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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

🤔

We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet.  Not exactly a good match.  The temperatures are totally wrong also.  Hard to shrug that off.  I think you are way too hung up on that year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure what to think about the prospects for early December.  The pieces are there, but the evolution has to be perfect for it to work out.  I think a minor cold snap at the very least.  If the big one doesn't work out on the first try I think it will try again by mid month given the MJO forecast.

I was thinking this exactly. Long range models have shown a persistent cold that got colder though the month, not just the eye candy I shared earlier. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet.  Not exactly a good match.  The temperatures are totally wrong also.  Hard to shrug that off.  I think you are way too hung up on that year.

So you believe projecting from the subseasonal state is more useful than doing so relative to the mean state?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

So you believe projecting from the subseasonal state is more useful than doing so relative to the mean state?

Are you new? Do you think this is gonna go anywhere? Did I leave the iron on?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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In general the ECMWF looks more amplified around days 5 and 6 than the 12z.  We'll see where that takes us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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00Z ECMWF is also considerably better for the Vancouver BC and Whatcom County area than its 12Z run in terms of excessive rainfall.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-8662400 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_63.thumb.png.062da26632dbbc4654014f56920d9a2d.png

This is a good frame for just about everyone between San Fran and Portland. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

  • Rain 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I just extrapolated. And there is always that one rouge member but otherwise we are looking good for Christmas!! 

A64D3010-44B9-4802-95A0-949A23E6C914.jpeg

CPC should have a spaghetti plot for the EPO/NPO.

Soooo much more useful for the PNW (as evidenced by last winter’s arctic blast during +PNA). ⛄

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Seems as if there is not much to be thankful for weather wise this year.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as if there is not much to be thankful for weather wise this year.

I am thankful for an active fall season, been too many dull November’s lately until this one. I should be hitting the one foot mark for rainfall in the next hour or so if the rain continues. 

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

CPC should have a spaghetti plot for the EPO/NPO.

Soooo much more useful for the PNW (as evidenced by last winter’s arctic blast during +PNA). ⛄

Were the January 1950, November 1985, December 1990, the winter of 92-93, January 1996, December 1998, November 2006, January 2007, November 2010, February 2011, January 2012, the winter of 16-17, February 2018 and 2019 +PNA events? I want a repeat of those!! 

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17 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Merry Day of Gluttony! May your waistbands be stretchy and your alcohol intake sufficient! 

😀

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Were the January 1950, November 1985, December 1990, the winter of 92-93, January 1996, December 1998, November 2006, January 2007, November 2010, February 2011, January 2012, the winter of 16-17, February 2018 and 2019 +PNA events? I want a repeat of those!! 

Positive in 1/1996, 12/1998, 11/2006, 1/2007, and 1/2012. Negative in 1/1950, 11/1985, 12/1990, 11/2010, 2/2011, 2/2018, and 2/2019.

Also positive 11/2014 and 2/2021!

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Positive in 1/1996, 12/1998, 11/2006, 1/2007, and 1/2012. Negative in 1/1950, 11/1985, 12/1990, 11/2010, 2/2011, 2/2018, and 2/2019.

Also positive 11/2014 and 2/2021!

Though there are several different methodologies for calculating EOF for PNA. Values vary depending which one you use.

One of several reasons I prefer NPO as the leading mode of variability in the modern era.

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