PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 43F with some light rain. Currently 45F with moderate rain.

[Phil]

The MJO is entering a cycle of constructive interference w/ the low pass/niña background state. Indo-Pacific convection/WC tightening and AAM removal at this point in the seasonal cycle is indicative of rossby wave amplification across the NPAC-WHEM sector, given in-situ transports.

I suspect an amplified pattern will establish mid-month, probably week-3? It probably won’t favor the west/PNW initially, but the structure of the blocking could/should become increasingly favorable with time, and the first window of high potential now comes into view, starting mid-December. At least I think so? Nothing is a given but I’m interested in that timeframe.

[RentonHillTC]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

2005, just like Jim has been saying the whole time

[Timmy Supercell]

Also been mid-40's here. Not ready for the 35 ish degree rain yet. 

[Kolk1604]

How do you guys feel about La Nina being here right now? I feel like she always shows up late

 

[RentonHillTC]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

How do you guys feel about La Nina being here right now? I feel like she always shows up late

 

Thats crazy different! What sort of impacts will the cooler waters around us generally expect to have? 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

How do you guys feel about La Nina being here right now? I feel like she always shows up late

 

Didn't it start like in the last few weeks of Winter last season?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

2005, just like Jim has been saying the whole time

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

[RentonHillTC]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

53 here this morning... and it looks like it will rain this afternoon.    ECMWF was much more consistent on that idea and better than the GFS

Agree...maybe a sign its getting its footing again after being a waffler with the previous few weeks. The King returns from his vacation in time for winter.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thats crazy different! What sort of impacts will the cooler waters around us generally expect to have? 

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like November 2005 was the coolest November in the past 20 years at SLE, will be interesting to see how this one goes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO 3.4 region clocks in at -1.1C this week. I bet NDJ ONI ends up clocking in around -1.3C or so, similar to last year. 

[Cloud]

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend break. Now it’s back to business as usual. What an insane 6z run, extremely wet. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Only the good analogs count at this point in the year.    The rest are ignored.  

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

[Cloud]

15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

2005, just like Jim has been saying the whole time

Is this a troll post or??? Has Jim been wanting a 2005 analog? If so, why? That winter was extremely piss poor. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

Probably not... I see Redding only had 0.38" of rain in October that year. So it wasn't exactly the same. I still think it's humorous that the #'s for SLE were pretty much exactly the same. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

Snowdrift loves January 2006.

[Requiem]

This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice to see KMAX just about 100% filled in before Winter. 

[Cloud]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

La Nina means more severe weather in the middle of the country... that is not being driven by the water off the PNW coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first 3 weeks of December 2005 were very cold. Then we paid for it dearly in January. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

Too bad it's next Tuesday, but at least its hours 186 and not 384... 

So we got this Thursday, Sunday and now next Tuesday? Wonder what the 12z Euro will say

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z wants to give us our first flakes of the year early Sunday morning. Probably a sticking snow level around 2000-2500' down here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

We can't forget the beastly March trough. 

[Cloud]

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Was totally clear this morning up in the islands…noticed the increasing high clouds when I got to anacortes. I’m here on whidbey island south of coupville now and it’s cloudy here. Getting ready to take the ferry to port Townsend got lucky again being able to get off orcas island first try on the ferry. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

[Cloud]

October recap for SEA. Mostly cooler than average. Also set a record low and a new daily rain totals.  Came very close to setting a record high as well. Rainy/wet overall.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

There was a pretty significant South Sound special on December 1-2. Olympia and Tacoma got about 6" apiece. Seattle was virtually shut out, though. Tim got in on that of course being in the foothills.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

If I am remembering correctly... it was from a deformation zone behind a departing low that hit central and east King and Pierce counties hard.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

I had to go dig it up. I can see why… the first 2 weeks were mostly cold and chilly. 13/17 nights were below freezing. It was an impressive stretch but this type of cold does very little for me so it’s probably why I didn’t remember it. I rather it be cold and snowy than cold and sunny. 

[RentonHillTC]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I had to go dig it up. I can see why… the first 2 weeks were mostly cold and chilly. 13/17 nights were below freezing. It was an impressive stretch but this type of cold does very little for me so it’s probably why I didn’t remember it. I rather it be cold and snowy than cold and sunny. 

How long have you been at your current location/BFI?

[Cloud]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

How long have you been at your current location/BFI?

Exactly 30 years this year! Our family moved here when I was 6 years old!

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

Yes, I think that was Mark's first ever blog. Big WSW bust for PQR. They were banking on a 1/1/2004 repeat.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully the EC can show something interesting for the south valley. The GFS was boring and the wind events too far north.

[Timmy Supercell]

'05-06 was the season at our Hillsboro apartments we had to fix a water leak after the heavy December rains. Water ran down the wall in my room. Then I think it was that same winter a pregnant raccoon got access to the attic and the management thought we were making up stories. It ended up having babies and too bad I couldn't get video of them being carried down the latter. 

There were a couple days I swear it rained 3 inches and didn't stop until the next morning. 

[Timmy Supercell]

39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, I think that was Mark's first ever blog. Big WSW bust for PQR. They were banking on a 1/1/2004 repeat.

That week after winter break was fun stuff, watching the ticker tape on the news for school closures. I have a feeling kids nowadays won't get to experience that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That week after winter break was fun stuff, watching the ticker tape on the news for school closures. I have a feeling kids nowadays won't get to experience that.

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

Adding snow days to the end of the school year I don't think started until just a decade ago. Up to when I was graduating school districts always had the same dates they end school for us. It was like the first week or so of June.

[GHweatherChris]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

So.... you don't like it there?

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

How do you guys feel about La Nina being here right now? I feel like she always shows up late

 

Appears we're in the most -PDO regime we've been in quite awhile.

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

'05-06 was the season at our Hillsboro apartments we had to fix a water leak after the heavy December rains. Water ran down the wall in my room. Then I think it was that same winter a pregnant raccoon got access to the attic and the management thought we were making up stories. It ended up having babies and too bad I couldn't get video of them being carried down the latter. 

There were a couple days I swear it rained 3 inches and didn't stop until the next morning. 

It’s far worse when a pregnant raccoon gives birth on the floor of your red Prius.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So.... you don't like it there?

I'm grateful that my wife and her family saved me from the nightmare I was living in. Wouldn't trade that for the world. They seem to like it here and my mother in law who owns the property had a heart attack a month ago and she can't do much physically and can only be on her feet for short amounts of time. So it's probly best for her to retire and my goal is for us to move. Even if it's just somewhere like Bend, anywhere that has a better chance of seeing interesting weather than here.