Blizzard777 Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Very cool! Is that your camera? I might have to get one of those. Yes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Ensembles look like they could end up wetter than the fairly dry operational (In the mid range.). 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting how we get one good run, and suddenly it is proclaimed the details are coming into focus. Let's all prepare for a Sober Uncle run. One? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is a fun frame. 4 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: One? Great song. 3 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Low of 34 this morning. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 There is some hint of an upstream anticyclonic wavebreak during the first week of December across guidance. If it comes to fruition as advertised, it would make things interesting, and would separate this year from 2007/08 and 2011/12. But it’s far enough out there that it could easily be erroneous. 7 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is a fun frame. Gorgeous!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 I’m sure Chris will have lots of fun posting raccoon rug pull pics soon. 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Great song. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 GEFS 12z vs 06z for 18z - you can see in 6z the ridge starts to pull back in 6z, 12z keeps going 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 I need an Immigrant Song December.❄ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Hours 240-384 scream La Nina - quick fluctuation between the polar and subtropical jet. A ridge with varying strengths taking up permanent residence in the eastern Pacific could make for a fun December. 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 The extended range GEFS still insists on replacing the AK vortex with a ridge/blocking next month. Sends lots of cold into Western Canada as a result. Hopefully it is onto something and not a mirage. 6 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: But Druncle is so much more fun He can't pay his rent or buy food, but he always has tons of illegal fireworks and booze. 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow drift said: I need an Immigrant Song December.❄ Would it make the juice run down your leg? 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux. Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes in torques over Asia will have significant implications. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, Phil said: The extended range GEFS still insists on replacing the AK vortex with a ridge/blocking next month. Sends lots of cold into Western Canada as a result. Hopefully it is onto something and not a mirage. That won't be good for the early season Arctic Ice build. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting how we get one good run, and suddenly it is proclaimed the details are coming into focus. Let's all prepare for a Sober Uncle run. Actually like 3 in a row. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux. Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes over Asia will have significant implications. Thank you for being a voice of reason. Easy to let hype sweep you up and keep you from objective observations. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Would it make the juice run down your leg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GEFS looking stronger with the ridge versus 00z. Also like the look of the pinch off better... Rex block? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 No doubt the GEFS continues to show a sharper GOA block early next month. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Beware of ensemble mean artifacts. Can give the impression of stable wave field when it’s actually in flux. Predictability of this transition is could actually be quite low. Small changes in torques over Asia will have significant implications. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Anybody else notice this run showed almost 30 inches for Vancouver 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Rex block? Interesting runs ahead 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, GobBluth said: That won't be good for the early season Arctic Ice build. It actually could be very good if we don’t evolve into +NAO/+TNH tendency, which is a warm advection machine into the CAB. The worst melt seasons (2007, 2012, 2020) tend to follow strong +EPO winters with +NAM tendency (2006/07, 2011/12, and 2019/20). Such a pattern churns and flushes thicker/multiyear ice out of the Arctic thru the Fram Strait, leaving the ice pack more vulnerable to summer melt. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Late month is looking like a massive torch with highs around 50. This month should end up much warmer than average. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, Phil said: It actually could be very good if we don’t evolve into +NAO/+TNH tendency, which is a warm advection machine into the CAB. The worst melt seasons (2007, 2012, 2020) tend to follow strong +EPO winters with +NAM tendency (2006/07, 2011/12, and 2019/20). Such a pattern churns and flushes thicker/multiyear ice out of the Arctic thru the Fram Strait, leaving the ice pack more vulnerable to summer melt. The best winter pattern for Arctic ice is actually -PNA/-NAO, with neutral to slightly positive EPO. In other words, the 1960s regime. Such a pattern shuts down warm advection into CAB and slows the NA side compaction, where it becomes vulnerable to flushing. But if NAO is positive, the same Pacific wave field can promote a hostile cross polar pressure gradient, compacting the ice in a vulnerable location north of Greenland. Even a modest NE-Canada/Greenland ridge can alleviate that, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Ensemble goodies 4 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Ensemble goodies This shows snow for everybody in Washington and Oregon except for Mount Rainier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 12z Gem is much less promising than the gfs at day 10 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: 12z Gem is much less promising than the gfs at day 10 Its ok, nobody likes the GEM anyways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Low of 34 this morning. It was freezing or below here for about 9 hours last night / this morning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: You aren't going to find me complaining about this... All the major players are in play. A big key to all of this is how brutally cold AK gets before the PV gets displaced. That really increases the chances for a satisfying outcome for us. Would love see something like early December 1956 and then the big stuff in January. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Not worth much more than eye candy at this point, but that's the second straight GFS run to show more than a foot of snow for Seattle in the long range. 8 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A big key to all of this is how brutally cold AK gets before the PV gets displaced. That really increases the chances for a satisfying outcome for us. Would love see something like early December 1956 and then the big stuff in January. That early December 1956 event was pretty great, and no one ever talks about it. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Currently 33F and still dense fog. We were under dense fog advisory till 10am but now they extended till 12pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That early December 1956 event was pretty great, and no one ever talks about it. Had to look back at that winter in the records. One thing that stood out was how incredibly dry November was that year here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Not worth much more than eye candy at this point, but that's the second straight GFS run to show more than a foot of snow for Seattle in the long range. Yep best to not get your hopes up quite yet long way to go. It’s worth watching atleast. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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