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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Positive in 1/1996, 12/1998, 11/2006, 1/2007, and 1/2012. Negative in 1/1950, 11/1985, 12/1990, 11/2010, 2/2011, 2/2018, and 2/2019.

Also positive 11/2014 and 2/2021!

1950, 1985, 1990. The big daddy’s were negative 

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20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

1950, 1985, 1990. The big daddy’s were negative 

Yes, and amplified too. No -PNA/+EPO configurations to be found.

The big ones were all +QBO as well. But that’s not surprising. 

 

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January 1950 was an insane anomaly. Full blown -PNA, yet without much of a -EPO component.

The fully realized, pure blooded expression of the +QBO/Niña mean state. Might never see that in our lifetimes. 

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8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Andrew enjoys hour hour 222.

I do. Great run. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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GFS Kuchera.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Another amazing early December I forgot about was 1909. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

man you must be old

You don't know the half of it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Pretty passable 12z GFS.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hmmmm

 

D220C158-AE8F-42B0-91E5-488C430341D2.gif

That seems exceedingly unlikely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

January 1950 was an insane anomaly. Full blown -PNA, yet without much of a -EPO component.

The fully realized, pure blooded expression of the +QBO/Niña mean state. Might never see that in our lifetimes. 

I read somewhere that January 1950 was the most anomalous blocking episode on the entire planet during the 20th century.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 

CC5917C7-43A4-417E-9E95-943A0AD67523.png

If it was that easy we would be perpetually buried in snow just from the actions of the people on this forum!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z GFS ensemble is a complete puzzle.  Totally out of synch with the operational and very different than any other ensemble mean.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the area hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

Wow yeah it’s trended significantly wetter here too…double what the 00z was showing through the end of the month last night. Looks like the 12z gfs is significantly wetter than the run last night too. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

Yeah....there are some significant changes with trajectory and other key factors.

Looks like more energy from the Western ridge is poised to bleed back into the high pressure cell approaching from Asia.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

If it’s spread out with an inch or so every day things hopefully won’t be too bad. If we see more damage on the lower mainland it would be pretty bad. Fuel rations and supply chain issues will maybe continue thru Christmas. 

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