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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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Once again, all is right with the world. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, kokaneekidz said:

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

I remember standing outside slack jawed with snow falling sideways and a temp of 14 degrees at 2pm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

SEA is projected to be top 3 all-time wet Nov. by the time the month is over behind 2006 and 1998. The next week will see it climb the ladder even though as wet as it's been, currently sitting at #14.

1998....yet ANOTHER YEAR we had a blast.  Pretty much every year that has been thrown out there lately has been one where we had a major blast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

1998....yet ANOTHER YEAR we had a blast.  Pretty much every year that has been thrown out there lately has been one where we had a major blast.

That was a great blast... But not the most exciting winter. Personal preference, but I would prefer like half a dozen minor events to one big blast. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I think February 1989 was pretty much a direct connect. It was insane how much overwater trajectory there was with that behemoth.  

I still remember everything freezing up in the afternoon while we were still in the maritime polar part of that.  I'll bet 850s probably dropped to -12 or so before the blast was even close.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a great blast... But not the most exciting winter. Personal preference, but I would prefer like half a dozen minor events to one big blast. 

 

I kind of agree when it comes to December 1998.  December 1924 on the other hand...

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of agree when it comes to December 1998.  December 1924 on the other hand...

Well... Yeah... If we had something like December 1924 I would be okay with a torch the rest of the way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This actually ended up being another reasonably chilly day.  Only 47 / 34 here.  This past week has been consistently cooler than model projections.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This actually ended up being another reasonably chilly day.  Only 47 / 34 here.  This past week has been consistently cooler than model projections.

FWIW... the ECMWF actually showed a high of 45 at SEA today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This actually ended up being another reasonably chilly day.  Only 47 / 34 here.  This past week has been consistently cooler than model projections.

Looks like 43/34 at SLE so far today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The models still show the key moment in the pattern evolution being about a week out when the GOA trough split happens.  The runs that split it evenly seem to work out the best.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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This is why we love the DRUNCLE!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Flash freeze! I believe that was the day a lot of people were walking home on I-5.
 

And highs in the teens a few days later. Yum!  

72504DCB-2395-4815-8766-F4E1E56625F3.jpeg

AD5E3B38-6577-44A8-894D-E07564F8391E.jpeg

Now that is a great example of flash freeze!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Mod preview. 

😀

Well this sucks.   I am not saying a word about anything other than the current weather observations a little about shorter term flooding potential coming up again.      And patiently waiting to post snow maps when the big stuff gets close!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....Feb 1989 is forever burned into my mind....and probably yours too.

Onshore flow at the coast with temps in the upper 20’s. That just doesn’t happen. Then followed by 51 hours of sub-20 degree weather at KAST.

Not quite as bent as 116 degrees at PDX, but close.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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For the record... I would bet money on something very memorable happening in December in terms of cold and snow.  I think Matt is right there too.   I just think it might be in the second half of December... which will make it even more memorable. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I would bet money on something very memorable happening in December in terms of cold and snow.  I think Matt is right there too.   I just think it might be in the second half of December... which will make it even more memorable. 

Could be!

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I still remember everything freezing up in the afternoon while we were still in the maritime polar part of that.  I'll bet 850s probably dropped to -12 or so before the blast was even close.

I remember the wind howling and cackling. The snow pellets kept hitting me in the face. I remember how they stung. We were well below zero with winds gusting to 40+. Good stuff.

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I would bet money on something very memorable happening in December in terms of cold and snow.  I think Matt is right there too.   I just think it might be in the second half of December... which will make it even more memorable. 

It has to happen. I was told it has to happen and it will.

December 10th

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And growing up in MN and spending every Thanksgiving in Wisconsin... it was always pumpkin pie for us there too.

Side note.. my wife is actually making pumpkin pies right now.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Flash freeze! I believe that was the day a lot of people were walking home on I-5.
 

And highs in the teens a few days later. Yum!  

72504DCB-2395-4815-8766-F4E1E56625F3.jpeg

AD5E3B38-6577-44A8-894D-E07564F8391E.jpeg

Fell on my back that night getting firewood slipping on ice! North wind was furious and relentless!  Crazy fun night and wife was stuck on I-5 till early morning.  

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Fun fact for the day: 

SEA's daytime high sum through yesterday is 1216F (~650C), if such temperature does exist we'd be living on partially molten rock. 

Take that snow lovers.  Melt on contact. 

Pizza bake time only 2 minutes on the sidewalk ! 
3 minutes for extra crunchy 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I would bet money on something very memorable happening in December in terms of cold and snow.  I think Matt is right there too.   I just think it might be in the second half of December... which will make it even more memorable. 

Completely agree. Hearing a bit about how models tend to "rush" pattern changes... we're not even there yet. All we've seen is the typical fantasy range eyecandy, with maybe a hint of some kind of legitimate pattern change in the works. We'll be waiting a couple more weeks before anything truly interesting enters the realistic range, if we're going to get anything. But this overall weather regime we've been in has that 'buzz' to it, like snow is imminent. We'll see. White Christmas chances above normal IMO

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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🦃🍗 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🥧🍴

00z GFS in 1 hour 1 minute

I'm looking for a solid ridge merger before or around Day 8 with energy cut off/kona low shunted south towards Hawaii. I want to see the Aleutian ridge migrate further east to at least ~160 W preferably ~155-150 W. That's not too much to ask? right? You gotta believe! You gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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