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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

Meatyorologist

By Meatyorologist
in West of the Rockies

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jakerepp
jakerepp

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster. I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well! Any

Outpost54
Outpost54

Stop posting Oregon only maps. No one ******* cares. The WA map covers 99% of this forum's members, but the ones you keep posting cut out half of them for no reason. I'm so glad you never get snow. Yo

Phishy Wx
Phishy Wx

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The Canadian ensemble agrees with the EPS and GFS ensemble in building GOA heights as we get into December.  Now we wait and see how the details unfold.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's the spirit!

00z ECMWF(December 1st) in 250 hours 37 minutes

I think he is actually excited about the prospects going forward.

  • Excited 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Some places still stuck in the 30s this morning.  Not bad.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep just nudge that ridge --->

The 12z GFS ensemble was actually a bit east of previous runs.  A good number of cold members on that run.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

EPS seems to be doing the same thing the GEFS is doing... likely extending our wet pattern.

12Z run yesterday on top... and new 12Z EPS on the bottom.   The 12Z run yesterday would focus rain on CA... the 12Z run today focuses it on WA.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8446400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8446400 (1).png

  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Big change right after that 1A2E5721-2EB5-4093-841B-42EE8D811965.thumb.png.88baa670e6616a8f2e56a51d660b9321.png9C43CDC5-48F5-46BF-BBC8-5A9448080B59.thumb.png.6cb0dbc22b04640340530ff929b72bb8.png27E44F3F-6209-4222-A2FC-18F8572730A8.thumb.png.6da95e1ca327278ca9d396cfd5785911.png

Yeah... but look at the trend even later in the run.     

12Z run yesterday vs 12Z run today...  I just don't like the trends.   It seems like this wet pattern always gets extended despite what is shown in the long range.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8640800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8640800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Location different yes. I guess I’m more focused on killing vortex and getting block more East?

Maybe... just feels like we have a long way to go yet with these AR events.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_10day-8684000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's the only thing I'm watching for since all ensembles shut down the Pacific paving the way for that. C'MON!!!!

I would love to see the Pacific get shut down.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's the only thing I'm watching for since all ensembles shut down the Pacific paving the way for that. C'MON!!!!

There is no way to say the ensembles haven't been good today.  All show a big pattern shift.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What is real cold?

Fake cold simply means inversion.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

There is no way to say the ensembles haven't been good today.  All show a big pattern shift.

They all delayed it.   And as Matt pointed out... the big shift sort of looks like what we have right now.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, me too. It's coming and will become more apparent on the op runs in a few days. Ensembles insist on it right now.

The placement is getting pretty decent on the means today as well.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, TT-SEA said:

They all delayed it.   And as Matt pointed out... the big shift sort of looks like what we have right now.    

That big block that develops over the GOA on the ensembles is pretty solid and consistent at this point.  The coming MJO supports a meaningful change as well.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That big block that develops over the GOA on the ensembles is pretty solid and consistent at this point.  The coming MJO supports a meaningful change as well.

I want an end to the wet pattern more than anyone (its about to return).   And I hate seeing the pattern change get delayed and watered down.    That is usually a bad sign.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Posted
1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Sometimes real cold is warmer than fake cold.

No doubt.  We can get some killer inversions here on occasion being so far north.  January 2013 had about a week to ten days of well below normal temps with hard freezes at night under such a pattern.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I want an end to the wet pattern more than anyone (its about to return).   And I hate seeing the pattern change get delayed and watered down.    That is usually a bad sign.  

It just seems like early December is about the right time.  We shall see.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing to like is almost all model runs shred the PV as we get into early December.

The 00z GFS did, but the ensembles don’t show it.

794E39C3-E444-4756-A3CA-10B99A2674F2.png

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