Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, van city said:

Anybody willing to extrapolate the ICON?

Similar pattern to GFS. Very wet at times for about the northern half of Washington up into BC. A boat load of arctic air slides south, but doesn't make it further than central BC really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

YYJ had 12.2" of rain that month, and 13.9" with snow melt. It's currently at 9.8" (as of yesterday's total). Hitting the rain mark wouldn't be too much of a stretch with that juicy looking system coming in this weekend. Hitting the combined total with snow would be tough, barring an unforeseen snowstorm next Tuesday

Shawnigan had a ridiculous 20.37” in November 2006.  17.02” of rain. 

  • Rain 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’ll be close on if we can hit 1” of rain by midnight…probably will get close but not quite there. 

  • Rain 1

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

If only the merger was a couple days earlier and that block slid a bit further east into AK...just build a slide to funnel all that cold into my back yard :)

GFS was honestly quite close to delivering this run and even before Day 10, but I would be surprised if the goodies show up that soon. Ya never know!

00z ECMWF in 53 minutes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, North_County said:

Hmm....This looks much, much drier for N. Wa and S. BC.

Anomaly map looks much better.  Hope the ECMWF follows suit.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-qpf_anom_10day-8748800.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could certainly live with the 0z GFS.  A nice little cold shot about a week out and then just progressively colder from there.  Very decent progression.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW the 12z EPS control looked very much like the progression on the 0z GFS.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM Day 10 Nope

500h_anom.na.png

It could be a lot worse.  Potential there.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GEFS looks a bit better than 18z through D9...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8640800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8640800 (1).png

Nice improvement.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

The North Pacific view shows there must definitely be some members trying to move the ridge axis eastward, back over the Aleutians/GOA in the long range. Easy to see when comparing the axis to 18z.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8662400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8662400 (1).png

Agreed. Good post.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEFS improvement over the past two runs is actually pretty striking.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The North Pacific view shows there must definitely be some members trying to move the ridge axis eastward, back over the Aleutians/GOA in the long range. Easy to see when comparing the axis to 18z.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8662400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8662400 (1).png

And the 18z was better than the 12z.  Hmmmm....

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Night shift Rob?

  • Popcorn 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Even larger improvements when compared to 12z. This is nice...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8727200.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-8727200 (1).png

If we continue to see this kind of improvement on the next couple of runs we will be to something quite good.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Setting up a big January.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Looks like winter will slide east for a while.  9 times out of 10 it does.  Waive to it as it slides into Montana and east.

Maybe.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Setting up a big January.

I think we will see something solid in December.  It could be just a nice warning event, and then the big stuff in January.  Also possible December will be the big month.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just saw an article about the Coquihalla highway. Sounds like it will be closed for at least 2 months for repairs. Just crazy!

They got pummeled up there.  The videos are just unreal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will see something solid in December.  It could be just a nice warning event, and then the big stuff in January.  Also possible December will be the big month.

February could also be amazing.

  • Snow 4

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...