Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Just saw this update on the BC floods. Totally unreal it's still this bad. The Fraser Valley is so wide and slightly sloped the water is taking forever to work its way through. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 35 in Troutdale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 12 hours ago, Phil said: I’m sure in all likelihood Brian in Leavenworth, Tim, and Andrew are sitting pretty this winter unless we have a +EPO that puts 1999 to shame. And maybe even then. I’d be nervous if I lived in a more borderline area, though. What about me? >.> Am I borderline sir? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 The extended range GEFS mean (weeks 3-4) does develop a substantial -EPO by mid-December. Way out there, though. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away. Never be worried about a winter being a bust until February 20th. The season hasn’t started yet…pretty difficult to get worried when December 1st is even in the clown range currently. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away. Winter starts in another 10 days. Might be a bit early to write off the season based on the long range models on November 21 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, Phil said: The extended range GEFS mean (weeks 3-4) does develop a substantial -EPO by mid-December. Way out there, though. Any takers? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 10 hours ago, Deweydog said: Showed a ridge merger in the extreme long range. That bad eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 It's a chilly one tonight! 1:22 AM Temp: 32.2, Dewpoint: 28.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 After doing some looking into the Fraser River flood history it turns out this is the first significant flood they have ever had in the Autumn since the area was settled. All of the major floods in the past were largely from rapid snow melt in the spring. That is pretty incredible. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Winter starts in another 10 days. Might be a bit early to write off the season based on the long range models on November 21 The long range models are actually looking pretty promising anyway. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: It's a chilly one tonight! 1:22 AM Temp: 32.2, Dewpoint: 28.9 This little chilly interlude hasn't been half bad considering what we had to work with. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 How did the 00z EPS look specifically Day 10-15? It is times like these I wish I had WXBell or the other site? Weathermodels? I think..... 6z GFS is running 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: How did the 00z EPS look specifically Day 10-15? It is times like these I wish I had WXBell or the other site? Weathermodels? I think..... 6z GFS is running Zonal, a bit warmer than 12z. Still waiting for something interesting to manifest from the noise. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 EC ensemble 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Still 35 in Troutdale, but foggy. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC ensemble Thanks. Not ideal yet, but that's an improvement and timing moved ahead quite a bit shutting down the Pacific. Ridge is much closer to ~160 W also. Here we go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 6z GEFS Another small step in the right direction. The positive anomaly/ridge axis nudged a little closer to ~160 W. I would like to see it closer to ~155-150 W personally. I like the ridge over the southern plains and rising heights over the southeastern US as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 30 just before midnight, and 28 this morning, but now it's pretty foggy. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 The fog cleared at work and I had ice on the window. Foggy at home with everything getting frosty. 33°. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Here we go again… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Currently 33. Lovely morning on tap. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 6 hours ago, snow_wizard said: After doing some looking into the Fraser River flood history it turns out this is the first significant flood they have ever had in the Autumn since the area was settled. All of the major floods in the past were largely from rapid snow melt in the spring. That is pretty incredible. The current flooding in the Fraser Valley isnt from the Fraser River. It's Nooksack River water that flowed through Sumas and has gotten "stuck" in the Fraser Valley before it can be pumped into the Fraser. Basically, the former Sumas Lake has refilled. A pretty good article on the history of the drained Sumas Lake and the threat the Nooksack poses to it is here. https://fvcurrent.com/article/sumas-lake-flooding-history/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 32 here in the swamp this morning. Wow. Frigid. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Here we go again… Oregon to get pathetic amounts again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 GFS is absolutely pathetic... At least SLE finally had a freeze. Better late than never. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 28.9 and heckin foggy! We have a Dense Fog advisory in effect today. We had one earlier in the week too, but it wasn't foggy in my area. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Everleigh said: 28.9 and heckin foggy! We have a Dense Fog advisory in effect today. We had one earlier in the week too, but it wasn't foggy in my area. That is quite frigid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 38 and sunny here this morning with a light east wind... today should be really nice out here. Also nice improvements for next weekend on the 12Z GFS. The models have been trending farther west with the AR event next weekend as the trough digs deeper out in Pacific with more ridging in the PNW. We will see if that trend holds or reverses. 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Hit 30 this morning, I saw Corvallis at 26 at one point. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Not bad for a weekend day in November... 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Foggy and 41 here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 40F here at 8:30am, but it was a lot colder than that earlier since we had a really good frost last night. I like sleeping in on weekends, but I miss more interesting temperatures so it is a tradeoff. 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Incredible how promising the models looked a couple days ago and how absolutely putrid they look now. La Nino? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Phil said: Zonal, a bit warmer than 12z. Still waiting for something interesting to manifest from the noise. It still displaces the AK vortex. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, Everleigh said: 28.9 and heckin foggy! We have a Dense Fog advisory in effect today. We had one earlier in the week too, but it wasn't foggy in my area. I love the expression on that cat's face in your avatar. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles... It's all about the ensembles. Lots of noise on the operationals. Much more steady on the ensembles. Ensembles... Can't wait to see the extended ensemble later today. It looked great yesterday. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 21, 2021 Report Share Posted November 21, 2021 9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I’d love to see the EPS stick to it. But I fear it’s just a blip. Can’t even get a good mountain snow pattern going either. Bachelor might not open at all at this rate. Was it 91-92 the last time it didn’t open? It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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