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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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0.27” now today. Have gotten about 20% of our monthly total in these first 3 1/2 days of November now. Think we’re going to be above normal rainfall again this month. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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GFS seems to be trending wetter for next week the past few runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Tuesday storm is back 😁

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Early November 2006 redux?!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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57 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Ownership of this house was officially exchanged yesterday, but noticed the original for sale by owner listing just popped back up, that needs to get taken off (lol). That'd be funny if we get new calls from locals asking if the deal didn't go through. We're leaving tomorrow I think.

Good luck and safe travels!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

But I have been told that the gradient isn't real and the forecast maps show Oregon getting 27'' of rain in the next (insert timeframe beyond the believable range here). 

Literally no one said anything about that much rain. Models look good but as expected the posts are the same from you lol. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not at all... but it might be less blocky.     For example... the 1998-2001 Nina period was during the ascent of solar cycle 23.   Not sure if there is even a connection between solar activity and the jet stream... but the jet does seem to be more active during high solar periods.    I prefer low solar.   

Blocking=🌞

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7 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

But I have been told that the gradient isn't real and the forecast maps show Oregon getting 27'' of rain in the next (insert timeframe beyond the believable range here). 

Don't look to be many dry days coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Ownership of this house was officially exchanged yesterday, but noticed the original for sale by owner listing just popped back up, that needs to get taken off (lol). That'd be funny if we get new calls from locals asking if the deal didn't go through. We're leaving tomorrow I think.

Good luck and have a safe trip.

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Ownership of this house was officially exchanged yesterday, but noticed the original for sale by owner listing just popped back up, that needs to get taken off (lol). That'd be funny if we get new calls from locals asking if the deal didn't go through. We're leaving tomorrow I think.

At least I’ll have someone to talk to in my thread instead of myself. :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Gusts 50-60 mph down Puget Sound.

 

index.png

Those low res maps very rarely show winds that strong here. Usually they show way weaker winds than the high-res models.

Course the 6z had the storm like 15mb weaker and 250 miles further South so fairly a moot point at this point still.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

But I have been told that the gradient isn't real and the forecast maps show Oregon getting 27'' of rain in the next (insert timeframe beyond the believable range here). 

You have been creating a boogey man that doesn’t exist on here. We all know about the southerly gradient for the drought. 

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So much drought... I get it, it won't really be this wet. But better to have the models showing this than bone dry conditions. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So much drought... I get it, it won't really be this wet. But better to have the models showing this than bone dry conditions. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

I bet you between $0 and $100 that the 16 day total at KPDX will be between 1 and 1000% of that. Any takers?

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I bet you between $0 and $100 that the 16 day total at KPDX will be between 1 and 1000% of that. Any takers?

I will put $0 on the 1,000,000th percentile!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Still lots of catch up to do.

Definitely, I think Washington and Oregon are going to be in the clear by the time spring rolls around but I’m not sure about California. Pretty amazing how that AR in California just put a dent in it. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

South wind has made it in.

It is getting breezy up here too just in the last 30 minutes. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So much drought... I get it, it won't really be this wet. But better to have the models showing this than bone dry conditions. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

I predict a Tim jackpot.

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Great video near Hansville (Skunk Bay Weather) of the short period of clearing.

 

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Woke up randomly at about 5:30 a.m. to clear skies and the aurora borealis visible to the north. Managed to get a few pictures before the clouds came back in and sunrise spoiled the show.

2021_11_AuroraBorealis_004.thumb.jpg.23101594ba1bf68b79f2bdb914c82f06.jpg

2021_11_AuroraBorealis_027.thumb.jpg.e870de6c9718a326f49bf282b22a76c4.jpg

Wow!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In more earth related news, I don't know how frequently this happens in the Coastal Ranges of BC and Alaska, but it looks like the Chugach got slammed by that atmospheric river up in AK.

https://snowbrains.com/did-alaskas-chugach-range-just-get-over-28-feet-of-snow-in-3-days/

Saw the article and thought I would share. I wish they had more remote snow measuring stations in mountain ranges around the world to see actually what crazy snowfall records there would be.

Look at this NWS point forecast!

2021_11_04_crazySnowPointForecast.thumb.jpeg.d4157c3e82e0b39f3692412761a9de2b.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro looks a bit breezy for Saturday. Gusts up to almost 60 mph in Seattle.

breezysaturday.png

At second glance, these gusts look a little suspect. Here's the MSLP map for that same frame. Not much showing that would cause those level of winds. The frame before this showed a 1001mb low off the tip of the Olympic Peninsula, which doesn't sound particularly noteworthy. Hmm...

index (1).png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Well we might finally see some gusts over 30mph here.

EC Wind Gusts.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

In more earth related news, I don't know how frequently this happens in the Coastal Ranges of BC and Alaska, but it looks like the Chugach got slammed by that atmospheric river up in AK.

https://snowbrains.com/did-alaskas-chugach-range-just-get-over-28-feet-of-snow-in-3-days/

Saw the article and thought I would share. I wish they had more remote snow measuring stations in mountain ranges around the world to see actually what crazy snowfall records there would be.

Look at this NWS point forecast!

2021_11_04_crazySnowPointForecast.thumb.jpeg.d4157c3e82e0b39f3692412761a9de2b.jpeg

That's 16-17 feet in 24 hours. Holy sh*t.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Models took a pretty significant change this morning for late next week...Ridge looks to breakdown a lot quicker.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro still showing some snow in the air for some lowland locations this weekend.

Actually shows me being in the dark blue but thinking that is resolution issues. 

index (2).png

Wth, ya, no way I see 3 inches of snow, let alone a single snowflake.

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