PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 11/17/2021 at 10:29 PM, TT-SEA said:

So it would be a different air mass then?

You haven’t been paying attention. It’s the exact same air mass, only different.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Approaching 11.5" on the month now. 0.29" since midnight, 0.75" with the "event."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw this map posted on FB by our old friend Andy in Woodinville.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this map posted on FB by our old friend Andy in Woodinville.

That would be nice

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

That would be nice

That is centered right over Christmas too.  

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like PDX will end up with .37'' total. I was a little too pessimistic with my .25'' forecast. Bust either way.

 

Update... PDX is at .40 now.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is centered right over Christmas too.  

Pretty strong signal for a 7 day mean. Could theoretically happen! Would be nice to not have to wait all the way until February before any meaningful winter weather. (Not to complain about 2019 and 2021 of course!)

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, North_County said:

Thanks for sharing, Chewbacca. My parents' place makes an appearance. Right here. They've already gutted it. Floor to basically ceiling.

Good to hear they have already gutted it, *hopefully* that will save them in the long run in terms of rehabilitating the house.  Have you been able to get in and look at your business yet?

I'm hoping to catch up with my neighbor this weekend (he is a WSDOT Engineer) to find out how things are looking on the road/bridge front.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Update... PDX is at .40 now.

That changes everything

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

That changes everything

Makes your prediction is a little farther off.  

And its not like another .25 would make a difference either... on top of a sopping wet landscape that is now in dormancy.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Makes your prediction is a little farther off.  

And its not like another .25 would make a difference either... on top of a sopping wet landscape that is now in dormancy.

The bottom line is that the bulk of the precipitation shifting north within 36 hours of the event. You’re right, .25” , .40”, .50”… it doesn’t make a difference. I was annoyed that the models overpromised yet again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really coming down out there still. Now at 1" even with this system and 0.54" since midnight, temp down to 42. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS back to showing the next weak system diving into CA on Monday.

[LowerGarfield]

When I checked an hour ago it was 44F and rainy at my location.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this map posted on FB by our old friend Andy in Woodinville.

could we have another Christmas miracle?!

[FroYoBro]

I think the next two weeks will be pretty boring weather wise.

 

Rest up for our HUGE winter that is coming.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS brings in a couple fronts over the next 10 days... on Thanksgiving Day and next Saturday... but is still drier than normal over the next 10 days.

 

[RentonHill]

WX station has been down since the windstorm (it doesnt reconnect to wifi after wifi comes back on for some reason) but its probably 27-28 based on nearby stations. Looks like maybe an inch or so.

[TT-SEA]

Sure looks beautiful at Whistler this morning...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Cleared out overnight here. Low of 29F

[ShawniganLake]

Cypress mountain in North Vancouver is actually opening for limited skiing today. Just 1 lift going by the sounds of it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 41 this morning looks like the rains wrapped up…0.43” this morning and 1.03” in the last 18 hours. 

[MossMan]

Sunny and cold. Currently 40 degrees. 
.02” on the day. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and cloudy but dry.

[Deweydog]

Just your run of the mill 946mb cutoff low…

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just your run of the mill 946mb cutoff low…

That exact same thing happened in December 1949 right before the arctic hammer dropped.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

That exact same thing happened in December 1949 right before the arctic hammer dropped.  

Now it will retrograde to about KONA. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this map posted on FB by our old friend Andy in Woodinville.

Alaska is warm. 

[Skagit Weather]

Crazy view of the sediment transfer from all the flooding rivers after the storm. You can see mud from the Fraser, Nooksack, and Skagit as well as from other rivers on Vancouver Island and in the Coastal Range.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pretty strong signal for a 7 day mean. Could theoretically happen! Would be nice to not have to wait all the way until February before any meaningful winter weather. (Not to complain about 2019 and 2021 of course!)

It’s actually the control run. Not the mean. Basically just another operational at a lower resolution I think.

[Blizzard777]

Excited to see our Holliday season may interact with some cold and snow! 
 

North winds blowing around 15-20 last night.  
.82 precipitation and temperatures pretty consistent through the night at 42*

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Crazy view of the sediment transfer from all the flooding rivers after the storm. You can see mud from the Fraser, Nooksack, and Skagit as well as from other rivers on Vancouver Island and in the Coastal Range.

 

Looks like it’s trending south….weird 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It’s actually the control run. Not the mean. Basically just another operational at a lower resolution I think.

I know, I was saying that it's a pretty cold 7 day average, even if it is just one member.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Alaska is warm. 

Alaska is a big state, parts are still cold.

[Blizzard777]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Alaska is warm. 

 

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Alaska is a big state, parts are still cold.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Per radar it's still raining moderately at home. Decent little soaker. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After months of showing December torching, the CFS now shows the month below average. LOL

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF disagrees with the GFS for the Monday system.   The ECMWF brings it right into western WA instead of diving down into CA.   At least the ECMWF knows where rain is desperately needed.  

[Skagit Weather]

Hard to imagine the rain over the past week made so little a dent in OR/Eastern WA drought, but I guess they're still quite a bit below on the year. And yes, I realize the recent precipitation has been concentrated more to the north.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Hard to imagine the rain over the past week made so little a dent in OR/Eastern WA drought, but I guess they're still quite a bit below on the year. And yes, I realize the recent precipitation has been concentrated more to the north.

12Z ECMWF just pounds western WA and BC again later next week with additional AR events.   Nature is cruel.   More excessive rain where it's not needed and very little where it is needed.