pattern which is ripe for that to happen.

[snow_wizard]

Apparently the ECMWF run got screwed up.  

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Apparently the ECMWF run got screwed up.  

From this point forward ANY run that doesn’t show us descending into Arctic oblivion from day 12 onward is screwed up.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Back to wet and warm on the 00Z ECMWF in the 7-10 day period.    

Fortunately it does not show any AR plumes remaining parked over WA or BC... at least not yet.     Although its certainly the type of pattern which is ripe for that to happen.

I had to go to Pivotal to find a place that had the run completed.  The end sucks balls alright.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

From this point forward ANY run that doesn’t show us descending into Arctic oblivion from day 12 onward is screwed up.

I meant it got stuck at day 4 on two sites that I use.

[snow_wizard]

It is interesting to note as lousy as the ECMWF is for week two over the Pacific it has the same west based -NAO the GFS is showing.  That could easily cause a train wreck over the Pacific on pretty short notice.

[ShawniganLake]

Cloudy and 32F here still.
 

Canadian Ensemble. I’m sure someone could extrapolate something good out of this. 

 

[TT-SEA]

48 here this morning... looks like precip should hold off until around 3 or 4 this afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was pretty wet!

[LowerGarfield]

42F outside per spouse

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Cloudy and 32F here still.
 

Canadian Ensemble. I’m sure someone could extrapolate something good out of this. 

 

It's art.  That blob of red NE of the Caribbean is kinda shaped like Australia.  And that's kind of an interesting shape along the bottom of the red blob over the west coast.  And that shape over the North Atlantic kinda looks like an early stage embryo.

 

 

Currently 38 and overcast after a low of 35.  I think we managed 43 as a high for yesterday.

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48/30 here yesterday. Currently drizzling and 41.

[MossMan]

Cue the Jaws music…

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Snow falling along the east side of Vancouver island this morning. Moisture is north of here and it’s mostly dry here for now

 

 

[MossMan]

Had a low of 38.

Currently 38 and cloudy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That weak system early next week goes south into California on this run. 

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

48 here this morning... looks like precip should hold off until around 3 or 4 this afternoon. 

HRRR agrees  

Dry daylight hours to work in the yard again…..it needs it! 
 

39* 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is actually fairly dry over the next 7-10 days. Not totally dry, but plenty of breaks and weak systems. Around day 9-10 things get cooking. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Lots of QPF going poof in one run.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Lots of QPF going poof in one run.

 

 

I will be cheering for you to get your first rain drops of the fall season... its going happen this time! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I will be cheering for you to get your first rain drops of the fall season... its going happen this time! 

We can't have a 95-96 water year every year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at Salem (calendar year), they went from 1987-1994 with 8 consecutive drier than normal years. Right now they are sitting around normal for the calendar year, a wet December will give them an above average calendar year. As recently as 2014-2017 we had 4 consecutive wet years... 

Incredibly October 2016 was SLE's wettest October on record, February 2017 was their wettest February on record. Going back a couple years, December 2015 was their wettest on record, and September 2013 absolutely blew away the record for wettest September, even if 2013 did set the record for their driest calendar year on record. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This storm is taking a beautiful track for snow in western Washington.  What a shame there isn't colder air in place. It's rare for a low pressure system to take this route.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The evolution on the 12z GFS is a thing of beauty for those hoping we start to see snow pack building. 

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The evolution on the 12z GFS is a thing of beauty for those hoping we start to see snow pack building. 

Would be incredible for my area. Unfortunately the GFS is on it's own with that solution. Hopefully the other models come around. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is pure pornography...

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is pure pornography...

Except for my brother who will be playing golf at Bandon Dunes then. Haha. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Except for my brother who will be playing golf at Bandon Dunes then. Haha. 

Play golf in the PNW in December and you should expect to get wet.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 40 this morning. Last nights euro run was pretty wet…morning gfs not as much. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Play golf in the PNW in December and you should expect to get wet.  

True. It can get weirdly warm on the southern coast of Oregon in the winter. Of course, one should not expect that to happen and should expect wind, rain, cool, and grey.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Play golf in the PNW in December and you should expect to get wet.  

It's interesting there is such an elite golf course in Coos County. Bandon is nice, but 95% of that county is poverty stricken. My brother lives down there and makes it sound like he feels like he's living in a Walking Dead episode. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

True. It can get weirdly warm on the southern coast of Oregon in the winter. Of course, one should not expect that to happen and should expect wind, rain, cool, and grey.

As mentioned my brother lives down there, in Coquille, about 10-15 miles up the Coquille River. It's a pretty major banana belt. Because they are inland they do get a lot of frost (He had a freeze in October this year even.), and with cold airmasses they can see lows dip into the teens. However, during the day temps usually recover really well, and they get a lot of sunny days in the 50s and 60s in the winter. They are also right off the coastal fog belt, so in the summer they are usually sunny when Coos Bay is socked in, but close enough to the ocean it rarely gets hot. He has a great garden that he keeps going year round. 

[TT-SEA]

Slight shift south on the 12Z ECMWF... you might get lucky this time Josh.

[TT-SEA]

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks wet here through tomorrow but the weekend looks decent. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a little over 1/2" here. Can't complain. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Slight shift south on the 12Z ECMWF... you might get lucky this time Josh.

Meh. It's all about the mesoscale models at this point. Like I said, I'm over it. Sticking with my .25'' prediction for PDX.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks wet here through tomorrow but the weekend looks decent. 

Tomorrow should be almost totally dry as well. All that rain falls between about Noon today and 4 AM tomorrow.