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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is another disaster in the making up there. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8489600.png

Yikes. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Would be amazing to have a winter as good as 06-07, 10-11 or even 05-06 or 07-08. Doesn't seem like much to ask, but we'll see. Might be a tall task this year. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be amazing to have a winter as good as 06-07, 10-11 or even 05-06 or 07-08. Doesn't seem like much to ask, but we'll see. Might be a tall task this year. ;)

That's our situation here for almost 3 years now. Only 4 sub-40F highs. Depressing.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least the Euro gets colder!

ecmwf-deterministic-KPLU-daily_tmin_tmax-7755200.png

Rain actually stops for a day late in the run... but unfortunately it looks like its just a short break.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-8532800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not even any appreciable mountain snow on the horizon now.  Shut the forum down!

12Z ECMWF shows zero snow for all of the Oregon Cascades over the next 10 days... pretty ridiculous going into December.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How many of you have had a White Thanksgiving and if so I'm curious as to whom had the most? At a coffeehouse waiting for Les Schwab to do some work on my tires. Should be another two hours  Picked a bad day of course with the holiday tomorrow, but coffee and model watching are fun even so.

 

 

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

How many of you have had a White Thanksgiving and if so I'm curious as to whom had the most? At a coffeehouse waiting for Les Schwab to do some work on my tires. Should be another two hours  Picked a bad day of course with the holiday tomorrow, but coffee and model watching are fun even so.

 

 

Think the last time most of us had a white thanksgiving was 2010. We had about 4” of snow here in Tacoma. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

How many of you have had a White Thanksgiving and if so I'm curious as to whom had the most? At a coffeehouse waiting for Les Schwab to do some work on my tires. Should be another two hours  Picked a bad day of course with the holiday tomorrow, but coffee and model watching are fun even so.

 

 

Definitely had a white Thanksgiving in 2010.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So is this what we are all complaining about this morning?

Because what I see is the same general pattern change in place - ridging moving into the Aleutians, troughing in Western Canada/PNW, and a ridge nearing the SE corner of the US. Pieces might not be in the exact spot we need them but for 11+ days out, this looks pretty good in my book. 

Oh wait - I'm sorry. Gotta stick to the script... Devastating trends!!!

1638705600-GUjjhRDfS2c.png

1638705600-aHB73wH3oQ0.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

So is this what we are all complaining about this morning?

Because what I see is the same general pattern change in place - ridging moving into the Aleutians, troughing in Western Canada/PNW, and a ridge nearing the SE corner of the US. Pieces might not be in the exact spot we need them but for 11+ days out, this looks pretty good in my book. 

Oh wait - I'm sorry. Gotta stick to the script... Devastating trends!!!

1638705600-GUjjhRDfS2c.png

1638705600-aHB73wH3oQ0.png

Some people are using that term to describe the rain amounts being shown in NW WA and SW BC over the next 10 days on the GEM and ECMWF.      That could be a pretty serious situation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uh oh Phil’s not gonna like this 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

(sarcasm ON) Yeah but what the hell would he know, he's only a PhD, its not like he knows anything about weather or had any formal education in it (sarcasm OFF) 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

🤦‍♂️

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

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Just now, MossMan said:

Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. 

Pattern changes are tough for the models... but the big picture feels ripe with opportunity.     And early December cold and snow is not probably not ideal if you want cold and snow during the second half of December around Christmas.    Nature might be saving up to drop the hammer hard later in December!    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports? 
Anyway it’s currently cloudy and 44 degrees. 

Absolutely no good news today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

In Cranbrook it's going to get cold regardless.

Still been pathetic here though. Only about 1" of snow accumulated and I've already had about 7 days with snow falling. And that snow is all gone now. 😭

 

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23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I have no idea how to read these maps.

Let me give this a try... 

We're looking at how the winds at the 850 hPa pressure level near the equator are changing with time. This is important because these winds affect the movement of sea surface water, which affects the strength of convection in the tropics, which affects the entire global atmosphere. 

Zonal means the E-W component of the wind. Near the equator, the dominant wind pattern is the trade winds which blow from east to west. 

Negative values on the plot indicate stronger than normal trade winds (i.e. more air than normal moving from east to west), while positive values indicate weaker than normal trade winds or even westerly winds if the values are positive enough. 

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

-=easterly trade winds/la niña friendly, +=westerly winds/el niño friendly

Nino region 3.4 is around 150 W. We want enhanced trade winds from there and westward.

Whoops, I was reading the sign of the anomalies backwards then. 

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