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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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Dear lort, just caught the 12z GFS.  Here's hoping that mass of cold air towards the clown range verifies.  Nothing better than very cold air locked up in interior BC to get reinforcing shots of cold for the PNW. Funny, the timing looks to jive with what a number of the Weekly and GFS ext forecasts have shown.

Here is the most recent Weekly control for the week starting the 15th.

1640044800-T4li27jr9zE.png

and the ensemble mean.

1640044800-6tUd0XnIko0.png

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5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dear lort, just caught the 12z GFS.  Here's hoping that mass of cold air towards the clown range verifies.  Nothing better than very cold air locked up in interior BC to get reinforcing shots of cold for the PNW. Funny, the timing looks to jive with what a number of the Weekly and GFS ext forecasts have shown.

Here is the most recent Weekly control for the week starting the 15th.

1640044800-T4li27jr9zE.png

and the ensemble mean.

1640044800-6tUd0XnIko0.png

Actually the most recent one comes out today.  This is from last Thursday

 

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8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dear lort, just caught the 12z GFS.  Here's hoping that mass of cold air towards the clown range verifies.  Nothing better than very cold air locked up in interior BC to get reinforcing shots of cold for the PNW. Funny, the timing looks to jive with what a number of the Weekly and GFS ext forecasts have shown.

Here is the most recent Weekly control for the week starting the 15th.

1640044800-T4li27jr9zE.png

and the ensemble mean.

1640044800-6tUd0XnIko0.png

Hudson Bay is still Ice free for the most part and later than normal.  I wonder if that high pressure is forcing the most extreme cold over the Pacific and moderating it before it gets to us?

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Actually the most recent one comes out today.  This is from last Thursday

 

I mean, you're wrong until 1 today as I seem to have misplaced my DeLorean to get things from the future to make it the most recent.  I'll follow up when the future become present and offer up the most recent images ;).

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22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Hudson Bay is still Ice free for the most part and later than normal.  I wonder if that high pressure is forcing the most extreme cold over the Pacific and moderating it before it gets to us?

Alaska is in the icebox currently. We'll see what happens. Maybe they can set some record lows. Sometimes that works out for us later on.

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3 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Stop posting Oregon only maps. No one ******* cares. The WA map covers 99% of this forum's members, but the ones you keep posting cut out half of them for no reason. I'm so glad you never get snow. You are subhuman scum.

Wow... I hope this was meant to be a joke.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Euro looks like one of those awful GEM runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

First week of December looks pretty mild, which takes us to mid month.

Here is an interesting snippet from the NWS Spokane forecast discussion:Thursday night through Sunday: A weak cold front Thursday night will lower temperatures for the end of the work week below near record values, but will still remain well above average. Light precipitation will linger over the mountains, but the main event will be over by this time. Moving into the weekend, some ensembles are beginning to suggest the possibility of a pattern change with the ridge becoming more amplified over the Pacific. A resultant northwesterly flow aloft would potentially open the door for cooler systems to move into the PNW by the late weekend into the next work week. Fingers crossed! vmt

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

This is the same guy who was disappointed when PDX dropped from 115 to 114 on 6/28/21.

Pretty sure he’s trolling.

I thought we were all disappointed in that. Like...come on nature at least put some effort in!

(This post was made to be facetious. The heat sucked and a lot of people died.)

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF shows that Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are dry in the Seattle area.   Hard to believe.

Fall cleanup due as most of the leaves have fallen around my house….gutters probably need another cleaning.   Hope we do have some dry days. 
 

56*  and sitting at 9.61 for the month 

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52 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Stop posting Oregon only maps. No one ******* cares. The WA map covers 99% of this forum's members, but the ones you keep posting cut out half of them for no reason. I'm so glad you never get snow. You are subhuman scum.

I for one appreciate the offbeat humor (hopefully?)

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I for one appreciate the offbeat humor (hopefully?)

Honestly hard to tell if that was actually serious or not…even if it was a joke kinda seemed like a weird way to go about it. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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60F and partly cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

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17 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Fall cleanup due as most of the leaves have fallen around my house….gutters probably need another cleaning.   Hope we do have some dry days. 
 

56*  and sitting at 9.61 for the month 

my dudes are here doing that right now...  kinda late but gave them time to hit the yard and gutters twice.  I'm getting leaf guard next year.

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EC paints a grim snowfall situation.

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

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