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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It’s probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

 

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

 

and-on-this-day-shots-were-firedet-nelneyenierator-net-pictures-of-52863470.png

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

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6 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

I believe that was when someone across the lake from our family lake house on LK Goodwin drove their Suzuki Samurai onto the lake and did okay for about 1 minute…They were okay as they kept it around the shallow area where it was only 4-5’ deep. The Samurai was probably okay after it dried out. 

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8 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

Easily the most anomalous event of my lifetime. Until last June.😬👹

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

(sarcasm ON) Yeah but what the hell would he know, he's only a PhD, its not like he knows anything about weather or had any formal education in it (sarcasm OFF) 

PHD’s are wrong all the time. It’s human nature.

The Yukon/NW Canada is an Arctic air source for the PNW. Alaska is not. To reach the PNW from Alaska, the airmass would have to travel 400+ miles over the Pacific.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

PHD’s are wrong all the time. It’s human nature.

The Yukon/NW Canada is an Arctic air source for the PNW. Alaska is not. To reach the PNW from Alaska, the airmass would have to travel 400+ miles over the Pacific.

Except that cold airmasses are commonly, i.e. almost always, shared between Yukon and Alaska. Same airmass essentially.

Or do you mean a slightly more eastward based airmass? Like western NWT and eastern Yukon?

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

Not to put words in anyone’s mouth, but I suspect if pressed he would acknowledge the fact Alaska itself is not the source. I assume he’s speaking broadly in reference to the region encompassed by the vortex, which includes Alaska.

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11 minutes ago, luminen said:

Except that cold airmasses are commonly, i.e. almost always, shared between Yukon and Alaska. Same airmass essentially.

Or do you mean a slightly more eastward based airmass? Like western NWT and eastern Yukon?

True. I’m only speaking to the notion that arctic cold can advect into the PNW directly from Alaska. I can’t find any instances of that ever happening, though I’m open to being proven wrong. Even Feb 1989 didn’t come straight from Alaska (though it’s the closest example I can find in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis).

Whether a behemoth +EPO vortex can translate to arctic cold in the PNW is another discussion. Though in my opinion, the data suggests it is more of a hindrance than a benefit, with some very notable exceptions.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. I’m only speaking to the notion that arctic cold can advect into the PNW directly from Alaska. I can’t find any instances of that ever happening. Even Feb 1989 didn’t come straight from Alaska (though it’s the closest example I can find in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis).

Whether a behemoth +EPO vortex can translate to arctic cold in the PNW is another discussion. Though in my opinion, the data suggests it is more of a hindrance than a benefit, with some very notable exceptions.

I think February 1989 was pretty much a direct connect. It was insane how much overwater trajectory there was with that behemoth.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think February 1989 was pretty much a direct connect. It was insane how much overwater trajectory there was with that behemoth.  

I’ll take another look at it. I admit I’m relying on memory re: 1989.

Still can’t fathom viewing AK as a source for arctic air anywhere in the lower-48.

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Just now, Phil said:

I’ll take another look at it. I admit I’m relying on memory re: 1989.

Still can’t fathom viewing AK as a source for arctic air anywhere in the lower-48. 

The strength of the vortex up there in late January was insane. Then it weakened slightly and just took off like a rocket. It was like a CFS 660 hour solution come to life!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. I’m only speaking to the notion that arctic cold can advect into the PNW directly from Alaska. I can’t find any instances of that ever happening, though I’m open to being proven wrong. Even Feb 1989 didn’t come straight from Alaska (though it’s the closest example I can find in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis).

Whether a behemoth +EPO vortex can translate to arctic cold in the PNW is another discussion. Though in my opinion, the data suggests it is more of a hindrance than a benefit, with some very notable exceptions.

December 1964 was pretty direct as well. Anchorage was -8/-30 on December 14 and Portland was 17/6 on December 17.

I'd also check out November 1955. Anchorage had a record 7/-11 on November 10 and the next day the arctic front hit the PNW, with a mostly WNW trajectory here.

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll take another look at it. I admit I’m relying on memory re: 1989.

Still can’t fathom viewing AK as a source for arctic air anywhere in the lower-48.

So maybe it would help if you define "source".  Do you mean the place where the arctic air was "born", or simply its latest stop before heading south?  Perhaps this is a matter of semantics.  Of course when it crosses the border, we don't claim that it was "bitter Vancouver air".  I do remember how insanely cold it was there in 1989, there was a lot of media coverage of it here, and when the pattern changed, they talked about how all that Alaskan cold was coming our way.  I am guessing having the cold air go over the ocean instead of land often modifies it quite a bit, so maybe that is why you are thinking we can't or rarely get true arctic air from Alaska.

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Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Andrew gets a visit from the 528dm fairy!

552dm fairy will be there on the next run 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Booooo GEFS is worse. but atleast we got the trusty GFS back on our side. What could go wrong? 

Gfs is sooo much more trustworthy 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It’s probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

Yeah....Feb 1989 is forever burned into my mind....and probably yours too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Nice to see the 18z spit out a fairly good run.  This thing is still very much alive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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