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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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54/38 and 0.2" on the day. Currently 38F for my 9PM bong rip. Nice evening

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Beautiful day South Sound although I noticed what looked to be a nice CZ north of me.  

50/40 and currently sitting at my low for the day at the moment.  
Fun note the Orcas spent the whole day in Commencement Bay and just not a few!   Everywhere I looked from Point Defiance to the shipping port  “there be whales”!   I have no idea the number but pretty sure I will never witness anything like this again.  Need and actual camera to do any justice to what I saw.  iPhone sucks in this case :( 

DB9662CD-0C5D-4240-AC64-B4AD3CFCF2E2.png

1917A060-D423-4BB6-939E-C2BE2C40A21F.png

CA7ECBBF-35C0-43AD-93F0-BABA7977D01B.jpeg

That’s so cool! Nice shots 

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3 hours ago, T-Town said:

 

1983....yet another winter that got really cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Talk about a delicate balance with the upcoming pattern evolution.  The critical event that has to happen to make this thing work out is still over a week away so the models will continue to have good and bad runs IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well our December to remember might be shot but Fred did sign us all up for a one year membership for the jelly of the month club. 

I know you're joking.  This run could have easily broken favorably just like the previous couple of runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GEFS dumps a lot of troughing into the GOA. 😬 

This is one of the most delicate balance situations I've seen in a while.  It's going to be a few days before we have a solid idea how this will evolve.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This is one of the most delicate balance situations I've seen in a while.  It's going to be a few days before we have a solid idea how this will evolve.

On Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadian liked the idea of highs in the single digits 120 hours out.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is one of the most delicate balance situations I've seen in a while.  It's going to be a few days before we have a solid idea how this will evolve.

That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role.

Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins.

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Meanwhile...the GEM looks better than the 12z.  I have no idea how the ECMWF will look.  My guess is better than the GFS.  It's been looking quite bullish on amplifying the Pacific ridge piece of the puzzle just before the ridge merger.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

On Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadian liked the idea of highs in the single digits 120 hours out.

That was a weird situation though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah he has been making that clear all day. 

I’m thinking of jumping overboard but I’m not in the water yet.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role.

Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins.

Can't wait to see how it plays out.  Even if this fails it's very early in the game.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a weird situation though.

None of this is new.

Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, luminen said:

So, is the dream over? Is it really over? Man. 😭

In Cranbrook it's going to get cold regardless.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I’ll go down with the ship. Turns out it’s a submarine.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Just now, Deweydog said:

None of this is new.

Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late.

Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics.  It could still work out though.

These last several winters have been interesting.  Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019.  Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics.  It could still work out though.

These last several winters have been interesting.  Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019.  Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for.

If we were looking at “the classics” through our modern lens of expecting too much from 10+ day weather models, the margin for error would be just as thin.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
It is one run. If we see this the next 6-8 with the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS then we can say this initial period into the first 2 weeks of December *could* be shot.

Absolutely.  The run was basically the same as other recent runs through day 7 or so.  It all comes down to the way that trough splits over the GOA.  It appears the GEFS is going to save itself on this run....at least to some extent.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
EURO not running on Pivotal site.....

It has not started on WB either... so its probably an issue at the source.    It normally starts the 00Z run at 9:50.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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La Nino

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
EURO not running on Pivotal site.....

Uh oh.  Not running on Weatherbell yet either.  Talk about a bad time for it not to run!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are you a lawyer in real life 

He is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It's just plain sad how addicted I am to the models in a case like this.  The ECMWF not running will be like an addict not being able to get a fix.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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