PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks a little too transitory. The jet is is raging.

Not after Day 10 it's not. It's held back well west of ~180 W/Date Line.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

 

Daddy like!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

 

That is a very promising outlook which seems to signal deep cold arctic air will be readily available up in Western Canada to tap into if we have the right upper level pattern, amplification of it, or a deeply suppressed jet stream. If anything there would probably be a heightened chance at above average Cascade snowfall. Here we go!

 

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

Ya, guess you're right.  Looks closer to day 13 to me though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks a little too transitory. The jet is is raging.

When you mentioned the other day that it seems like we get more dry spells in winter than we used to, I did some research... I have been under that perception too, but we really don't. I think because we really came of age in the 90s, the middle and latter half of which were extremely wet, I think that perception is just kind of baked into us. But historically it is extremely rare for the jet to just rage for months on end. At some point that thing is going to buckle and we're get some blocking. Doesn't mean we'll score, it could be right over us for instance, but it would be extremely uncommon to have a wet pattern go on and on and on. The wettest winter in the past decade here was 2016-17, but December and January actually had below average precip. We got blasted with rain in fall, had a fairly dry Dec/Jan combo and then got nailed with zonal flow in February and March. 

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When you mentioned the other day that it seems like we get more dry spells in winter than we used to, I did some research... I have been under that perception too, but we really don't. I think because we really came of age in the 90s, the middle and latter half of which were extremely wet, I think that perception is just kind of baked into us. But historically it is extremely rare for the jet to just rage for months on end. At some point that thing is going to buckle and we're get some blocking. Doesn't mean we'll score, it could be right over us for instance, but it would be extremely uncommon to have a wet pattern go on and on and on. The wettest winter in the past decade here was 2016-17, but December and January actually had below average precip. We got blasted with rain in fall, had a fairly dry Dec/Jan combo and then got nailed with zonal flow in February and March. 

Somebody has kept track of it for SF. Pretty neat https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm

[van city]

35 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

You forgot. MBG

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just came across a crazy video of the tractor rescues in Sumas.

I think the best line is "I've never had to worry about making a wake with a tractor before"

Probably several hundred thousand dollars worth of tractors they took out there and risked destroying. 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, van city said:

You forgot. MBG

I totally did! Thanks for catching that!

00z GFS in 6 hours 7 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 17 minutes

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 hours ago, Deweydog said:

If tomorrow’s system happened a month from now there would only be SEVEN SHOPPING DAYS UNTIL XMAS!

If it was sunny and beautiful today in the PNW, a month from now there would only by seven shopping days until Christmas. 

[Snownerd3000]

Been watching the weeklies, cfs and GEFS extended forecasts the last several weeks.  Signal seems to show a warmer than period for the next week or two giving the east coast shots of cold air with a flip in the pattern to a cooler than normal period starting around the 2nd week of December with reinforcing shots of colder air towards the end of the month.  Should be fun to watch the models develop as we get closer.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Full 12Z EPS run... that AL pattern does break down as we get into early December.    I think extrapolation is in order!  

 

Looks like the same progression as the weeklies have been showing.

[Canadian guy]

Any update on the euro weeklies today?

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain has begun here 0.01” in the bucket and 46 degrees. Probably around an inch of rain here in the next 24 hours. 

[Gradient Keeper]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Any update on the euro weeklies today?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Thanks, Tim. That looks outstanding and very blocky. Good signal for at least backdoor cold.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Thanks, Tim. That looks outstanding and very blocky. Good signal for at least backdoor cold.

Agreed... it seems ripe for opportunities in December.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The last legit arctic blast from a 850mb temp perspective was in early December 2009? right?

[Tyler Mode]

1245 PM  Sunrise in Barrow...for the last time until January.  The sun sets there in 44 minutes.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The last legit arctic blast from a 850mb temp perspective was in early December 2009? right?

February 2014 or December 2013, depending on your preferred metric.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The last legit arctic blast from a 850mb temp perspective was in early December 2009? right?

November 2010

December 2013

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

February 2014 or December 2013, depending on your preferred metric.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fun fact... SLE has not recorded an 850mb temp below -10C in January since 1982. This may be the year. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks a little too transitory. The jet is is raging.

Single most important thing is getting rid of that Alaska vortex, which both model runs here do. That is the single greatest obstacle right now to getting interesting weather here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Single most important thing is getting rid of that Alaska vortex, which both model runs here do. That is the single greatest obstacle right now to getting interesting weather here.

Justin and I love Alaska cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.01" of rain. The dry streak is over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanksgiving is looking wet on the GFS. 

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

11/22/10 was the most intense arctic front I've ever experienced. 60 mph North winds on Bainbridge knocked out power and we had 4" of blowing/drifting snow with temps falling into the low 20's. It was wild.

I really enjoyed Nov 2010, unfortunately all of my pics are on my old Android phone that completely died, and that was the time before the cloud. I would have been okay dokey with a redux.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I really enjoyed Nov 2010, unfortunately all of my pics are on my old Android phone that completely died, and that was the time before the cloud. I would have been okay dokey with a redux.  

I will NEVER forget Thanksgiving 2010. My ex-wife and I went down to the bar in downtown Silverton the night before, she was not much of a drinker, but for whatever reason she went all out that night. The next day she wanted my buddy to take pictures of us in the snow up at Silver Falls for Christmas cards. About 2 miles from the park she demanded he pull over and she stumbled out into the snow face planted and vomited for about 15 minutes. Came back to the car, we took the pics, and then went back to town. Later we went to my Dad's for Thanksgiving, and she just laid on his couch the entire time... We ended up having to re-take the pics for the Christmas cards. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking for my November 2010 pics... Came across these gems from the Mt. Angel Abbey on December 6, 2010. First one is Mt. St. Helens with Mt. Rainier behind it. 

Mt. Adams

Then of course Mt. Hood. 

My nice digital camera, which was probably about 5% as good as an iPhone 13 is today.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Always good to see Alaska get cold. 

 No it’s not.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS shows western Alaska cold after day 10... that is a fairly strong signal for 288 hours.

 

 

That’s a good pattern according to Andrew.

#ZonalFlow #1999/00

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

That’s a good pattern according to Andrew.

#ZonalFlow #1999/00

You will appreciate this story. I remember back in 1999/2000 I was constantly logging on to weatherunderground and looking at temps in Alaska and freaking out about how cold it was up there. IF ONLY THAT DROPS SOUTH!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Been watching the weeklies, cfs and GEFS extended forecasts the last several weeks.  Signal seems to show a warmer than period for the next week or two giving the east coast shots of cold air with a flip in the pattern to a cooler than normal period starting around the 2nd week of December with reinforcing shots of colder air towards the end of the month.  Should be fun to watch the models develop as we get closer.  

Alaska flips warm week4 while the PNW gets cold?

Impossible.

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I really enjoyed Nov 2010, unfortunately all of my pics are on my old Android phone that completely died, and that was the time before the cloud. I would have been okay dokey with a redux.  

I was living in PDX at the time and recall reading Cliff Mass's blog as he was doing a live cast of the storm unfolding.  I recall an intense surface low spinning up off the Olympic peninsula from that front and it being the commute from hell for a number of people around the sound.  By the time it got down to PDX the front fizzled.  Don't recall getting much of anything from that storm down there.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You will appreciate this story. I remember back in 1999/2000 I was constantly logging on to weatherunderground and looking at temps in Alaska and freaking out about how cold it was up there. IF ONLY THAT DROPS SOUTH!

The lowest 850mb temperature in the dropsonde record in Alaska occurred in 1999.

[snow drift]

Snowing here in Spokane

[Deweydog]

The big PNA ridge over Xmas and subsequent retrogression around New Year’s 2000 was a pretty close call…

[Phil]

Blathering aside, unlikely we repeat 1999/00. I’m still bullish on a real -PNA/GOA High establishing during mid/late December.

Might not be amplified enough for a true arctic blast, but it should be close. I’d definitely like my chances in the northern areas as it could be a gradient situation.

Praying for TWL.