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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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Ensembles look like they could end up wetter than the fairly dry operational (In the mid range.).

  • Rain 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There is some hint of an upstream anticyclonic wavebreak during the first week of December across guidance. If it comes to fruition as advertised, it would make things interesting, and would separate this year from 2007/08 and 2011/12.  

But it’s far enough out there that it could easily be erroneous. 

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The extended range GEFS still insists on replacing the AK vortex with a ridge/blocking next month. Sends lots of cold into Western Canada as a result.

Hopefully it is onto something and not a mirage.

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Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux.

Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes in torques over Asia will have significant implications.

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting how we get one good run, and suddenly it is proclaimed the details are coming into focus. Let's all prepare for a Sober Uncle run. 

Actually like 3 in a row.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux.

Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes over Asia will have significant implications.

Thank you for being a voice of reason.  Easy to let hype sweep you up and keep you from objective observations.

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No doubt the GEFS continues to show a sharper GOA block early next month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux.

Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes in torques over Asia will have significant implications.

image.gif.198fa0dc9e5d09b6252f6b5dce6bd8fe.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

That won't be good for the early season Arctic Ice build.

It actually could be very good if we don’t evolve into +NAO/+TNH tendency, which is a warm advection machine into the CAB.

The worst melt seasons (2007, 2012, 2020) tend to follow strong +EPO winters with +NAM tendency (2006/07, 2011/12, and 2019/20). Such a pattern churns and flushes thicker/multiyear ice out of the Arctic thru the Fram Strait, leaving the ice pack more vulnerable to summer melt.

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Just now, Phil said:

It actually could be very good if we don’t evolve into +NAO/+TNH tendency, which is a warm advection machine into the CAB.

The worst melt seasons (2007, 2012, 2020) tend to follow strong +EPO winters with +NAM tendency (2006/07, 2011/12, and 2019/20). Such a pattern churns and flushes thicker/multiyear ice out of the Arctic thru the Fram Strait, leaving the ice pack more vulnerable to summer melt.

The best winter pattern for Arctic ice is actually -PNA/-NAO, with neutral to slightly positive EPO. In other words, the 1960s regime. Such a pattern shuts down warm advection into CAB and slows the NA side compaction, where it becomes vulnerable to flushing.  

But if NAO is positive, the same Pacific wave field can promote a hostile cross polar pressure gradient, compacting the ice in a vulnerable location north of Greenland. Even a modest NE-Canada/Greenland ridge can alleviate that, though.

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Ensemble goodies

GFS Ensemble Multi-Parameter.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 34 this morning. 

It was freezing or below here for about 9 hours last night / this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

You aren't going to find me complaining about this... All the major players are in play. 

1638770400-ZEObatLZjUU.png

A big key to all of this is how brutally cold AK gets before the PV gets displaced.  That really increases the chances for a satisfying outcome for us.  Would love see something like early December 1956 and then the big stuff in January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not worth much more than eye candy at this point, but that's the second straight GFS run to show more than a foot of snow for Seattle in the long range.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A big key to all of this is how brutally cold AK gets before the PV gets displaced.  That really increases the chances for a satisfying outcome for us.  Would love see something like early December 1956 and then the big stuff in January.

That early December 1956 event was pretty great, and no one ever talks about it. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Not worth much more than eye candy at this point, but that's the second straight GFS run to show more than a foot of snow for Seattle in the long range.

Yep best to not get your hopes up quite yet long way to go. It’s worth watching atleast. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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