PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Meh. It's all about the mesoscale models at this point. Like I said, I'm over it. Sticking with my .25'' prediction for PDX.

ECMWF is very good at precip amounts overall... better than the WRF in most cases.

[GobBluth]

Looking unlikely to dislodge the Alaska vortex until at least the second week of December.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Tomorrow should be almost totally dry as well. All that rain falls between about Noon today and 4 AM tomorrow.

Precip keeps going well into Saturday morning for Randy though...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looking unlikely to dislodge the Alaska vortex until at least the second week of December.

End of December IMO. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looking unlikely to dislodge the Alaska vortex until at least the second week of December.

Pretty sure that thing was stuck up there in 1933-34 for the whole winter.

Probly our new normal too. So boring.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Tomorrow should be almost totally dry as well. All that rain falls between about Noon today and 4 AM tomorrow.

Oh sweet that’s cool. Thought it was supposed to rain and be showery til afternoon based on the euro but I always get confused on the timing of systems. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh sweet that’s cool. Thought it was supposed to rain and be showery til afternoon based on the euro but I always get confused on the timing of systems. 

It probably will end up being so for Randy and maybe even Tim but we should stay dry most places.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Pretty sure that thing was stuck up there in 1933-34 for the whole winter.

Probly our new normal too. So boring.

Always good to see Alaska get cold. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has also been trending slower and farther south with the Monday system... looks like that might be a bonus dry day for the Seattle area.      

12Z ECMWF does not show any precip for Seattle from 6 a.m. tomorrow morning through Monday night. 

[TT-SEA]

That weak system finally makes it inland by Tuesday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF, but its not much and that could end up being another dry day for Seattle.

 

[Deweydog]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That weak system finally makes it inland by Tuesday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF, but its not much and that could end up being another dry day for Seattle.

 

[Kayla]

59 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looking unlikely to dislodge the Alaska vortex until at least the second week of December.

12z GFS ensemble disagrees.

[Kayla]

Friendly neighborhood reminder that today is November 18th.

[Deweydog]

25 years ago today it SNOWED!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Friendly reminder, r2d2 is a robot. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GFS ensemble disagrees.

Wow, we'll call that the PNW Vortex!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

25 years ago today it SNOWED!

That was one hell of a rain event too. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was one hell of a rain event too. 

Joshua will be quick to point out that ALL models trended drier during the homestretch for that event.

[RentonHill]

GEFS has been very locked in on this upcoming pattern for last several days of runs. Interesting that EPS doesnt show the same breakdown and keeps everything in place through end of the run. 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours...

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Hour 240 of the Canadian shows a big ridge over us, GFS shows a big trough, and the Euro seems to be in the middle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO has been struggling badly for a couple years now. 

[Deweydog]

That pattern could be a tough egg to crack.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours...

 

12Z EPS at day 10 looks fairly similar to the operational run... and FWIW so does the control run.

 

[bainbridgekid]

42 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

25 years ago today it SNOWED!

Had a really fun snow event in Bellingham in 2010 on this day too. 4" of snow from a tiny little stationary snow shower along the arctic boundary with temps falling into the upper 20's. That will always be special to me because it was my first arctic front in Bellingham and I'd been looking forward to experiencing that when I went to WWU.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS shows western Alaska cold after day 10... that is a fairly strong signal for 288 hours.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Had a really fun snow event in Bellingham in 2010 on this day too. 4" of snow from a tiny little stationary snow shower along the arctic boundary with temps falling into the upper 20's.

This was 11/23/2010... just 5 days later.

 

[TT-SEA]

Full 12Z EPS run... that AL pattern does break down as we get into early December.    I think extrapolation is in order!  

 

[Kayla]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Full 12Z EPS run... that AL pattern does break down as we get into early December.    I think extrapolation is in order!  

 

Moving more in line with the GEFS now as well.

[bainbridgekid]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was 11/23/2010... just 5 days later.

 

11/22/10 was the most intense arctic front I've ever experienced. 60 mph North winds on Bainbridge knocked out power and we had 4" of blowing/drifting snow with temps falling into the low 20's. It was wild.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 2010 had a pretty defined arctic boundary even down here. Not much moisture though, only about 1" of snow in Silverton, and we did very well compared to most of the Willamette Valley. Up here by the falls it was a decent event, about 6-8". 

[Omegaraptor]

Mt Bachelor has delayed opening to December 3 due to lack of snowfall.

If we get to December 3 and there’s still no sign of a good mountain snow pattern in the believable range then I think it’s time to start worrying. But for now let’s just wait and see. We all know about Novembers like this in Niña years. Better to get this out of the way now and get the goods at the coldest time of year.

[ShawniganLake]

Chunky rain here near sea level. Looks like the sticking snow level has dropped to about 1000ft

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Mt Bachelor has delayed opening to December 3 due to lack of snowfall.

If we get to December 3 and there’s still no sign of a good mountain snow pattern in the believable range then I think it’s time to start worrying. But for now let’s just wait and see. We all know about Novembers like this in Niña years. Better to get this out of the way now and get the goods at the coldest time of year.

I wonder when the ski resorts opened in 2016? That was an extremely mild fall, especially November. Tied for warmest on record at SLE, things changed BIGLY once we got into December. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Traditionally the first 10 days of December is a really good window for the seasons first shot of winter weather and usually a great sign. Both 1992 and 2016 had nice little events in early December and foreshadowed much bigger things to come. 

[joelgombiner]

When watching pressure anomalies grow/weaken/merge/migrate/dissipate around the atmosphere, do you have a physical understanding of what is happening and why? 

I don't. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was 11/23/2010... just 5 days later.

 

Tim with age you're cheeks are getting plumper. I wish I could go back in time when my son was 5 years old a play catch with him. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1956 and 1968 are other examples I can think of off the top of my head that had lowland snow in the Willamette Valley in early December. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

Looks a little too transitory. The jet is is raging.