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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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Yesterday I thought we would just barely crack 10” of rain for the month here…based on this morning’s runs exceeding 12” for the month seems within reach. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Reminded me of the Thanksgivings as a kid with wind and rain in my face as I was finishing phase 4.5 of the outside illumination holiday project this morning. Wind gust almost blew me off the ladder. Up to .33” on the day, 12.12” for the month. 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF dumps tons of rain and then looks just like the 12Z GEFS.    Horrible.

There’s a good shot sea tac passes December 2015 for the wettest month since November 2006. Getting into top 10 all time wet months seems likely…and wettest fall ever also looks pretty probable. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet.   Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December.  Lock it in! 

20211125_110159.jpg

20211125_110235.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet.   Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December.  Lock it in! 

20211125_110159.jpg

20211125_110235.jpg

in E WA and I still have mushrooms coming up on my back lawn

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Terrible ECMWF run.  This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Right now it looks like it’s the only friend we got

The GFS operational was pretty good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Terrible ECMWF run.  This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless.

Far from hopeless... a delay really feels like it will payoff from mid December onward in this situation.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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🦃🍗 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🥧🍴

12z GFS nice eye candy with the ridge merger at Day 7 resulting in a chilly warning shot and perhaps lowland snow potential. 12z GEFS hot turd no ridge merger with at times a La Nina pattern shows itself. 12z GEM ridge merger Day 6.5 to 7.5 promising. 12z CMCE long range much improved, but not ideal yet. 12z ECMWF was an unmitigated hot, flaming, burning, incinerated turd, but at least we manage strong east winds.

As far as Rainfall potential for northern Washington and southern BC it is literally a worst case scenario when adding on melting snowpack. Let's all root, hope, pray, chant, whatever for the models to show an abrupt pattern change to spare folks up north.

I have to think over the next 2-3 days model solutions will change, perhaps dramatically, but in what who knows. I just think the way models are currently handling the cut-off/kona low and evolution of the ridge potential merger is going to be very different by Saturday-Sunday 00z.

[Model Countdown]

Next up....
18z GFS in 2 hours 3 minutes

This evening....
00z GFS in 8 hours 3 minutes

Later this evening....
00z ECMWF in 10 hours 13 minutes

Even later this evening....
00z EPS(Pivotal) in 12 hours 57 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

  • Snow 3
  • Storm 1
  • Rain 1
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run.

I'll take some, I can take it. 

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS control run still on board...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9051200.png

so wait that looks like the 'no-no' aka arctic cold from AK?  '89 part deux?  I only know that because all the historians around here.  in '89 I was cleaning up from a Hurricane in SC (Hugo) and later had 18" of snow 2 days before xmas.  extremely rare in those parts

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

The river forecasts are trending worse up here.  Nothing like we saw a couple of weeks ago but still going the wrong direction.

Up to .89" here with occasional bouts of high wind.

 

BTW Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!!

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27 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run.

I'll take some, I can take it. 

 

lol looks like we’re gonna get a bunch too but not quite as much as up north. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Hasn’t rained too much the last couple hours but it looks like it’s going to pick up soon. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average.

We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. 

I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t  matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Non Traditional T-giving here.  Having crabs.  I guess they are from AK as WA season isn't open yet

I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier.

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t  matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. 

Me thinks it’ll be caught up by Christmas time. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier.

I guess its good its just the Wife and I.  Last year we did a standing rib roast.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You're missing out on our dry Santa Ana winds up there. Dewpoints less than -10 F. Highs in the 70s. It's a sauna.

Lived in Long Beach for 3 years before coming to WA.  We wouldn't get the wind as much, but we sure got the hot,dry air.  One year it was close to 100 at my Bro-in-laws place in La Habra on T-giving

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55 and sunny here 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier.

Turkey rules and is required for Thanksgiving. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Photographic proof of gorgeous weather. 

AEF6786C-D7EE-4642-B5E5-859F5645A246.jpeg

Yeah... very jealous as well.    Just keeps raining in western WA while the rest of the country is beautiful.    We have certainly earned our gloomy, depressing reputation for the last 2 months.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... very jealous as well.    Just keeps raining in western WA while the rest of the country is beautiful.    We have certainly earned our gloomy, depressing reputation for the last 2 months.

Serious question.  Does it really depress you that much?? Do you have any projects inside to do to keep you busy? We like going for drives when it's crappy out. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Serious question.  Does it really depress you that much?? Do you have any projects inside to do to keep you busy? We like going for drives when it's crappy out. 

Yeah... its getting depressing for me now. Particularly when it's been so sunny across the rest of the country.    Seems like we are always in the worst spot for a long time.   Oh well.  Life goes on.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Serious question.  Does it really depress you that much?? Do you have any projects inside to do to keep you busy? We like going for drives when it's crappy out. 

There is something to be said for a very dark wet and stormy day when you have nowhere to be, and inside the smell of Turkey, football on tv but with sound off and Christmas music and a fire going. AND no back/neck pain today which has become such a rarity for me anymore. 

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