PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Chewbacca Defense]

42 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow what awful music LOL. Let's see 1999-2000 I was listening to Metal, Bass Music, Classic Rock, some rap No Limit stuff mainly.

Yeah, I'm seeing Lenni Kravitz and Madness....that's all I recognize/listen to on that list. 

 

Just realized we only made it up to 39 today after a low of 34.  Currently 37, I'm guessing I don't have to drive very far for some positive splat tests.

 

Up to .41" in the rain bucket, but I'm sure that is .41" more than anyone up here wants to see. 

 

I was talking to a buddy who lived in Minot (retired USAF) and he figured out this week that one of his kids has pretty bad PTSD from the massive flooding they had in..I think it was 2011?  He had to pull up a map and talk her through the elevations/distances from the river where he lives now in Bellingham vs. where they lived in Minot (which was pretty much right on the river.)

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

No video. At least not for me. I wanna see snow! I wanna see SNOW!

Here I made it into a GIF Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Here I made it into a GIF Lol

Yeah!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

22 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Awesome! We head up there every year between Christmas and the New Year. It’s a sh*t show, but that’s part of the deal. Such a beautiful area. Enjoy.

Thanks.  That is a fun time of year.  They are adding a few activities this year, including more mid week activities so that not everyone comes on the weekend.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This storm is taking a beautiful track for snow in western Washington.  What a shame there isn't colder air in place. It's rare for a low pressure system to take this route.

Let's hope we see more this winter.  This would be a winner for my area.  We've already seen an AR south of us this season as well.

[snow_wizard]

Model trends are looking quite promising for something interesting in early December.  It's really beginning to show up on the GFS ensemble as well.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, T-Town said:

 

It's a pretty big deal they have the northern Rockies and northern Plains below normal as well.  That indicates they expect some continental cold to be in play as opposed to just maritime polar.

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thanks.  That is a fun time of year.  They are adding a few activities this year, including more mid week activities so that not everyone comes on the weekend.

We did a few Christmas break visits to Leavenworth in the 2000s. Stayed at Der Ritterhoff, which was kind of a dump but was great with the kids and dogs. Good snowy memories. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a pretty big deal they have the northern Rockies and northern Plains below normal as well.  That indicates they expect some continental cold to be in play as opposed to just maritime polar.

Let’s do this!

[snow_wizard]

Down to 40 here now.  The evaporative cooling is really doing its job.

All in all the ECMWF is pretty cool for the next several days with some decent low temps this weekend and early next week.  Highs mostly in the 40s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 40 here now.  The evaporative cooling is really doing its job.

All in all the ECMWF is pretty cool for the next several days with some decent low temps this weekend and early next week.  Highs mostly in the 40s.

I don’t get to excited about frost in November, but looks a pattern that could deliver such over the weekend. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

28 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thanks.  That is a fun time of year.  They are adding a few activities this year, including more mid week activities so that not everyone comes on the weekend.

Finding parking in Leavenworth around Christmas is harder then finding parking at Costco on a Sunday 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.21” of rain this evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Finding parking in Leavenworth around Christmas is harder then finding parking at Costco on a Sunday 

My ex wife and I went up there in December 2011. It was fun, the hotel we stayed at gave us free skis so we went up to Stevens Pass. First and last time I have ever gone skiing. 

[ShawniganLake]

Had a high of 36F today. Mixed precip that occasionally turned to wet snow but nothing accumulated. 0.41” of liquid. 

[T-Town]

Tough night on Snoqualmie pass. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

This storm has a Jan 10th, 2017 look to it, albeit it about 75-100 miles north and no cold air in place.  But similar in it's look.

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My ex wife and I went up there in December 2011. It was fun, the hotel we stayed at gave us free skis so we went up to Stevens Pass. First and last time I have ever gone skiing. 

We went skiing at Mission Ridge on one of our Leavenworth trips. Beautiful sunny day. We took one run and my youngest said she had a stomach ache. We went back to the hotel and as we pulled into the parking lot she puked all over the back seat of our Tahoe. Good times. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F & a DP of 51F with the occasional shower.

[TT-SEA]

Surreal scene from Abbotsford...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen is pretty IN on December now... Seems like he rooting for the "goods." Jesse would be proud. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen is pretty IN on December now... Seems like he rooting for the "goods." Jesse would be proud. 

Mark is the man. The best in the biz as far as I’m concerned. I respect the heck out of him.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen is pretty IN on December now... Seems like he rooting for the "goods." Jesse would be proud. 

What pretell did Mhork say?

Edit: Saw it on Facebook......good deal!!!

 

[MossMan]

42/38 on the day. 
Currently 40.

.27” on the day, 10.50” on the month, 52.69” on the year. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Model trends are looking quite promising for something interesting in early December.  It's really beginning to show up on the GFS ensemble as well.

Gefs ext looks interesting though Dec as well

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen is pretty IN on December now... Seems like he rooting for the "goods." Jesse would be proud. 

So what does Matt win if his December to remember premonition comes to be? 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

The next 7-10 days won't offer up too much excitement, but overall the weather the next week will be drier than wet. Some weak weather systems at times and Turkey(or Pizza?) day looks wet which is unfortunate for those traveling to and from any family destinations. We will be focusing more long range way out there in la-la land to see if a ridge merger develops around Day 10-11. What is a ridge merger? It is when a ridge either over us, or just offshore typically a flat ridge merges with an upstream ridge over the Aleutians. This then often forms into a large block of high pressure which also effectively shits down the Pacific jet stream. We may not see that pop up on this run, but the ensembles show this to occur around Day 11. We shall see! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what does Matt win if his December to remember premonition comes to be? 

Not to sway the awards committee, but I did lose my copy of this….

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

37 here with snow mixed in at times. Hoping when the wind picks up later it might dry the air mass out some. If we can get some heavier precip rates it might turn to snow.  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Not to sway the awards committee, but I did lose my copy of this….

Unavailable. I was going to buy you an early Christmas gift too. How about that Leaf Blower though?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Unavailable. I was going to buy you an early Christmas gift too. How about that Leaf Blower though?

Electric? I suppose that would be ok but I’d prefer to burn some serious fossil fuels.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Electric? I suppose that would be ok but I’d prefer to burn some serious fossil fuels.

Me too. Big, gnarly, nasty, smelly exhaust smoking out the kids, other family members, and hopefully the neighbors too.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 45 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Deweydog]

PDX up to .23.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Surreal scene from Abbotsford...

Pretty sad situation for some.  Some people are going to lose the houses and businesses permanently. They have to build a levee to stop the floodwaters from pouring into the Sumas prairie but in order to do so, some people are going to permanently lose their property 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - Past 4 runs. That trough has trended a bit more favorably.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX up to .23.

Joshua on his way to PDX to tamper with the rain gauge as we speak.