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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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Just saw this update on the BC floods.  Totally unreal it's still this bad.  The Fraser Valley is so wide and slightly sloped the water is taking forever to work its way through.

 

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The extended range GEFS mean (weeks 3-4) does develop a substantial -EPO by mid-December. Way out there, though.

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away.

Never be worried about a winter being a bust until February 20th. The season hasn’t started yet…pretty difficult to get worried when December 1st is even in the clown range currently. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away.

Winter starts in another 10 days. Might be a bit early to write off the season based on the long range models on November 21

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After doing some looking into the Fraser River flood history it turns out this is the first significant flood they have ever had in the Autumn since the area was settled.  All of the major floods in the past were largely from rapid snow melt in the spring.  That is pretty incredible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Winter starts in another 10 days. Might be a bit early to write off the season based on the long range models on November 21

The long range models are actually looking pretty promising anyway.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
It's a chilly one tonight!
 
1:22 AM
Temp: 32.2, Dewpoint: 28.9

This little chilly interlude hasn't been half bad considering what we had to work with.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

How did the 00z EPS look specifically Day 10-15? It is times like these I wish I had WXBell or the other site? Weathermodels? I think.....

6z GFS is running

Zonal, a bit warmer than 12z. Still waiting for something interesting to manifest from the noise.

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EC ensemble

833E3B95-E81A-4B7B-9F05-789DD7B9B5F2.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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36A4DA19-82C2-4E18-B142-7F8C00645744.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

After doing some looking into the Fraser River flood history it turns out this is the first significant flood they have ever had in the Autumn since the area was settled.  All of the major floods in the past were largely from rapid snow melt in the spring.  That is pretty incredible.

The current flooding in the Fraser Valley isnt from the Fraser River. It's Nooksack River water that flowed through Sumas and has gotten "stuck" in the Fraser Valley before it can be pumped into the Fraser. Basically, the former Sumas Lake has refilled.

A pretty good article on the history of the drained Sumas Lake and the threat the Nooksack poses to it is here.

https://fvcurrent.com/article/sumas-lake-flooding-history/

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GFS is absolutely pathetic... At least SLE finally had a freeze. Better late than never.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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38 and sunny here this morning with a light east wind... today should be really nice out here.  

Also nice improvements for next weekend on the 12Z GFS.    The models have been trending farther west with the AR event next weekend as the trough digs deeper out in Pacific with more ridging in the PNW.    We will see if that trend holds or reverses.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hit 30 this morning, I saw Corvallis at 26 at one point. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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40F here at 8:30am, but it was a lot colder than that earlier since we had a really good frost last night. I like sleeping in on weekends, but I miss more interesting temperatures so it is a tradeoff.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Incredible how promising the models looked a couple days ago and how absolutely putrid they look now. La Nino? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Zonal, a bit warmer than 12z. Still waiting for something interesting to manifest from the noise.

It still displaces the AK vortex.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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40 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

28.9 and heckin foggy! We have a Dense Fog advisory in effect today. We had one earlier in the week too, but it wasn't foggy in my area. 

I love the expression on that cat's face in your avatar.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles... It's all about the ensembles. 

Lots of noise on the operationals. Much more steady on the ensembles. 

Ensembles...

1638640800-rcoIxdvXnNA.png

1638705600-42htt6gZuzs.png

1638576000-th2jYcrmMSg.png

Can't wait to see the extended ensemble later today.  It looked great yesterday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’d love to see the EPS stick to it. But I fear it’s just a blip. Can’t even get a good mountain snow pattern going either. Bachelor might not open at all at this rate. Was it 91-92 the last time it didn’t open?

It's not even Thanksgiving yet.  ❄️

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