PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was freezing or below here for about 9 hours last night / this morning.

It was foggy on and off here overnight…looks like we will get our first freeze in December. 

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That early December 1956 event was pretty great, and no one ever talks about it. 

 

1956-57 was very cold throughout and sometimes gets lost in the shuffle of our great winters. Probably because it was on the drier side and lacked any single massive snow event.

The early December event was quick but intense with snow down past Eugene (!). High in the teens at BLI, the 3rd earliest on record at that station. Then we briefly thawed out before going into an extended fake cold pattern in late December. Early January had some modest continental cold before the arctic stuff and snow hit in the middle of January and then the major arctic outbreak. PDX had 12 consecutive highs below freezing with that, which is 2nd all time behind 1930.

Then we topped it off with a pretty dynamic February, which included another very late season forgotten arctic event between 2/20-2/22. Pretty big ice storm for western OR with that and a lot of snow for the Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1956-57 was very cold throughout and sometimes gets lost in the shuffle of our great winters. Probably because it was on the drier side and lacked any single massive snow event.

The early December event was quick but intense with snow down past Eugene (!). High in the teens at BLI, the 3rd earliest on record at that station. Then we briefly thawed out before going into an extended fake cold pattern in late December. Early January had some modest continental cold before the arctic stuff and snow hit in the middle of January and then the major arctic outbreak. PDX had 12 consecutive highs below freezing with that, which is 2nd all time behind 1930. Then we topped it off with a pretty dynamic February, which included another very late season forgotten arctic event between 2/20-2/22. Pretty big ice storm for western OR with that and a lot of snow for the Seattle area.

Looks like Salem had 8.2" of snow with that early December 1956 event, basically two 4" snow events with a 34/18 day in between. 

Looks like Eugene had about 5" with the early December event. Eugene did really well with the January 1957 arctic event. Looks almost like a December 2013 situation where they had a 7" snow fall followed by some fairly outlier cold lows (-4). 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the pinch off was going well at the end of the ECMWF run.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the pinch off was going well at the end of the ECMWF run.

Euro vs GFS at hr240

[RentonHill]

Full euro run

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro vs GFS at hr240

Exactly the same the with that block west of Alaska.  

Normally that is not an ideal spot for blocking though... too far west.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO says F off. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1956-57 was very cold throughout and sometimes gets lost in the shuffle of our great winters. Probably because it was on the drier side and lacked any single massive snow event.

The early December event was quick but intense with snow down past Eugene (!). High in the teens at BLI, the 3rd earliest on record at that station. Then we briefly thawed out before going into an extended fake cold pattern in late December. Early January had some modest continental cold before the arctic stuff and snow hit in the middle of January and then the major arctic outbreak. PDX had 12 consecutive highs below freezing with that, which is 2nd all time behind 1930.

Then we topped it off with a pretty dynamic February, which included another very late season forgotten arctic event between 2/20-2/22. Pretty big ice storm for western OR with that and a lot of snow for the Seattle area.

Yup.  Great winter overall.  That January cold wave really kicked out some great mins up here, but not nearly the number of freezing highs that PDX had.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Full euro run

 

The way that GOA trough gets split in two at the end is good stuff.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Brother got a drone…..so up up and away above the fog

Damascus Oregon

Drones can do more than I thought!

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its a quick moving band of light rain breaking off from the main front.   It might rain a little for an hour or so but its probably not just going to start raining and keep raining all day.

It was light and brief. I was just surprised at how quickly it arrived. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO says F off. 

It's actually fine if you look closely.  

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely playing the extrapolation game with this one...

No doubt those pieces of high pressure are going to come together very nicely...assuming this is reality of course.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

It was light and brief. I was just surprised at how quickly it arrived. 

Radar showed it moved right over my area but nothing reached the ground and its much brighter again now with a little sun at times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually fine if you look closely.  

I'm mostly joking. We are a few days away from any sort of solid model consensus, even if things do turn out nicely. 

[The Blob]

Best night shift so far this season. 

[Deweydog]

11 years ago today it was Monday and it snowed.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks very much like the operational run... so it will extrapolate for us after 10 day.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS looks very much like the operational run... so it will extrapolate for us after 10 day.  

Not how it works, buddy.

Your attempts to kill my easel sales aren’t gonna fly. Consider yourself reported.

[RentonHill]

 

[RentonHill]

EPS vs GEFS at hr 288

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not how it works, buddy.

Your attempts to kill my easel sales aren’t gonna fly. Consider yourself reported.

Extrapolation season is definitely well underway. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oof 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble is a step back sadly. Way further north.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Extrapolation season is definitely well underway. 

Yup. It and MASSIVE ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT season run concurrently. Exciting times.

[Deweydog]

Just food for thought…

We started seeing some false starts in the models right around Thanksgiving 13 years ago.

 

[TT-SEA]

12z EPS is not terrible at the end of the run... but not there yet either.     It could end up being a glancing shot of cool air but sets the stage for something later on in December.  

 

[RentonHill]

EPS v GEFS end of run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least maybe we get ski season going in Oregon. 

[Deweydog]

Bye fog.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 56F. Gonna mow the lawn.

[BLI snowman]

Sub-40 rain!

[bainbridgekid]

11 years ago today was probably the strongest arctic front in Seattle (and especially Kitsap County) since 1990.

I was driving home from Bellingham to Bainbridge for Thanksgiving that day and it took over 7 hours. 4 hours of that was to get from UW to the ferry in Downtown Seattle. Came home to more knocked down trees than I've ever seen on the island (even more than the Hanukkah Eve storm in 2006.) Meteorologically it was fascinating because the surface low came in significantly stronger and further North than anticipated which caused both much more snow and MUCH stronger winds than expected. I remember the WRF that morning gave zero snow North of Tacoma and Seattle ended up getting 4-6".

Anyone else have special memories from that storm?

[Randyc321]

17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

11 years ago today was probably the strongest arctic front in Seattle (and especially Kitsap County) since 1990.

I was driving home from Bellingham to Bainbridge for Thanksgiving that day and it took over 7 hours. 4 hours of that was to get from UW to the ferry in Downtown Seattle. Came home to more knocked down trees than I've ever seen on the island (even more than the Hanukkah Eve storm in 2006.) Meteorologically it was fascinating because the surface low came in significantly stronger and further North than anticipated which caused both much more snow and MUCH stronger winds than expected. I remember the WRF that morning gave zero snow North of Tacoma and Seattle ended up getting 4-6".

Anyone else have special memories from that storm?

I sure do.

Was in East Bremerton at that time up on John Carlson hill.  About 375' if I remember right.  That was a good house for snow during the late 2000's.

But anyway, I remember it being very cold and snowing several inches powder, and nervous that the wind was coming.  We had discussed it ad nauseum on the forum.  Wind storm was not a surprise.  It was beautiful and then shortly after dark the wind hit.  And I mean hit!  The first blast came like a bomb.  It was awesome, for a while.  The windows went completely white from all the powder coming off of the roof once, and the windows were shaking.  Then it was howling like mad.  Five minutes later, poof, out goes the power.  And so it was for five days.  Five very cold days without a generator.  We had a gas stove (lifesaver) and a fireplace without an insert.  Cold times.

[TT-SEA]

50 and still dry in North Bend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just saw the EURO weeklies... Gonna be a fun winter. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

A big key to all of this is how brutally cold AK gets before the PV gets displaced.  That really increases the chances for a satisfying outcome for us.  Would love see something like early December 1956 and then the big stuff in January.

I’m not sure I agree with that. At the very least it’s a double edged sword.

Your cold advection source is not Alaska to begin with.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw the EURO weeklies... Gonna be a fun winter. 

OK... I will post the updated weeklies.    Ripe with opportunities!