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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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Looks like we got down to 43F with some light rain. Currently 45F with moderate rain.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The MJO is entering a cycle of constructive interference w/ the low pass/niña background state. Indo-Pacific convection/WC tightening and AAM removal at this point in the seasonal cycle is indicative of rossby wave amplification across the NPAC-WHEM sector, given in-situ transports.

I suspect an amplified pattern will establish mid-month, probably week-3? It probably won’t favor the west/PNW initially, but the structure of the blocking could/should become increasingly favorable with time, and the first window of high potential now comes into view, starting mid-December. At least I think so? Nothing is a given but I’m interested in that timeframe.

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

2005, just like Jim has been saying the whole time

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

53 here this morning... and it looks like it will rain this afternoon.    ECMWF was much more consistent on that idea and better than the GFS

Agree...maybe a sign its getting its footing again after being a waffler with the previous few weeks. The King returns from his vacation in time for winter.

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thats crazy different! What sort of impacts will the cooler waters around us generally expect to have? 

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like November 2005 was the coolest November in the past 20 years at SLE, will be interesting to see how this one goes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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ENSO 3.4 region clocks in at -1.1C this week. I bet NDJ ONI ends up clocking in around -1.3C or so, similar to last year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Only the good analogs count at this point in the year.    The rest are ignored.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

Probably not... I see Redding only had 0.38" of rain in October that year. So it wasn't exactly the same. I still think it's humorous that the #'s for SLE were pretty much exactly the same. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_31.png

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

La Nina means more severe weather in the middle of the country... that is not being driven by the water off the PNW coast.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The first 3 weeks of December 2005 were very cold. Then we paid for it dearly in January. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   😀

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

😁

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_31.png

Too bad it's next Tuesday, but at least its hours 186 and not 384... 

So we got this Thursday, Sunday and now next Tuesday? Wonder what the 12z Euro will say

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12z wants to give us our first flakes of the year early Sunday morning. Probably a sticking snow level around 2000-2500' down here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

We can't forget the beastly March trough. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

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Was totally clear this morning up in the islands…noticed the increasing high clouds when I got to anacortes. I’m here on whidbey island south of coupville now and it’s cloudy here. Getting ready to take the ferry to port Townsend got lucky again being able to get off orcas island first try on the ferry. 

99E0C0A6-B426-4A41-B13F-FDF5E8874031.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

There was a pretty significant South Sound special on December 1-2. Olympia and Tacoma got about 6" apiece. Seattle was virtually shut out, though. Tim got in on that of course being in the foothills.

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting stuff with the 2005 talk this morning, even Tim had 17” in December? And mostly cold? I vaguely remember it.

Did SEA somehow missed out that year or something? SEA recorded a whopping 1.8” of snow that year. 

If I am remembering correctly... it was from a deformation zone behind a departing low that hit central and east King and Pierce counties hard.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

I had to go dig it up. I can see why… the first 2 weeks were mostly cold and chilly. 13/17 nights were below freezing. It was an impressive stretch but this type of cold does very little for me so it’s probably why I didn’t remember it. I rather it be cold and snowy than cold and sunny. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I had to go dig it up. I can see why… the first 2 weeks were mostly cold and chilly. 13/17 nights were below freezing. It was an impressive stretch but this type of cold does very little for me so it’s probably why I didn’t remember it. I rather it be cold and snowy than cold and sunny. 

How long have you been at your current location/BFI?

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a massive snow bust for PDX in late November, I think the 30th. Mark Nelsen called the bust, if I recall. Matt Zaffino went all in. 

Yes, I think that was Mark's first ever blog. Big WSW bust for PQR. They were banking on a 1/1/2004 repeat.

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Hopefully the EC can show something interesting for the south valley. The GFS was boring and the wind events too far north.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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'05-06 was the season at our Hillsboro apartments we had to fix a water leak after the heavy December rains. Water ran down the wall in my room. Then I think it was that same winter a pregnant raccoon got access to the attic and the management thought we were making up stories. It ended up having babies and too bad I couldn't get video of them being carried down the latter. 

There were a couple days I swear it rained 3 inches and didn't stop until the next morning. 

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39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, I think that was Mark's first ever blog. Big WSW bust for PQR. They were banking on a 1/1/2004 repeat.

That week after winter break was fun stuff, watching the ticker tape on the news for school closures. I have a feeling kids nowadays won't get to experience that.

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That week after winter break was fun stuff, watching the ticker tape on the news for school closures. I have a feeling kids nowadays won't get to experience that.

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

Adding snow days to the end of the school year I don't think started until just a decade ago. Up to when I was graduating school districts always had the same dates they end school for us. It was like the first week or so of June.

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14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They did here for 2-25-19. Blew out a whole week of school that the kiddo had to make up. 20" of snow will do that.

We're still waiting for an outright Arctic airmass here. Haven't had one since Jan 2017. People like Jim would hate it here and would have already moved.

So.... you don't like it there?

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22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

'05-06 was the season at our Hillsboro apartments we had to fix a water leak after the heavy December rains. Water ran down the wall in my room. Then I think it was that same winter a pregnant raccoon got access to the attic and the management thought we were making up stories. It ended up having babies and too bad I couldn't get video of them being carried down the latter. 

There were a couple days I swear it rained 3 inches and didn't stop until the next morning. 

It’s far worse when a pregnant raccoon gives birth on the floor of your red Prius.

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So.... you don't like it there?

I'm grateful that my wife and her family saved me from the nightmare I was living in. Wouldn't trade that for the world. They seem to like it here and my mother in law who owns the property had a heart attack a month ago and she can't do much physically and can only be on her feet for short amounts of time. So it's probly best for her to retire and my goal is for us to move. Even if it's just somewhere like Bend, anywhere that has a better chance of seeing interesting weather than here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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