PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Omegaraptor]

@SilverFallsAndrew Mark Nelsen says there was 4” of snow at Timberline on 11/16 in 2016. That November there was really no consistent snowpack at any of the ski resorts. Then Timberline had a 100” base by Christmas.

Pattern’s gonna flip big time soon enough!

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw the EURO weeklies... Gonna be a fun winter. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG did make it to 28 this morning at least. Compensate for their afternoon torch. 

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

OK... I will post the updated weeklies.    Ripe with opportunities!

 

gdi

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Drones can do more than I thought!

Unsure if they linked drones with VR headsets yet so as you rotate your head around the drone points in that direction.  Cool things to come!!! 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great song.

My favorite Metallica song!! 
Wow! You know the models are looking good when I do some actual work for a few hours and then come back to the forum and there are 130+ new posts !!

[snow drift]

and 35 here, it's hard to beat late November sunshine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

On the subject of the weeklies - they do look quite good for continued opportunities of cold/snow.

On the flip side I will say that last winter the weeklies kept showing a promising pattern in the LR that never really came to fruition, at least until later in winter. I think they have a tendency to default to the base background state/La Nina when it gets out a ways into the time period.

Hopefully that won't be the case this winter but might be something to keep in mind. 

IMO they seem a little more promising, and sooner this winter... Last winter IIRC it was more the last 2 weeks of the weeklies always showed promise, now it is throughout, and the beginning of that improvement has been relatively consistent. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

On the subject of the weeklies - they do look quite good for continued opportunities of cold/snow.

On the flip side I will say that last winter the weeklies kept showing a promising pattern in the LR that never really came to fruition, at least until later in winter. I think they have a tendency to default to the base background state/La Nina when it gets out a ways into the time period.

Hopefully that won't be the case this winter but might be something to keep in mind. 

Yes, that's true. The Climate Prediction Center tends to do the same thing. They always default to a textbook la niña pattern. I call that lazy forecasting.

[ShawniganLake]

Is Everyone seated for the 18z GFS?

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Is Everyone seated for the 18z GFS?

OMG I forgot it was already time. Sneaks up on us so fast now.

[The Blob]

19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

and 35 here, it's hard to beat late November sunshine.

Especially when I shines onto your bed and you fall asleep.

[Deweydog]

Had some ice pellets here about an hour ago. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I just got home. Both the 12z ECMWF Op run and EPS look very good Day 7-10 progression and just after it we were to extrapolate a but further out showing a ridge merger and the trough energy splitting into a possible kona low. 12z GFS Op was great long range. 12z GEFS was pretty decent, a touch colder, ridge needs to migrate further east. 12z GEM Op not quite there yet. 12z CMCE ridge is a bit further west. Fun model riding ahead and some crazy cold runs are possible. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt those pieces of high pressure are going to come together very nicely...assuming this is reality of course.

Exactly. The trough splitting cutting off possible kona low. Ridge merger definitely pulling the evolving block complex near ~160-155 W.

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Had some ice pellets here about an hour ago. 

 

[snow_wizard]

The weeklies are out and they look good.  The mean shows sustained -PNA with neutral EPO and the control is one cold blast after another.

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Had some ice pellets here about an hour ago. 

Warning shot. 

[snow_wizard]

The weeklies individual ensemble members are much improved for snow vs the updates last week.  The mean shows 10 inches now.  That's the beginning of where it usually means we have a legit shot at something.  It also appears that about 22 out of 50 members show it getting solidly cold at some point between now and early January.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weeklies individual ensemble members are much improved for snow vs the updates last week.  The mean shows 10 inches now.  That's the beginning of where it usually means we have a legit shot at something.  It also appears that about 22 out of 50 members show it getting solidly cold at some point between now and early January.

Would a 44% chance of cold Between November 21 and January 10th be much higher than normal?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weeklies individual ensemble members are much improved for snow vs the updates last week.  The mean shows 10 inches now.  That's the beginning of where it usually means we have a legit shot at something.  It also appears that about 22 out of 50 members show it getting solidly cold at some point between now and early January.

28 out 50 don’t though... 

[Anti Marine Layer]

45 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Is Everyone seated for the 18z GFS?

Are seat belts required?

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Are seat belts required?

Seatbelts and roads are optional on this ride.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG did make it to 28 this morning at least. Compensate for their afternoon torch. 

57 is toasty in PNW for late November.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Would a 44% chance of cold Between November 21 and January 10th be much higher than normal?

15 out of 50 in baseball will make you an all star.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

The fun stuff might still be a ways out into the LR but we can watch the development of the ridge off of Asia a little closer in the mid term.

18z GFS coming in a bit more amplified with that feature versus 12z...

Those butterflies in China better be flapping those wings.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The fun stuff might still be a ways out into the LR but we can watch the development of the ridge off of Asia a little closer in the mid term.

18z GFS coming in a bit more amplified with that feature versus 12z...

But also a more of a positive tilt.

[TT-SEA]

51 and still dry out here... but raining just to the west in Issaquah.    This next band should finally push the rain out here.  I assume we still have dry air in place from the offshore flow last night.     Its been a bonus dry day so far.  

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The fun stuff might still be a ways out into the LR but we can watch the development of the ridge off of Asia a little closer in the mid term.

18z GFS coming in a bit more amplified with that feature versus 12z...

Yep. This is exactly where the 12z ECMWF was going as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Day 11

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11.5

[Gradient Keeper]

This run may drop the cold trough over us far better than sliding it further offshore like 12z GFS.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

This run may drop the cold trough over us far better than sliding it further offshore like 12z GFS.

Sure looks like it! I hate to see those deep troughs miss us.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12

[TacomaWaWx]

46/34 today 0.02” of rain so far. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow drift]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weeklies are out and they look good.  The mean shows sustained -PNA with neutral EPO and the control is one cold blast after another.

Bring it!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Christensen87]

The sweet sweet eye candy in the long range. Aaaaand I’m officially getting excited.