PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

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00z GFS Day 1

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Day 2

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Day 3 (Past 8 runs)

 

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Do you want just the Day 1-10 image, or the model trends? or both?

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Day 4

(Past 8 runs)

[The Swamp]

Color me impressed but it's down to 37 in The Swamp.

Could be another cold night.

Throw an extra blanky on the bed.

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Rainfall totals ending 10 PM Thanksgiving evening. Turkey time is dry for PDX.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Do you want just the Day 1-10 image, or the model trends? or both?

I like both!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Glad with all this rain we haven’t had any fires lately….oh wait

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Day 5

(Past 8 runs)

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Do you want just the Day 1-10 image, or the model trends? or both?

Trends are interesting.

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Do you want just the Day 1-10 image, or the model trends? or both?

Trends under like day 5 aren’t really needed, since not much changes usually. Unless something really interesting is coming.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Glad with all this rain we haven’t had any fires lately….oh wait

Did they spray it with gasoline first?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Trends under like day 5 aren’t really needed, since not much changes usually.

True.  6 to 10 day is where trends could be quite interesting...unless it's a major situation of some kind.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Glad with all this rain we haven’t had any fires lately….oh wait

It was Matt’s comments about the June heatwave, it’s causing things to spontaneously combust. 

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Day 6

(Past 8 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Did they spray it with gasoline first?

I was shocked to hear it also. Everything is so damp and it will go out quick most likely 

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Five months ago right now the models were looking quite hot.

Thankfully that event is in the rearview mirror.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Five months ago right now the models were looking quite hot.

And everybody was clowning on the GFS when it first latched on to the ridiculous heat. They kept clowning up until it actually verified. I genuinely feel like the GFS has been outperforming the Euro for a while in our neck of the woods. Anecdotal of course. 

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Day 7

(Past 8 runs)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

And everybody was clowning on the GFS when it first latched on to the ridiculous heat. They kept clowning up until it actually verified. I genuinely feel like the GFS has been outperforming the Euro for a while in our neck of the woods. Anecdotal of course. 

In Jan 2020 the GFS was the first model to launch onto the arctic blast, though it way exaggerated its intensity.

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Day 8

(Past 4 runs)

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In Jan 2020 the GFS was the first model to launch onto the arctic blast, though it way exaggerated its intensity.

It was such a tease though cause it was there is so many runs 

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Day 9'er

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 10

(Past 4 runs)

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

(Past 4 runs)

looks like we got a kink in the hose there

[snow_wizard]

This run has the same huge high pressure cell rolling off of Asia around day 8 or 9 just like the 18z.  The 12z was much weaker with that.

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00z GFS 10 Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

And everybody was clowning on the GFS when it first latched on to the ridiculous heat. They kept clowning up until it actually verified. I genuinely feel like the GFS has been outperforming the Euro for a while in our neck of the woods. Anecdotal of course. 

The 119 it was showing for SEA was still outlandish.  I did pretty well overall though.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This run has the same huge high pressure cell rolling off of Asia around day 8 or 9 just like the 18z.  The 12z was much weaker with that.

Exciting to see this in the 0z.

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Day 11

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

2 firehoses on this run for WA and 1 for OR.  The second one is chased by some pretty cold air.

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[snow_wizard]

The details on this run aren't as pretty as the 18z, but still interesting.  Tons of blocking coming up, and insane cold air over AK to tap into.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12, nah, but not like the Op beyond Day 6-7 holds much significance. Ensembles do however.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This run has the same huge high pressure cell rolling off of Asia around day 8 or 9 just like the 18z.  The 12z was much weaker with that.

Nice catch. What happens over Asia often has a significant role downstream over the NPAC/PNW.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 12, nah, but not like the Op beyond Day 6-7 holds much significance. Ensembles do however.

Yeah the Hawaii low is gone 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice catch. What happens over Asia often has a significant role downstream over the NPAC/PNW.

Are the models less tuned into whats going on in Asia and therefore have a tendency to be "surprised" more over there? I assume they arent able to access the same breadth and depth of data that they are from US/DevEuro, but perhaps thats more of a problem for mesoscale models and these day 5+ things are typically handled by satellite data? Just curious if anyone knows. 

[snow_wizard]

I have to say the evolution on the GFS isn't the most likely thing I've ever seen.  Some pretty odd looking stuff happens.  At least the right players are on the board.

[Deweydog]

Ugh…

Don’t tell me model inconsistency beyond 10 days is gonna be a thing this winter.