Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Recommended Posts

12z still sux.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was 27F earlier around 7am when I was driving our dog to daycare and there was fog but just certain areas. Currently 30F but no fog where I'm at. Trying to have a relax day till have I have to pick up the Tasmanian devil 😂.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, Dr. Roundy’s filtered tropical forcing analogs still appear to favor mid-December for a colder pattern with arctic potential in the PNW.

Sometimes guidance rushes these pattern changes.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, Dr. Roundy’s filtered tropical forcing analogs still appear to favor mid-December for a colder pattern with arctic potential in the PNW.

Sometimes guidance rushes these pattern changes.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

I'm not seeing much on that link.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gem isn’t bad.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last couple runs of the Gem have been so wet it's not even funny. They show 25-35" throughout the Washington Cascades/Olympics and 5-10" throughout the lowlands during the next 10 days. Obviously it usually overdoes precip, but even half that which is what the Euro shows will be damaging

  • Rain 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, Dr. Roundy’s filtered tropical forcing analogs still appear to favor mid-December for a colder pattern with arctic potential in the PNW.

Sometimes guidance rushes these pattern changes.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

I've said since the beginning that I think the models are rushing things a bit. They have a tendency to do that with these big pattern changes. I still think the 2nd full week of December is when we start to see some action developing. Right around the 15th or so. Remaining committed to that.

Until then I fully expect models to tease good things every now and again only to take it away the next run. Also expect this forum will be going through the ringer following the ups and downs of model riding, along with more of Andrew's "devastating trends" and "will we ever see snow again" and "winter cancel" trolling posts. 

  • Like 5
  • lol 1

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've said since the beginning that I think the models are rushing things a bit. They have a tendency to do that with these big pattern changes. I still think the 2nd full week of December is when we start to see some action developing. Right around the 15th or so. Remaining committed to that.

Until then I fully expect models to tease good things every now and again only to take it away the next run. Also expect this forum will be going through the ringer following the ups and downs of model riding, along with more of Andrew's "devastating trends" and "will we ever see snow again" and "winter cancel" trolling posts. 

windshield wiper effect.  use to that from Hurricane model riding on the east coast.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That winter was trollsauce. It was puking snow over the Gulf of Mexico before we even had our first flake.

Then a big daddy blizzard nuked NYC/New England while giving us < 1”, which blew away in 5 minutes of ferocious downslope wind that ripped our gutter off.

Didn’t have a legit snowstorm until March 18th. Then a few weeks later it was summer. 🤮

We got all of our snow that March as well. 102" in March and that was it for the winter. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The last couple runs of the Gem have been so wet it's not even funny. They show 25-35" throughout the Washington Cascades/Olympics and 5-10" throughout the lowlands during the next 10 days. Obviously it usually overdoes precip, but even half that which is what the Euro shows will be damaging

ADA18287-64E9-4F2C-87C4-41DC5E19EF26.jpeg
 

This would be devastating to the Sumas region 

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we need to do forum merchandise. Tshirts and beer koozies. Who doesn’t want a 100% cotton T bearing “devastating trends” in massive block (thanks to a ridge merger) letters?

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • lol 2
  • Popcorn 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think we need to do forum merchandise. Tshirts and beer coozies. Who doesn’t want a 100% cotton T bearing “devastating trends” in massive block (thanks to a ridge merger) letters?

It could raise money for forum maintenance, and I would only need about 75% royalties on my trademarked phrases. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

6AA555D2-2497-48A0-9FCF-847536DC9DF1.png

Only thing this map is missing is the area of red around Joshua’s house. It’s too blue to be true. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 2
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmm... For what it's worth (Nothing) the CFS shows December near normal and a below normal January now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think we need to do forum merchandise. Tshirts and beer koozies. Who doesn’t want a 100% cotton T bearing “devastating trends” in massive block (thanks to a ridge merger) letters?

Fred really missing out on an opportunity here. Who doesn't want to wear a boardwalk style "I SURVIVED 11 days of model riding for a rain/snow mix 2021" t-shirt made out of the cheapest possible materials.

  • Like 1
  • lol 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think we need to do forum merchandise. Tshirts and beer koozies. Who doesn’t want a 100% cotton T bearing “devastating trends” in massive block (thanks to a ridge merger) letters?

Feel free to use my “wet deck” and “massive dumpage” trademark sayings as well. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MossMan said:

Feel free to use my “wet deck” and “massive dumpage” trademark sayings as well. 

Muddy dogs?

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Feel free to use my “wet deck” and “massive dumpage” trademark sayings as well. 

Those might end up in the beaded curtain section like at the video store along with “backdoor action” and “anal logs gone wild.” Here we go!

  • lol 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol I couldn’t even explain the dynamics and inside jokes of this forum to someone who doesn’t post here. We’re all just a bunch of nut jobs, trolls and dorks. 

  • Like 4
  • Excited 2

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Fred really missing out on an opportunity here. Who doesn't want to wear a boardwalk style "I SURVIVED 11 days of model riding for a rain/snow mix 2021" t-shirt made out of the cheapest possible materials.

Only 11 days?

Have you not seen the weeklies???

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF looks really bad for NW WA and SW BC over the next week.    Dumps excessive rain exactly where its not needed. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_7day-8446400.png

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Devastating euro run

Yeah... this is another disaster in the making up there. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8489600.png

  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks really bad for NW WA and SW BC over the next week.    Dumps excessive rain exactly where its not needed. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_7day-8446400.png

Looks really bad here too. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tiger Pissed.gif

  • lol 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...