Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Recommended Posts

Nice AR on day 9

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We’re looking at a major snowstorm for Whatcom County north still a little over 8 days out. Definitely been consistently showing up on the models. Gotta keep an eye on this 

4DEFCFEA-E845-43D1-AB9C-7A98A4451337.jpeg

Going to need the ECMWF on board... 12Z was not there.   Maybe the 00Z run will pick it up. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-9051200 (1).png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We’re looking at a major snowstorm for Whatcom County north still a little over 8 days out. Definitely been consistently showing up on the models. Gotta keep an eye on this 

4DEFCFEA-E845-43D1-AB9C-7A98A4451337.jpeg

Temps never get below freezing in Whatcom County during this event, except the mountains of course.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
This feels sooo much like 2008 it's not even funny!
00z ECMWF in 56 minutes

Could be.   Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things.  

  • Like 2
  • lol 1
  • Snow 1
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice run. Jim’s going to go bonkers.

  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could be.   Matt insists that its coming in the second half of December and its hard to argue with his intuition on these things.  

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Troll 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

Those are just running jokes.    He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes based mostly on gut instinct.  

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Those are just running jokes.    He does really well predicting large scale pattern changes.

Me or Matt?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The LR GFS never fails to do something special.

Yeah... its just wildly extreme in the long range on most runs since the upgrade.   Makes for good conversation but not much else.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Actually both of you in general.

But you did not do so well this past summer.   ;)

If I were perfect I wouldn’t be human. 😶

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 06Z GFS last night showed 105 inches of snow in Hood River over the next 2 weeks... the new 00Z run is down to just 24 inches there over the same time period.     Something tells me the 06Z run will be back up over 100 inches.  👍

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice run tonight!  It basically turns much cooler on Thursday and then just gets colder from there.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen.

  • Excited 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes. That intuition has been Phil-level infallible. So many frozen turkeys and white MLK days over the years.

No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens.  He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months.  There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it.  When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No action on the models yet. Hopefully the night shift can make the magic happen.

Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human 😉

  • Excited 1
  • lol 1
  • Troll 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens.  He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months.  There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it.  When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot.

Lol I think he talked about it in like January 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not horrible but not crazy. Not yet.

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8230400.png

Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run.  FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time.  Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Whatever man you dont need snow you sub human 😉

Our electric company is called SUB. Always makes me chuckle.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The canadian sure sucked.

Not that bad, and way better than last night's run.  Anyway....it's not as chilly with the first shot later this week so it won't take long to see which model is closer to right.  The GFS has been pretty darn consistent overall.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty darn solid, but I think it kind of understates the way things look at the 500mb level on this run.  FWIW the recent week of cool weather we had came out quite a bit cooler than the GFS meteograms showed ahead of time.  Also...check out mins for stations like McChord and it will look more impressive.

You can count on the GFS being too warm with ridgy periods in the warm season and too cold with troughy periods in the cold season.     The ECMWF and EPS seem to be far superior for temp guidance beyond 2 or 3 days.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice AR on day 9

One of these times an AR is going to mix with some cold air if this keeps up.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

SSW coming in mid december?  cold Jan?

Wouldn't that be something.  Some moderate cold and snow in December and then just crushed in January.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This run has quite a remarkable N to S gradient with the cool period late this week and this weekend.  At one point 850s slope from -5 over SEA to +5 around Eugene.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 and clear. So unbelievably mild. About a week from a real pattern change towards winter up here.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS is on a huge roll with January.  The average of the last 12 runs is about the best I've seen yet.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...